Ohio scares me

[Proud liberal 80]

I know a lot of you all don't like "the sky is falling!" mentality, but Ohio scares me and here is why:

1. Obama won the state twice (yes, it was close but he won)

2. I keep hearing that the Clinton campaign has a massive infrastructure advantage over Trump. She has dozens of campaign offices. That is all well and good, but what are those offices doing? Where is the community outreach and exciting the base? What is the purpose of these offices if they can't do that.

3. She is all over the airwaves with commercials outspending him and still losing. This was Jeb Bush's strategy during the primary and it didn't get him anywhere.

4. Most importantly, the popular Republican governor has not endorsed trump and has rebuked him.

I think the Senate race is hurting Clinton. Normally, when you think of coattails its the bottom of the ticket benefiting from the top, but Trump seems to be benefiting from a string incumbent Republican senator.

[liberal N proud]

1. The problem with Ohio is we suck a lot of people from...

West Virginia, Kentucky and Indiana.

[caber09]

3. OHIO

Warren and Bernie were there this past weekend, I believe Chelsea will be there over the next 2 days...Warren in particular was great at footage I saw in a few locations...but the swing states need to see more of Hillary....I believe she is in Fla today and then nothing else is on her schedule until the debate, and then 1 rally in PA... according to her events calendar...Kaine is in NV today or tomorrow....I understand prepping for the debate, but Trump is doing 3 rallies a day in these places, he is seemingly in NC OH FL several times a week....this is probably impacting the polls...I feel Obama was doing many rallies during his campaigns too...ad spend can only do so much...Obama won it 2x, shes outspending Trump, he has ZERO ground game..and she had been leading in the polls there...plus Kasich despises Trump...the campaign needs to get her out more. Am I just not seeing the correct calendar, let me know if I have missed any scheduled rallies coming up, thanks!

[yeoman6987]

5. Bernie, Warren, Chelsea are nice but Hillary needs to go weekly at least

President Obama didn't win Ohio by much. She needs to be in Ohio constantly. The three mentioned are not running for president.

[caber09]

7. Agreed 100%

Why isnt she holding rallies like she was earlier on and like how Obama had been in his campaigns....im having flashbacks to Coakley taking things for granted in MA and trying to coast....I dont think Hillary would do that, but why isnt she going to the swing states more than she is.....and it also opens her up to being ridiculed by Trump....these things have an impact on the polls and peoples views.

[Proud liberal 80]

2. I know

I am from Butler County, which is basically Kentucky

[Kilgore]

4. Not trying to pile on, have you looked at NC this morning?

Real Clear Politics has it as a tie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Your fear doesn't matter

"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain"

[Orrex]

8. That gives me a powerful craving for gom-jabbar

[LanternWaste]

34. Right. And the campaign will make the spice flow again as well, yes?

Right. And the campaign will make the spice flow again as well, yes?

Geez... how about "the force is with you" or "They call me Ishmael"?

[Loki Liesmith]

35. *shrug*

Some people draw inspiration from art. Others do not.

Whether you fall in the first camp or the second is of no concern of mine.


Cheers,

[0rganism]

38. Make Arrakis Great Again

so says Donald "Muad Dipshit" Trump

[JustAnotherGen]

9. If every black person in Ohio that is registered to vote - is allowed to vote

She wins.


The danger:
https://www.thenation.com/article/ohio-keeps-making-it-harder-to-vote/
The nation won't allow me to c/p - but it's an easy read. NOW is the time to volunteer to call Ohio. Right now - this minute! They have purged people deliberately and maliciously.

That's my belief and I'm sticking to it. Call now - help get people registered.


http://cookpolitical.com/story/8666

It's tough to overstate just how critical black voters have become to today's Democratic coalition, particularly when it comes to the Electoral College. Deconstructing exit poll data from 2012, African-American voters accounted for Obama's entire margin of victory in seven states: Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Without these states' 112 electoral votes, Obama would have lost decisively. African-Americans also accounted for almost all of Obama's margin in Wisconsin. All of these states, except Maryland, will be crucial 2016 battlegrounds.

[Satch59]

10. I keep reading that it's all about PA...

She doesn't need Ohio? Will try to find a link...

[JustAnotherGen]

11. I'm volunteering to drive people in PA

It's a numbers game.

It's not just Philly and Pittsburgh - we have to get rural democratics to the polls on election day in PA. I'm signed up for the Allentown Area.

[Satch59]

12. That's awesome! I'm phone banking in CO...

Here's the link to article about PA:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&smprod=nytcore-ipad

[JustAnotherGen]

14. Thank god their

Oppresive disenfranchisement laws were broken down. Thank god.

Now it's just a numbers game.

The more people we get to the polls in PA - the better the chance for the win.


The thing about Ohio is - in 2004 - it basically came down to a football stadium worth of voters.

From your article:

There is a complex relationship between the swing states that I model considering three things: the likely correlated impact of any major events or shocks in the days before Election Day (the correlated impact would be very high); the likely correlated errors between the polling and Election Day outcome (reasonably high); and the likely correlation of random chance on Election Day that affects voting (i.e., rain or shine, and this is not as high of correlation).

The fact that the probability of victory for Clinton in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania continues to be a few percentage points above her probability of winning the election reflects a very high correlation between the states in both how events could impact all of the states and the sizes and correlation of any potential polling error.

By the way, it is amazing that pundits spend so much time talking about how different this election is, how unique this election is, but the statisticians are looking at the same map and basically taking out Virginia and putting in Pennsylvania. Four years ago it was: Romney must take Florida, Ohio and Virginia. This year it is: Trump must take Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

FL, OH, and PA - no way the chump wins all three - unless -

There is a massive effort within each state to block the firewall - black voters.

[caber09]

13. The key is PA?

This is starting to sound more like the Gore/Kerry strategy than the Obama strategy, and that is scaring me....all the talk of expanding the map and landslide...the Clinton organization combining with the Obama organization to form the greatest campaign of all time....and now its hold PA and win the election...come on this cant be her strategy....Obama won because he was everywhere...IA NV OH NC FL PA.....we cannot rely on 1 state or it will be President Trump...I hope Hillary starts to get out there more already...come on Hillary!

[Satch59]

17. Hillary is keeping every state in play and her ground game is amazing...

I got from this article that if she wins PA, she's got it...and that makes me feel good.

They want Trump beaten into the ground I would think...so she and her great surrogates will be everywhere...

[caber09]

19. RE: Ohio

Thanks for talking me off the ledge, I hear all about the great ground game, and I hope it is everything they are promising...I cannot imagine how the Clinton machine/combined with Obama machine would fall short of their goal....Howeever, I would like to see her and her great surrogates out there more often campaigning.

[bigwillq]

15. I think Trump wins Ohio

But I've never been good at the prediction game

[LanternWaste]

31. What specifically leads you to predict that?

What specifically leads you to predict that?

[bigwillq]

40. Working class whites

who are struggling to make ends meet

[geek tragedy]

16. Ohio is window dressing, if we're winning there we've already crossed 270 somewhere else

This is going to be a razor-close election, and Ohio is generally more Republican than the rest of the country

[Kingofalldems]

18. Could you combine all your concern posts into one thread?

Here are more:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028177070

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028176521

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028176246

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028167763

Something seems amiss.

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. ROFL

Burn.

[yardwork]

22. Interesting.

[jcgoldie]

23. Wow he's really concerned!

[Kathy M]

27. Thank You for posting this

I was going to say something sarcastic . Figured saying Thank You was better .

[daligirrl]

29. "I know a lot of you all don't like 'the sky is falling!' mentality. . . "

He/she is concerned that we might think he/she is concerned?

[Proud liberal 80]

32. I thought this was a website to discuss political issues

With fellow progressives. Guess I was wrong, I am done with this site. Too many assholes.

[Kingofalldems]

33. Just do not understand all the hand wringing posts.

[Kingofalldems]

39. This will allay all your fears:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512431529

[alcibiades_mystery]

43. You'll get better!

[tenderfoot]

44. "I am done with this site. Too many assholes."

bye.

[Glassunion]

21. Seems like *somebody* went to Michigan State

I'll let myself out.

[tenderfoot]

24. Your concern has been duly noted

as per multiple links proving so.

[ileus]

25. 48 states....Hillary will win OHIO by 23 points.

[DarthDem]

26. Of Course It Does.

So does just about everything.

[itcfish]

28. Don't Count on Ohio

It will go Red

[irisblue]

30. Obamas' people knocked on my door 3 times by this date in 2012

Yes, the Ohio 2 congressional dist. is very blue, however Clinton's people haven't been here yet. And no I am not physically able to do door to door myself anymore.

[DeltaLitProf]

36. A key to GOTV with black Ohioans

HRC needs to make a speech in Cleveland outlining specific parts of a police reform plan. It needs to involve setting up community watchdog groups with teeth (including an ability to review personnel files and recommend firings). If HRC maintains her current posture of sparse comment and occasional generalities during this continual national crisis of black folk being killed over perceived noncompliance (and not all cases of noncompliance earn the death penalty, this must be said), she may get outflanked by Trump who I see today is pretending to be concerned about the killing in Tulsa.

At the least she is letting an opportunity to pick up the enthusiasm among her supporters in Ohio. At most Trump might steal the issue.

[treestar]

37. as to the second one

they could be doing plenty. It doesn't tend to make the news.

[mackdaddy]

41. The Ohio Primary numbers from this year are scary too.

There were close to double the number of Republican votes cast in the primary election this year vs Democratic votes cast. Over 2 million total votes for Repubs vs 1.2 million for all Democratic candidates.

I have had several people post that they had crossed over to vote Repub to throw their results, but that is still a big difference in total voters.

I have also seen many dozens of Trump yard signs, but no Clinton signs. This is in the rural areas of SE Ohio.

Thank god Trump is such an idiot or I am not sure we would have a chance in Ohio this year.

[roamer65]

42. I think Hillary will take Ohio.

Kasich is going to let it play out, with no interference.