Nate Silver: Gallup is the most Republican-leaning major pollster this election cycle

[boxman15]

Check this out: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/



This is very interesting, and seems to confirm what many of us have been thinking with regards to Gallup. Rasmussen seems to be slightly less slanted to the right than we seem to think, though. What are your thoughts?

[hrmjustin]

1. I hate polls!!!! Except the ones that have Obama up, lol.

Actually i think Gallup is better than Rasmussen polls, but not by much.

[leveymg]

2. Some things never change. Gallup, NYT and the Chi Trib called it for Dewey in '48

http://www.kennesaw.edu/pols/3380/pres/1948.html

New York Times declared, “Thomas E. Dewey’s Election as President is a Foregone Conclusion.” Top pollsters predicted a Dewey win, as did leading national political writers. In fact, with the exception of Truman, everyone else was certain Dewey would be elected. Months before the election, Life ran a cover of a picture of Dewey with a caption that read, “The Next President of the United States.” Headline after headline screamed Dewey as President.

Truman, for his part, appeared to be running a campaign more against the Eightieth Congress than against Dewey. Truman presented a proposal to the Congress in February before the election that would guarantee the rights of blacks. This created conflict among the Democratic Party. At the convention, all of the Mississippi and half of the Alabama delegates walked out, for a total of 35, when Truman was praised for his “courageous stand on civil rights.” This lead to the split of the Party and the emergence of the Dixiecrats. South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond ran on the Party’s ticket. The Dixiecrats hoped to cause enough split in order to throw the election into the House, and therefore the South could prevent a civil-rights supporter from being elected. Many within the party were dissatisfied with Truman’s running mate, Senate Majority Leader Alben W. Barkley. Once again, there was defection, which lead to the announcement of Henry Wallace and running mate Senator Glen Taylor (ID-Dem.) on the Progressive ticket. New York Times stated,

“The [Democratic] Party might as well immediately concede the election to Dewey and save the wear and tear of campaigning.” With so much discontent going on within the party, the media hounded on the latest polls. A Gallup poll in 1948 reported that only 36% of the people thought that Truman was doing a good job as President. The nation was discontented with high taxes, rising cost of living, labor strife, and the Cold War that was brought on with the end of World War II.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. it's a one point graph - would have to see a trend/data over time.

[jeff47]

6. That graph is created by the trend.

Those numbers are created by looking at several polls in several states over time.

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. Understood - but it is one point of that snapshot. would like to see that array every two weeks

to see how the trends trend, shall we say!

[Drale]

4. You know you are bad

when you are to the right of Faux News

[Robbins]

5. Gallup

The problem I have had with them Is having Obama at 49 percent approval and have his reelect numbers at 45.Sometimes Romney will be leading at 46 percent and Obama will be at 49 percent approval.

[snooper2]

8. That Rasmussen dude is friends with Sean Beady Eye Prick Hannity..

thats all I need to know there