Okay, I'm getting confused. What swing states does Cheeto Benito need to get to 270? Assuming he

[catbyte]

holds all traditionally red states, which isn't a lock. Thanks.

[VMA131Marine]

1. Red states + OH, NV, IA, PA, & FL would give Trump 270

Without PA, if he wins ME and NC he gets 269 EV. Trump would have to pick off a reliable blue state to win the EV without PA.

[catbyte]

13. Thank you!

[ChoppinBroccoli]

2. Seems To Me.......

............it looks like it's Pennsylvania. I used to think Ohio and Florida were the key to winning any Presidential election, but I've seen models where Hillary loses both Ohio and Florida and still wins (she does this because she wins Pennsylvania and Virginia). So since she can win WITHOUT Ohio and Florida (and Drumpf can't win UNLESS he wins BOTH Ohio and Florida), that leaves Pennsylvania and Virginia. Virginia is highly unlikely, since Tim Kaine is from there. That leaves Pennsylvania, which is also highly unlikely because it's been reliably blue for a LONG time, and he's way behind in the polls there. Realistically, Drumpf has no chance.

[catbyte]

12. Thanks!

[yardwork]

3. All of them. /nt

[onehandle]

4. PA is impossible for him.

Trust me.

[apcalc]

6. I hope you are right. I live in PA and I'm everyday watching the polls, listening to the people.

Tonight phone banking for HRC....

[BainsBane]

5. Florida, for sure

and Ohio

[exboyfil]

7. Here is a great website for modeling

http://www.270towin.com/

As you assign states it gives paths to victory.

[catbyte]

11. Thanks!

[ColemanMaskell]

8. "Election Update: The Top ‘Must-Win’ States For Trump And Clinton" at this url:

There is a 538 article from Sept 10th,
"Election Update: The Top ‘Must-Win’ States For Trump And Clinton"
at this url:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-top-must-win-states-for-trump-and-clinton/

Also see the 538 article from Sept 22 here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/

Scroll down a little. There is a figure that looks like a snake or some convoluted plumbing, blue on the left and reddish on the right. It gives a state by state breakdown. Pale blue and pink states toward the middle are swing states.

On the right you can click on "See polls and forecasts" under the USA map, and you get to a page that has a bigger USA map. You can move the mouse/cursor over any state to get the percentages for that state.

Note that 538 tends to express its numbers in terms of probability of winning the election, not in straight polling results.

Florida is an important state for either side to win.

Also see "The winding path to 270 electoral votes"
To see that, go here and page down a ways:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[catbyte]

10. Thanks! That's helpful.

[catbyte]

9. Thank you! I think I have to unplug and stop listening to cable news, lol. Thanks again to all.

[davidn3600]

14. FL, OH, NC, NV, CO, IA + Romney states

Trump is leading in IA and OH.

Florida..... the polls have been favorable to Hillary. But Florida tends to always tighten up as the election gets closer. Obama only won that state by a point in 2012. It's a funky state.

NC is a toss-up.

NV and CO seems to be leaning to Clinton since the last debate.

However, keep in mind some of this may be a post-debate bump. Which means it might not be fully sustained.

[exboyfil]

15. Using 270 to win

I assign both split congressional districts to Trump. I also give him Iowa, Ohio, Arizona and Georgia. I give Clinton Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia. These are the 7 paths to Trump victory.

FL, PA, NV
FL, PA, NC
FL, PA, CO
FL, NC, CO, NV
FL, NC, NV, NH
FL, NC, CO, NH
PA, NC, CO, NV, NH

It is highly unlikely that Trump would win without Florida. He must win either FL or PA in all cases.

[Proud Public Servant]

17. Really just 3

Romney states plus OH, FL, and PA would put him at 273.

Without PA, he needs IA (likely), NV (possible), and NH (unlikely); that would put him at 269, throw the election into the House, and get him elected.

But the real key is Florida. Realistically, I just don't see how he gets to 270 without it.