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Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:16 PM Jan 2017

It's not a question of blaming trade deals OR blaming automation.

Both have played a role in taking jobs away.

Both need to address.

And automation's role does NOT let the trade deals off the hook.

There's no reason for anyone progressive to trying to frame it as either/or.

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It's not a question of blaming trade deals OR blaming automation. (Original Post) Ken Burch Jan 2017 OP
Personally, I think it is 95+% automation. I also think our future, be it with guaranteed income or Hoyt Jan 2017 #1
Where I live it's 95% free trade hollowdweller Jan 2017 #2
There is no evidence that free trade is responsible for anywhere near that many jobs mythology Jan 2017 #7
That is the Free Traders bullshit excuse. Demsrule86 Jan 2017 #10
At the same time those jobs were supposedly shipped overseas, Honda, Toyota, Siemens, BMW, etc., Hoyt Jan 2017 #14
I don't know how many times I can see another job lost Jim Beard Jan 2017 #33
Those jobs didn't go overseas. Loss of radio stations probably has more to do with Internet and Hoyt Jan 2017 #37
This is true but because of the internet Jim Beard Jan 2017 #45
I want to add the simple invention of voice caller systems.... Jim Beard Jan 2017 #85
You said hollowdweller Jan 2017 #72
Toyota starts people at 14 an hour here I believe. hollowdweller Jan 2017 #73
Monsanto sent my friends Dad hollowdweller Jan 2017 #70
ROTF: Look at the chart below: Since the recession ended in 2009 eniwetok Jan 2017 #13
I'm with you on the guaranteed income thing. Ken Burch Jan 2017 #3
How would a foreign corporation force reduction in social spending? Hoyt Jan 2017 #5
By challenging it as a subsidy to domestic corporations Ken Burch Jan 2017 #8
Yet Canada and Trudeau are supporting TPP. I'd like to see a link to the case you cite. Hoyt Jan 2017 #11
I'm aware of a number of BainsBane Jan 2017 #29
Those provisions have been in trade agreements since at least 1959. Both Canada and Mexico are eager Hoyt Jan 2017 #34
I wasn't aware of that BainsBane Jan 2017 #43
so why don't corps just automate in the US? why do they move their factories overseas? nt TheFrenchRazor Jan 2017 #61
Razor, a lot of them do just automate here, eliminating millions of jobs. What do you have against Hoyt Jan 2017 #68
wages hollowdweller Jan 2017 #71
yeah, guaranteed income is totally going to happen. NOT. but thanks for helping get rid of our jobs. TheFrenchRazor Jan 2017 #62
Assuming you are young, I'd suggest training for jobs that are resistant to technology, outsourcing, Hoyt Jan 2017 #69
That's the line we just used in the election. hollowdweller Jan 2017 #74
What's your solution. You could have said, "All TVs will be made in America, and you can pay 3 times Hoyt Jan 2017 #77
There are benefits to automation that are hard to deny Kilgore Jan 2017 #4
Depends hollowdweller Jan 2017 #75
Automation includes technology. How many clerical and other jobs have computers eliminated? Hoyt Jan 2017 #6
it does matter if you are talking about certain jobs coming back JI7 Jan 2017 #9
People don't want "certain jobs". OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #22
but they do want "certain" jobs as seen with coal country JI7 Jan 2017 #24
Again, no. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #41
who has made the promise before ? the only thing they have voted for was coal JI7 Jan 2017 #42
Again, no. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #46
once again, it shows nothing about who they voted for that let them down JI7 Jan 2017 #47
Wow. Serious misunderstandings. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #48
who made promises and broke them ? they have voted for coal everytime , coal has destroyed them and JI7 Jan 2017 #49
To repeat: OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #51
yeah, i'm the elitist and a wealthy east coat nyc white man like donald trump is the common man for JI7 Jan 2017 #52
No one is arguing for Trump. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #53
LOL , they VOTED FOR trump . IT'S WHAT THEY WANT JI7 Jan 2017 #54
You've met every coal miner in the country and all of them voted for Trump? OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #55
i'm not disregarding them. i'm acknowledging them and their reason for voting the way they did JI7 Jan 2017 #56
In what post did you acknowledge anything about them except your OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #59
it is a fact most of them voted for Trump JI7 Jan 2017 #60
No, I am saying OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #66
He's not. He's a rich yankee. hollowdweller Jan 2017 #79
Wrong hollowdweller Jan 2017 #78
Exactly hollowdweller Jan 2017 #76
Too many people that count themselves "environmentalists" OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #84
The problem is these anti trade anti automation arguments barely scratch the surface... JHan Jan 2017 #12
Don't jump to conclusions. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #19
It's far from perfect however: JHan Jan 2017 #28
Wow. Serious misunderstandings. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #35
Well I never "attacked" Trumka... JHan Jan 2017 #64
No I guess you didn't read them. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #65
Interesting post BainsBane Jan 2017 #23
Yep, no chance of that culture changing with Trump. JHan Jan 2017 #30
That's because Germany actually cares about how its citizens fare, since the Nay Jan 2017 #83
Yeah but what if we used the tarriffs to create a big gov't jobs program? hollowdweller Jan 2017 #81
Progressives embraced globalization as part of the UN Millennial Development Goals (MDG). TheBlackAdder Jan 2017 #15
Exactly. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #17
You might remember DU OPs and posts last year, supporting sending jobs to countries to lift wages. TheBlackAdder Jan 2017 #20
And this is all reflective of the decline of American empire BainsBane Jan 2017 #21
Actually no. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #36
The hilarious part were all the columns and posts last year OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #25
The TPP would have given China keys to the kingdom. They would be able to undercut TPP partners. TheBlackAdder Jan 2017 #26
This message was self-deleted by its author BainsBane Jan 2017 #27
Yep. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #40
gapminder disagrees joshcryer Jan 2017 #58
Doesn't surprise me, as they promote globalization and poverty reduction measures. TheBlackAdder Jan 2017 #63
It is for defenders of corporate trade. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #16
Automation predates trade deals BainsBane Jan 2017 #18
It's too bad you don't know that corporations did dominate trade when NAFTA was passed. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #31
Obviously corporations did BainsBane Jan 2017 #32
You continue to misunderstand. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #39
I am not demeaning anyone BainsBane Jan 2017 #44
I'm not insulted. OrwellwasRight Jan 2017 #50
I lost two jobs at companies that moved to Mexico for cheaper labor. Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #38
If it was trade deals then the jobs could come back. joshcryer Jan 2017 #57
You ignore globalization itself -- jobs were moving to cheaper places, in the US and overseas before karynnj Jan 2017 #67
My father rarely worked for corporations back in the 50's. The companies... Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2017 #82
Very well said. Nt karynnj Jan 2017 #87
Not my intent to ignore it-I see NAFTA and TPP as manifestations of globalization. Ken Burch Jan 2017 #86
Bookmarking to read later. There are some excellent arguments on both sides here. LongTomH Jan 2017 #80
 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
1. Personally, I think it is 95+% automation. I also think our future, be it with guaranteed income or
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:24 PM
Jan 2017

something similar, will depend upon producing enough income to impose a "guaranteed income tax" on corporations that have partnered with government (not unlike some Scandinavian countries) and that is going to require us to pursue global trade even more vigorously. Now, is not the time for isolationism, Nationalism, trading among ourselves, etc. Countries like Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, China, etc., will be sowing up international trade while we try to turn back the clocks.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
2. Where I live it's 95% free trade
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:32 PM
Jan 2017

But really automation wouldn't be a bad thing if people got paid more for the hours they did work.

I can remember when we all thought automation would bring a shorter work week and more free time. Turns out all the savings went to the top not the working class.
 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
7. There is no evidence that free trade is responsible for anywhere near that many jobs
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:45 PM
Jan 2017

As a reality check, we have a 55 billion dollar trade surplus of the countries we have trade deals with. We have a 579 billion dollar trade deficit with countries we don't have trade deals with. American manufacturing has gone up by 20% in recent years, but manufacturing employment has gone up by only 5%, much of which can be attributed to the economic recovery under Obama. But more and more of that work is done via automation and so the jobs aren't coming back.

https://www.ft.com/content/dec677c0-b7e6-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

The US did indeed lose about 5.6m manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010. But according to a study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, 85 per cent of these jobs losses are actually attributable to technological change — largely automation — rather than international trade.

The think-tank found that although there has been a steep decline in factory jobs, the manufacturing sector has become more productive and industrial output has been growing.

“Simply put, we are producing more with fewer people,” notes Mireya Solís, a senior fellow at Brookings.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/29/news/economy/us-manufacturing-jobs/

Manufacturing jobs in the U.S. actually increased in the years after the North America Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada went into effect in 1994.

But the story changed dramatically in 2000. Since then, the U.S. has shed 5 million manufacturing jobs, a fact opponents of free trade mention often.

But there's another big factor: technology. Robots and machines are also replacing workers. The tech trend would have happened regardless of trade.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/manufacturing-jobs-are-never-coming-back/

Here’s the problem: Whether or not those manufacturing jobs could have been saved, they aren’t coming back, at least not most of them. How do we know? Because in recent years, factories have been coming back, but the jobs haven’t. Because of rising wages in China, the need for shorter supply chains and other factors, a small but growing group of companies are shifting production back to the U.S. But the factories they build here are heavily automated, employing a small fraction of the workers they would have a generation ago.

Look at the chart below: Since the recession ended in 2009, manufacturing output — the value of all the goods that U.S. factories produce, adjusted for inflation — has risen by more than 20 percent, because of a combination of “reshoring” and increased domestic demand. But manufacturing employment is up just 5 percent. And much of that job growth represents a rebound from the recession, not a sustainable trend. (The Washington Post’s Abha Bhattarai had a great story this week on what the much-touted “manufacturing renaissance” really looks like through the eyes of one Georgia town.)

Demsrule86

(68,566 posts)
10. That is the Free Traders bullshit excuse.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:48 PM
Jan 2017

The jobs in my hometown in Ohio did not go because they needed less people...nope...they shipped them off to some third world country where labor was dirt cheap...look at Hershey as well.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
14. At the same time those jobs were supposedly shipped overseas, Honda, Toyota, Siemens, BMW, etc.,
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 10:38 PM
Jan 2017

opened plants here. Sorry, but you can't just look at one tiny area to get the economic impact. I get the non-economic impact to those displaced is catastrophic, but millions of people retrain and move to new locations every year. Where I spent a lot of time as a youth was largely textiles plants. They are rotting building now. On the other hand, people can by underwear at 1/3 the cost of something made here.

Do you have something against poor people in third world countries? Lots of isolationists, Nationalists, etc., treat them like scabs.

Personally I believe everyone on earth deserves a chance to share in the wealth. Some poor peasant who goes from 50 cents a day in a rice paddy is plenty happy making $0.35 an hour while they learn a new skill that gives them a future. If they weren't happy, they'd stay in the rice paddy. To the extent a corporation makes extra money by moving production overseas, there should be a tax on profits to offset that and to be spent on social issues here.

 

Jim Beard

(2,535 posts)
33. I don't know how many times I can see another job lost
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:24 AM
Jan 2017

and that is not from manufacturing. Look at radio, small local stations in many, many areas and each one had a staff, morning markets and later music programming. That is not a manufacturing job, it is a lost job all over the country. I know of one country station that has basically been rented out to programing made buy the Farm Chemical company. I don't guess anyone is ever at the station except to change a light bulb.

Look at Democratic talk radio, fading fast.

How about newspapers? The trade area hub of about 250,000 has a news paper Sunday edition that is now big as the small.

Just through the years television has been gaining ground with local news.

Just make a game and look around at the the jobs we used to know that are gone. You can also list what is not being made today. What is obsolete.

Its not just a factory closing, its everywhere.

There is just too much money at the top and the taxes on them are waaaay tooo low.

We need to tax them at a very high rate and if they use that money to create jobs within our borders, they get to keep what they earn. A carrot and stick.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
37. Those jobs didn't go overseas. Loss of radio stations probably has more to do with Internet and
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:34 AM
Jan 2017

subscription stations. Pretty much like buggy whip manufacturing.

 

Jim Beard

(2,535 posts)
45. This is true but because of the internet
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:04 AM
Jan 2017

and automation there are many things no longer needed. Are manufacturing jobs the only ones that count?

 

Jim Beard

(2,535 posts)
85. I want to add the simple invention of voice caller systems....
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 08:17 PM
Jan 2017

they have gotten rid of a lot of people and for the worst. Just one more, and if you just think about it, its more than you think. What happened to those receptionist that answered the phone and knew to tell you your doctor was on vacation and would not return for a week. I have been in those situations and don't like it one damn bit.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
72. You said
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:34 PM
Jan 2017

"Sorry, but you can't just look at one tiny area to get the economic impact. "


True, but with our electoral college system when the states that have been hit never recover and are ignored then it can have a terrible effect on the political process as we have just seen by the defection of rustbelt states.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
73. Toyota starts people at 14 an hour here I believe.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:42 PM
Jan 2017

I had a friend who in 1978 worked in a unionized grocery store and made 8 dollars an hour stocking and running the register.

Using a CPI inflation calculator it says that would equal 29 dollars and hour now.

So not only do those jobs that came back in pay less, due to automation there are less of them.

From the 30's to the 70's Meat packer pay was around 20 an hour.
Now it averages about 12.

http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/250/meat-packing.html
 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
70. Monsanto sent my friends Dad
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:26 PM
Jan 2017

Who worked there in WV first to India and then to Brazil to open new plants that would do what ours in our hometown did.

Avtex Fibers plant moved to somewhere in Asia. My grandad was a machinist and union organizer for the Textile Workers Of America there.

My other grandad worked at Allied Chemical, not sure where it went but I think overseas.

Union Carbide was a huge employer in our area and now the majority of what they did here is done in other countries.

eniwetok

(1,629 posts)
13. ROTF: Look at the chart below: Since the recession ended in 2009
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 10:24 PM
Jan 2017

Really? We're to believe that when the "recession ended" life was back to normal? When did the recession "end"? Was it the summer of 2009? When did the job loss end? Was it Q4 2009?

Sorry... the recession ended when the economic collapse ended. It's a deceptive yardstick since it took 3-4 years to get GDP back up to pre-recession levels in constant dollars.


------------current $ constant 2009 $
2007q4 14,685.3 14,991.8
2008q1 14,668.4 14,889.5
2008q2 14,813.0 14,963.4
2008q3 14,843.0 14,891.6
2008q4 14,549.9 14,577.0
2009q1 14,383.9 14,375.0
2009q2 14,340.4 14,355.6
2009q3 14,384.1 14,402.5
2009q4 14,566.5 14,541.9
2010q1 14,681.1 14,604.8
2010q2 14,888.6 14,745.9
2010q3 15,057.7 14,845.5
2010q4 15,230.2 14,939.0
2011q1 15,238.4 14,881.3
2011q2 15,460.9 14,989.6


 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
3. I'm with you on the guaranteed income thing.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:33 PM
Jan 2017

And it doesn't have to be "isolationism".

We just need to make sure that, if we have trade deals, they don't give corporations the chance to get progressive labor, environmental, or consumer safety laws thrown out OR to let those corporations force social spending down by allowing them to challenge it as a subsidy or tariff.

It ought to be possible to have global trade without giving corporations the power to nullify democracy.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
8. By challenging it as a subsidy to domestic corporations
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:47 PM
Jan 2017

Or as a tariff levied against foreign corporations(they've done this with social and educational spending under NAFTA-in that cases, it was U.S. corporations doing that to Canada.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
11. Yet Canada and Trudeau are supporting TPP. I'd like to see a link to the case you cite.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:51 PM
Jan 2017

I've found that when you actually read the actions behind trade disputes, the facts are totally different from what some blog posts.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
29. I'm aware of a number of
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:58 PM
Jan 2017

actions against environmental regulations that have resulted from Chapter 11. of NAFTA. It's a very dangerous provision. This is old but enlightening. http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/tradingdemocracy.html

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
34. Those provisions have been in trade agreements since at least 1959. Both Canada and Mexico are eager
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:30 AM
Jan 2017

to sign more similar agreements. That tells me something about how much they want foreign investment, just like European countries, Japan, etc. There are over 3000 trade agreements with the same provisions. In a few years, there will be several hundred more. Maybe we won't sign any more, to our long-term detriment.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
43. I wasn't aware of that
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:54 AM
Jan 2017

I find them highly disconcerting. What troubles me is that their decisions are not reviewable by courts, even SCOTUS, in member nations.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
68. Razor, a lot of them do just automate here, eliminating millions of jobs. What do you have against
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:17 PM
Jan 2017

poor people in foreign countries? Do you consider them like dirty scabs?

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
71. wages
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:32 PM
Jan 2017

When the steel industry couldn't compete here they closed the mills, moved overseas and used the money they saved in wages to build new automated plants. One of the reasons the steel industry became noncompetitive here was their refusal to modernize US plants.

 

TheFrenchRazor

(2,116 posts)
62. yeah, guaranteed income is totally going to happen. NOT. but thanks for helping get rid of our jobs.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 04:32 AM
Jan 2017
 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
69. Assuming you are young, I'd suggest training for jobs that are resistant to technology, outsourcing,
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:23 PM
Jan 2017

etc. Teachers, health care, plumbers, law enforcement, construction, sales, transportation, hi-tech manufacturing, etc., are resistant to outsourcing. Get as broad an education as possible so that you can transition with the times. Otherwise -- if you don't think there is any chance of something like a guaranteed income -- life will likely be quite miserable. Good luck.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
77. What's your solution. You could have said, "All TVs will be made in America, and you can pay 3 times
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:57 PM
Jan 2017

what you pay now." How do you think that would have gone over?

Look, I know this is a serious problem here and lots of people have gotten hurt. Some were hurt because time moves on -- like buggy whip manufacturers. Some were hurt by technology, computers. Used to be millions of people working in decent paying clerical jobs. Now one person can handle a lot of clerical work with the applications available. Some jobs went overseas. That created other jobs here and demand from overseas for our products. Some people who would not move or retrain, have been hurt the worst. But we aren't going to make it trading among ourselves.

Personally, I'm for partnering with business -- like Scandinavian countries do -- and taxing them accordingly to provide income, healthcare, etc., to those who are unfortunately displaced. I don't know how you stop it otherwise because isolating ourselves will not work long-term. Of course, that's going to require changing corporate leadership, probably by incentives and penalties. Those in your area who though Trump has the solution, have likely made their plight worse.

Kilgore

(1,733 posts)
4. There are benefits to automation that are hard to deny
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:38 PM
Jan 2017

In a former job for a company that assembled machinery. There was a task that required the repeated lifting of a 50 pound component as part of the process. It was not uncommon for workers performing the task to eventually suffer shoulder and back problems. The company automated the process so the component is now placed robotically and the bolts fastening it tightened as part of the process.

The assembly job was eliminated after automation. So, which is the better solution. Continue having workers do a job that eventually causes them harm? Or accept automation?

Having been on that assembly line, I vote for automation.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
75. Depends
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:48 PM
Jan 2017

The guy who is injured on the job gets on disability or compensation and keeps their house.

The guy who never got a job due to automation lives in a camper on his parents land and gets addicted to opiates because there's no jobs.
 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
6. Automation includes technology. How many clerical and other jobs have computers eliminated?
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:43 PM
Jan 2017

Used to be almost anyone who could read, type, talk on the phone, etc., could get a job. Not anymore.

JI7

(89,249 posts)
9. it does matter if you are talking about certain jobs coming back
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:47 PM
Jan 2017

which is what the biggest complaint is about.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
22. People don't want "certain jobs".
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:31 PM
Jan 2017

They want good pay, good benefits, and security.

Factory jobs aren't "good jobs" because they are fun. In fact they are mind numbing I'm told by every one I know who has ever worked in a factory. (I've done mind numbing retail, which did not come with health care, a pension, or a high wage, so I'm not above mind numbing work.).

However, manufacturing jobs have also been traditionally popular, coveted jobs because they paid well and allowed people to rise into the middle class without going to college and in some cases without even graduating high school.

Everyone deserves a good job with good pay and benefits and a secure income, regardless of his or her education. Education does not define someone's worth as a human being or right to a decent life.

We don't need the 1950s back, nor are "factory jobs" a cure all.

We need the ability to make a good life by working hard. That's been killed by Wal-Mart, Uber, Amazon, off-shoring, greed, right-to-work laws, union-busting, and the like.

JI7

(89,249 posts)
24. but they do want "certain" jobs as seen with coal country
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:39 PM
Jan 2017

Where hillary had a proposal for clean energy which is where the future is and better for their health.

And think trump will bring back those old jobs which are automated.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
41. Again, no.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:49 AM
Jan 2017

Coal country doesn't want empty promises of the jobs and training that will come.

They have heard it before. Coal jobs are dangerous and dirty. Coal miners get crushed in cave-ins and die of black lung and cancer. It's a horrible job. But it is a job that allows you to have a decent home and send your kids to college. Coal miners have been made lots of promises by politicians about safer jobs, infrastructure investment, etc. And they were all broken.

So the way to get coal miners out of the mines is to create the clean energy investments first, so that people can go straight into new jobs.

Otherwise, to coal miners, it is just a case of fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
46. Again, no.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:11 AM
Jan 2017

Here are lots of example of failed promises to coal country, whether it's safety, pensions, or economic development:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/29/us/politics/coal-country-is-wary-of-hillary-clintons-pledge-to-help.html
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/16/how-america-failed-my-family-of-coal-miners.html
http://www.jwj.org/keeping-the-nations-promise-to-miners
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/17/372685/-



Your lack of knowledge of the way the US has taken the coal from coal country--to fuel urban growth and the very electricity that those of us who are using the internet right now are relying on--while returning little by way of environmental clean up, on the job safety, education, or economic development, is unfortunate. All humans deserve dignity. No matter how much you despise the work they do even as you benefit from it.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
48. Wow. Serious misunderstandings.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:21 AM
Jan 2017

Your utter dismissal of people you don't know and don't understand is exactly why the Democratic Party does lost so utterly and completely in November.

You do not get people to vote for you by making promises, breaking them, and them making new promises.

You do not get people to vote for you by treating them as rubes who have learned nothing from every broken promise they have been given over the years.

You do not get people to vote for you by mocking them.

You're not even worth arguing with. You posted in less time than it would have taken to visit one of the links I posted, must less all them. I'm making an effort, you're acting like it's the Monty Python argument clinic where all that is required is the automatic gainsaying of anything the other person said.

Keep living in your elitist cocoon and doing nothing to improve the Party. Good night.

JI7

(89,249 posts)
49. who made promises and broke them ? they have voted for coal everytime , coal has destroyed them and
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:22 AM
Jan 2017

killed them but they still vote for it.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
51. To repeat:
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:26 AM
Jan 2017

You're not even worth arguing with. I'm making an effort, you're acting like it's the Monty Python argument clinic where all that is required is the automatic gainsaying of anything the other person said.

Keep living in your elitist cocoon and doing nothing to improve the Party. Good night.

JI7

(89,249 posts)
52. yeah, i'm the elitist and a wealthy east coat nyc white man like donald trump is the common man for
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:29 AM
Jan 2017

these good people in coal country.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
53. No one is arguing for Trump.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:51 AM
Jan 2017

Nice deflection that again proves you've read nothing I have posed. I am just telling you why coal miners are unlikely to believe someone who says I want to destroy all your jobs but don't worry, I promise we will invest here and create new ones.

But you're dying to have the last word in a debate you barely participated in though, aren't you?

Still, I'll repeat:

You're not even worth arguing with. I'm making an effort, you're acting like it's the Monty Python argument clinic where all that is required is the automatic gainsaying of anything the other person said.

Keep living in your elitist cocoon and doing nothing to improve the Party. Good night.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
55. You've met every coal miner in the country and all of them voted for Trump?
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:59 AM
Jan 2017

Are you a comedian on the side? Because you're hilarious.

Thanks for once again completely disrespecting an entire group of people. It's respect like that which gains votes for the Democratic Party from those who feel disenfranchised by it.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
59. In what post did you acknowledge anything about them except your
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:44 AM
Jan 2017

assumptions, judgmentalism, and contempt?

JI7

(89,249 posts)
60. it is a fact most of them voted for Trump
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:54 AM
Jan 2017

you are the one trying to deny it and the reasons for it.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
66. No, I am saying
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 11:47 AM
Jan 2017

that to get them to vote for HRC, who said she wanted to destroy their jobs, the Democratic Party needed to do more than make unsubstantiated promises about what they will do "some day" after every job in Appalachia has been destroyed.

That needs to be the focus: make the investments in clean energy jobs in Appalachia as step one, stop using coal is step two.

I hope that you realize that economically, coal will go away once other sources of energy are cheaper Which is another reason you make the investments BEFORE you throw coal mining families out of work. Once we invest enough in alternative energies, they will become cheaper and more economical to use. People use coal as an energy source because it is often the cheapest alternative. Investments in clean energy will make that not true. But if you do that without ensuring good families wages jobs for hundreds of thousands of coal mining families, they are never going to vote for you. Who is going to vote to deny themselves an income. I'll tell you who: NOBODY. So it is about the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates reaching out to them. And saying stupid stuff about destroying their jobs isn't cutting it.

Is this about getting more votes for Democratic candidates or not? Because that's what I'm about. Your goal, except to mock and demean coal miners, seem wholly unclear.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
79. He's not. He's a rich yankee.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 03:00 PM
Jan 2017

But when Clinton said that thing about "putting coal miners out of work", I mean that couldn't have been a worse thing to say.
 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
78. Wrong
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:58 PM
Jan 2017

I live in WV and we have been a reliable democratic state for years and years.

Only recently have we gone republican. The GOP just recently got a majority in the legislature for the first time in like 80 years or something.

So the state wasn't lost to us, we just lost it ourselves.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
76. Exactly
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:54 PM
Jan 2017

I can remember when almost all anti strip mining activists here were transplants. People made so much good money that they didn't want to question the coal companies.

Then with Mountaintop Removal communities suffered the environmental fallout of the mining but due to the need for less people the economic benefit was less to the area. More natives became environmentalists.

So I understand the pollution caused by coal but we will never make progress toward eliminating that totally, as the past election just showed, until we FIRST provide an economic alternative to the areas. Environmentalists maybe would do well to focus on that FIRST.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
84. Too many people that count themselves "environmentalists"
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 04:26 PM
Jan 2017

here, seem to think that comes with a license to be disdainful towards humanity and to discount the very real human need to eat and make a living. By mocking coal miners, oil workers, pipe line builders, and whoever else they despise by saying "why don't they just go get a real job," they betray a disturbing lack of commitment to Democratic principles.

It's not either/or.

Just as there are no jobs on a dead planet, there is no justice in a clean environment that exists without human dignity.

JHan

(10,173 posts)
12. The problem is these anti trade anti automation arguments barely scratch the surface...
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 10:23 PM
Jan 2017

Why I get upset with blaming trade deals: it's senseless. High tariffs and trade wars don't help people, or small business owners.

I'll just paste what I wrote elsewhere in a thread about automation/mechanization:

We can look at Germany: Germany, for example, lost less jobs than we did, despite increased automation, which is not to say they didn't lose jobs but job loss occurred at a slower pace than we experienced here. Germany is also strongly unionized.

The culture in Germany is different to ours - here, our business approach places too much stock in shareholder value, which is great for profit in the short term but terrible for sustained wealth creation. This culture permeates our approach in everything - and contributed to the spending and lending habits which led to the crash..this is why blaming Glass Steagall for the crash was always myopic and .. frankly stupid.

The problem in the U.S of A is that we don't invest in US - the people - enough. We prioritize profit above all else.

Illustrating Germany for contrast:

Germany set about enacting a range of comprehensive economic reforms to increase the competitiveness of Germany’s economy throughout the 2000s, including making its tax code more competitive, articulating The High-Tech Strategy for Germany, increasing investment in apprenticeship programs, increasing investment in its Fraunhofer network focusing on investments in industrially relevant applied R&D, and during the Great Recession introducing the Kurzarbeit (short-time work) program. Kurzarbeit helped [bGerman companies respond to the drop in global demand engendered by the Great Recession not by firing workers outright (as was too often the case in the United States), but by cutting their work to part-time and using the remaining time to retrain/reskill them (through a program collaboratively funded by German industry, labor unions, and state and federal governments) and so when global demand recovered German firms were fully staffed, and with a workforce reskilled to leverage the technologies and manufacturing processes of the future. And of course, Germany is not alone; many more of America’s competitors—including Japan, Korea, Holland, Taiwan, and even China—worked feverishly throughout the 2000s to bolster their science, technology, and innovation ecosystems that underpin the competitiveness and innovation potential of their private sector enterprises]."

We didn't adopt much of those strategies for a number of reasons - the German government controlled these initiatives for the most part, and we have to contend with sily anti-government republican thinking here.

And "Competitiveness at a crossroads" explains it more in detail:

http://www.hbs.edu/competitiveness/Documents/competitiveness-at-a-crossroads.pdf

"international firms became less invested in “the commons”—shared resources such as pools of skilled labor, supplier networks, an educated populace, and the physical and technical infrastructure on which U.S. productivity and competitiveness depend.
"


This is where the elites failed - the problem wasn't Globalization but our stupid greedy response to it (greed isn't bad but stupid greed is dumb), and the failure to protect the middle class:

"How did America respond to pressure on its middle class? Unfortunately,our society did not mobilize to invest so that the middle class could compete in the global marketplace. Instead, America and Americans maintained an illusion of growing prosperity. Abetted by lenders and government institutions, consumers with stagnant incomes borrowed more to buy houses and fund consumption.

Government itself made unsustainable promises to the middle class, pledging to cover more healthcare expenses of future retirees, to employ more individuals in government jobs, and to pay generous pensions to many in the public sector, while reducing effective tax rates across the board between 1980 and 2010. These promises, coupled with a deep recession and two wars, have left government finances in a fragile state.

As debts and unfunded liabilities have risen, federal, state, and local government expenditures that support long-run growth in productivity and competitiveness—on items such as infrastructure, training, education, and basic research—have stagnated or fallen as a portion of GDP. Moreover, a resulting need to make tough, unpalatable choices has contributed to paralysis in our political process."


Addressing some of those harmful effects was all over the democratic platform this year - even pressuring Wall St. When HRC spoke of the need for Wall St to see the value of regulation through regulating themselves she understood that public regulatory bodies cannot do everything - there has to be forms of self regulation. One of the ways to tackle it is to deal with consolidation since it hampers the ability of business to self regulate, there are other methods as well.

Hopefully I'm making sense because in a nutshell, protectionist ideas and demonizing trade deals make for great slogans but don't solve the underlying problems with management/culture. These problems require creative solutions across the board - and above all we need to acknowledge that the job market is forever changing.

2016 revealed how ill prepared we are - not a single debate question dealt with automation and mechanization - which is crazy - and HRC was the only candidate who had some semblance of a tech plan.

Even Climate Change was ignored in the Presidential Debates.

We're sipping some strange kool aid when we think we will get the 50's and 60's back. We can't afford retro thinking right now.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
19. Don't jump to conclusions.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:22 PM
Jan 2017

Those who oppose the TPP are not now and never were "anti-trade". We are and were against further enshrining corporate greed in the rules of globalization. There can be trade with rules that promote shared prosperity, and that what the AFL-CIO, Sierra Club, and Public Citizen were fighting for. But it is knee jerk reactions like yours undermine efforts for better trade rules by maligning those who fight for them as "anti-trade."

http://time.com/4065267/trans-pacific-partnership-american-workers/
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/11/1392631/-AFLCIO-President-Richard-Trumka-s-letter-to-President-Barack-Obama-SHREDDING-TPP
http://www.aflcio.org/Issues/Trade/Trans-Pacific-Partnership-Free-Trade-Agreement-TPP/Report-on-the-Impacts-of-the-Trans-Pacific-Partnership
http://www.sierraclub.org/compass/2016/11/after-tpp-here-s-progressive-vision-for-trade
http://prospect.org/article/new-rules-road-progressive-approach-globalization

JHan

(10,173 posts)
28. It's far from perfect however:
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:55 PM
Jan 2017

From the TIME Article:

" Omitting currency rules from TPP will undermine all of its touted market-opening benefits. Currency manipulation has already caused thousands of U.S. factories to close and millions of workers to lose their jobs. A TPP without currency rules turns a mighty river of offshoring into a tsunami."

Currency manipulation is a sovereign issue, competitors don't like it. And we aren't innocent here - we've indirectly manipulated our currency via the quantitative easing program.

It is understandable Trumka would be concerned but I'm not swayed:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/03/12/why-obamas-key-trade-deal-with-asia-would-actually-be-good-for-american-workers/?utm_term=.2d5da34b0526

Further, the TPP’s lower trade barriers would barely affect import competition faced by U.S. manufacturers. The World Trade Organization counts 160 members, including every major economy and most importantly China, which joined in 2001. According to the World Bank, WTO members can export manufacturing goods to the U.S. market at an average tariff of just 2 percent. Within the proposed TPP, the United States already has bilateral trade deals that have eliminated all manufacturing tariffs with five of the 11 members: Australia, Canada, Chile, Mexico, and Singapore. Cutting already rock-bottom U.S. manufacturing tariffs to zero for the remaining TPP countries would thus have negligible effects on U.S. producers. These countries already enjoy largely unfettered access to U.S. markets. The results of existing economic analyses on the responsiveness of global trade to manufacturing tariffs suggest that the consequences of the TPP for U.S. manufacturing employment likely would be slight.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tpp-could-reverse-slide-in-global-trade-world-bank-says-2016-01-06

https://www.fas.usda.gov/topics/trans-pacific-partnership-tpp

The world bank report and USDA reports are thorough. There's a projection of a 1% increase in employment and 20% increase in exports. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4607.pdf

And the risk of not joining: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/opinion/a-retreat-from-tpp-would-empower-china.html?_r=0

It is far from a perfect trade deal ( no such thing exists) but the cons don't outweigh the pros contained within. I'll side with Obama on this one.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
35. Wow. Serious misunderstandings.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:31 AM
Jan 2017

The danger of TPP is not the level of reduction of tariffs. Show me where the AFL-CIO said that. So you attack the AFL-CIO's argument with a straw man, by citing an argument never made. Classic exemplar of a weak argument.

The real danger is the increase in corporate power and influence over our rules and the rules of every country in the TPP by the enshrinement of ISDS, limitations on financial services regulations, limitations on food safety regulations, and totally ineffective labor and environmental rules.

You want to trade the loss of our democracy for a less than one percent gain in GDP? Those are values I'm not down with.

The US's own official report from the ITC projected only .15% growth after 15 years. That's laughable. It's less than an average month's growth.
https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4607.pdf
http://www.aflcio.org/content/download/175097/4162449/ITCmemo2.pdf

And the ITC's report doesn't even include measurements of welfare losses due to weaker regulations or increased corporate power.

The Tufts University Report indicated that the US would have net GDP growth after ten years of negative .54%, a net reduction in the labor share of national income of 1.31%, and 450,000 jobs lost. http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/16-01Capaldo-IzurietaTPP.pdf

The risk of joining is far greater than joining:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/23/opinion/why-the-tpp-deal-wont-improve-our-security.html
http://www.aflcio.org/content/download/156731/3897641/TPPChinaReport.pdf
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/291725-the-national-security-case-against-tpp

And as to your argument on currency, you don't understand the difference between quantitative easing and manipulating capital accounts. This is a great explanation of the entire issue, including why quantitative easing is not the same as currency manipulation: https://democrats-waysandmeans.house.gov/media-center/blog/tpp-focus-need-address-currency-manipulation-tpp-and-why-us-monetary-policy-not

Moreover, fiscal policy is also a "sovereign issue" yet it is included in the TPP through the Procurement Chapter. Labor policy is a sovereign issue," yet it is included in the TPP through the Labor Chapter. Sovereignty has nothing to do with it. All international agreements impact sovereignty to one degree or another. The questions to ask are whether the tree offs are worth it (in the case of the TPP, no) and does the agreement enshrine democratically determined standards or something else (in the case of TPP, it enshrines corporate standards for investment and financial services and food safety, which I do not support).

JHan

(10,173 posts)
64. Well I never "attacked" Trumka...
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 10:41 AM
Jan 2017
"The danger of TPP is not the level of reduction of tariffs. Show me where the AFL-CIO said that. So you attack the AFL-CIO's argument with a straw man, by citing an argument never made. Classic exemplar of a weak argument"


I was referring to his point about Currency Manipulation, and included the WaPo link to address some of his other concerns. So it wasn't a strawman at all.

And as I said, quantitative easing is an indirect form of currency manipulation - it impacts currency. The link you provided explained the reasons and justifications for it, and I'm not surprised it came from congress, nonetheless the effects of quantitative easing are there to see: the difference between easing and currency manipulation is slimmer than a hair's breadth : http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090915/quantitative-easing-vs-currency-manipulation.asp#ixzz4PkKiOb98

"Quantitative easing, while considered an unconventional monetary policy, is just an extension of the usual business of open market operations. Open market operations is the mechanism by which a central bank either expands or contracts the money supply through the buying or selling of government securities in the open market. The goal is to reach a specified target for short-term interest rates that will have an effect on all other interest rates within the economy.

While expansionary open market operations increase the money supply and decrease interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic activity, the mechanism has limited effect when short-term interest rates are near or below zero. To lessen this ineffectiveness at the zero-bound, more unconventional methods of monetary policy need to be used such as quantitative easing, which targets commercial bank and private sector assets with much longer maturities. Quantitative easing occurs on a much larger scale than smaller scale, week-to-week open market operations.

Quantitative easing is meant to stimulate a sluggish economy when typical expansionary open market operations have failed. With an economy in recession and interest rates at the zero-bound, the Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of quantitative easing in 2009, 2010 and 2012, adding more than $3.5 trillion to its balance sheet by October 2014. Intended to stimulate the domestic economy, these stimulus measures had indirect affects on the exchange rate, putting downward pressure on the dollar.

Such pressure on the dollar wasn't totally negative in the eyes of U.S. policymakers since it would make exports relatively cheaper, which is another way to help stimulate the economy. However, the move came with criticisms from policymakers in other countries complaining that a weakened U.S. dollar was hurting their exports, as well as flooding their economies with excessive amounts of capital that could lead to bubbles in asset prices."


Currency manipulation laws in an agreement with 12 Pacific Rim countries is over reach and currency manipulation won't iron out the wrinkles in global commerce. A country may devalue to boost its exports, or use any other artificial methods to stimulate their economy. If we demand that countries not devalue their currency either up or down, our consumers and businesses will feel the effects if they rely on imported goods from these countries because, quite rightly, those countries will retaliate.

"You want to trade the loss of our democracy for a less than one percent gain in GDP? Those are values I'm not down with. "


It doesn't violate our democracy. This is an argument against free trade used against NAFTA, and every free trade agreement that rears its head. No foreign government or body can compel us to act in ways we don't wish.Scott Lincicome and Bill Watson succinctly put it:

"..TPA and U.S. trade agreements are not an assault on American sovereignty, contrary to the “Obamatrade” clams. FTAs embody unenforceable promises governments make to each other. Domestic governments—here, Congress—retain the sole authority to ignore those promises and violate international commitments, and they (unfortunately) do so frequently. Foreign governments cannot force their trading partners to comply with the terms of an FTA—the only extra-national consequence of a violation is that other parties to the agreement may abrogate their commitments in a commensurate amount (e.g., by raising tariffs on imports from the United States from levels that were lowered in the FTA). Moreover, every U.S. trade agreement permits the parties to act outside the agreed disciplines in the name of, among other things, national security, public health and safety, or environmental protection. Thus, the idea that TPA and FTAs violate U.S. sovereignty or regulatory autonomy is patently false.

The political wrangling that goes into creating reciprocal trade agreements is messy, but they have thus far proven to be the most successful mechanism to substantially reduce U.S. trade barriers. Without our FTAs, protectionist rent-seeking could close the United States off from the global economy, and Americans would be stuck working harder for less money. If politicians were angels, FTAs wouldn’t be necessary. But we all know better, now, don’t we?"


And if those authors are too libertarian for you, even Vox took issue with the opposition to the TPP by Sanders ( and others on the left) http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11139718/bernie-sanders-trade-global-poverty

While there maybe a international tribunal for disputes, they don't impact domestic law. International Tribunals already exist, via treaties, and Free Trade Agreements aren't even as binding as Treaties.

Nothing in the TPP negotiations pointed to us lowering our standards regarding labor or environment. In fact, the pressure is on countries in the TPP region to raise the floor to our labor standards.

And as for manufacturing , it continues apace. The crux of the problem isn't the trade deal but adjusting to the shifting sands of the job market. From the atlantic just two days ago:https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/01/america-is-still-making-things/512282/

"This is a key point often missed in the debate over whether it’s trade or automation that has displaced American jobs. Automation and trade are deeply entwined phenomena; trade increases pressures to automate or export simple jobs, but also incentivizes the U.S. to specialize and create more high-paying jobs.

In some ways, the whole narrative that manufacturing is disappearing is flawed, Hicks says. Manufacturing, like most other industries in America, has modernized and become more sophisticated over the decades. To be sure, it employs millions fewer people than it did in the past. But manufacturing still makes up about 12.5 percent of America’s gross domestic product, the same as it did in 1960. People who can work in modern manufacturing—those with computer skills and advanced degrees—are in demand. The average manufacturing worker now makes $26 an hour, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The catch is that traditional manufacturing workers don’t have those advanced degrees, and can’t get those jobs. “Maybe the problem isn’t so much the industry job losses, but that the men and women in manufacturing had much poorer educational attainment, and had been in less technically dynamic workplaces, Hicks told me. “ So, when the world changed, they could not.”
Half a century ago, almost no manufacturing workers went to college; they graduated from high school and went straight to the factory, where they could find a good job for life. Now, it’s becoming more and more common for manufacturers to hire workers who have some higher education. Nearly 20 percent of the manufacturing workforce had a bachelor’s degree in 2012, up from 16 percent in 2000. Just 10 percent had less than a high-school education, down from 14 percent in 2000. Nearly 9 percent of the manufacturing workforce has a graduate or professional degree."


And most importantly:

"Unskilled jobs in the industry have been disappearing for decades as technology and globalization have made them obsolete. Yet technology is also enabling new types of jobs that provide a career for people who know how to use it. The hard part is what happens to everyone else.


IMHO, the "what happens to everyone else" is where we can start the conversation about a Universal Basic Income.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
65. No I guess you didn't read them.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 11:38 AM
Jan 2017

My links did not "explain the reasons and justifications" for quantitative easing. You clearly didn't read them. At all. I'll give this post the minimal effort you deserve.

1) I posted one link related to currency manipulation, and it explained that quantitative easing, by no stretch of the imagination, could ever be considered currency manipulation. Why? Because the US's actions do not meet the seven part IMF test to determine if currency manipulation has occurred. That is what you would have found had you read the link.

2) I didn't say TPP "violates" our democracy. It undermines it, which means it weakens it, basically blows it out of the water. But no, I never said that voting for it was not allowable under our constitution, which is what violates means. So try to read more carefully. Your quotation, from the CATO institute, by the way, rather than any progressive source, is hilarious in that it too is off point, doesn't even include the terms ISDS, financial services, or food safety, so it doesn't even address my criticisms of the TPP. Let me break it down for you in small words so you can understand before running to another right wing web site for more data in support of the TPP.

ISDS stands for investor-to-state dispute settlement. ISDS is a process that allows foreign investors (and only foreign investors) to enforce their rights under trade agreements themselves, in private arbitration tribunals. Cases are not heard by judges, who would be expert in public international law and skilled at balancing the interests of the many versus the one. They are heard by commercial arbitrators, most of alternate between hearing cases and bringing cases. International arbitration is lucrative, sometimes earning the arbitrators $1000 and hour OR MORE, so the motivation for repeat-player bias that exists in domestic arbitration exists there as well.

What rights can foreign investors vindicate in these courts? Yes, your traditional right to no expropriation without compensation, but also the right against discrimination (which can be proved by even a single legislator making a comment that a particular law would be good for domestic jobs), and the right to compensations for regulatory takings, which is just a fancy word for being compensated for laws and regulations that investors don't like. The Federalist Society, which I am sure you are familiar with given your affinity for Cato, tried to make regulatory takings the law of the land in the US in the 80s and 90s. They could not do so. So ISDS is a back door to get at the international level what they could not at the domestic level.

ISDS allows compensation for acts at every level (local, state, and federal) that a panel determines violates one of the investors rights and diminishes profits of the claimant. Corporations have won cases on the basis of: receiving a logging quote they didn't; not being allowed to expand a quarry toward an environmentally sensitive area; not being given a building permit to build a toxic waste storage facility near a drinking water supply; for terminating an oil drilling contract pursuant to the exact terms of the contract; and on and on.

How does it undermine democracy? 1) It forces societies to compensate private parties for the right to govern. Even when a country passes laws and regulations in a democratic manner, it may be forced to fork over thousands or millions or even billions to a private party. That is a direct loss to democracy. 2) This potential for big pay-offs creates a chilling effect in which lawmakers and regulators are less likely to take an action once a case has been threatened.

Here are some links about the dangers of ISDS, including from your beloved Cato:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrishamby/the-billion-dollar-ultimatum?utm_term=.pn6zjkr7X3#.sseRX7JPmz
https://www.thenation.com/article/right-and-us-trade-law-invalidating-20th-century/
https://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/compromise-advance-trade-agenda-purge-negotiations-investor-state

If you think high tech jobs are the answer, you have not been paying attention to the a) offshoring of high tech jobs and b) use of H-1B visas to drive down wages in the high tech sector and take what used to be good jobs for people with graduate degrees to shit jobs. Just saying "hi tech" is no longer a magic word. Silicon Valley is the very entity driving down wages and inventing apps to undermine safety regulations, unions, and every tool government uses to make like livable.

Here is some more evidence for you:

Debunking the bullshit that the it is automation not trade that kills jobs:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/10/18/dont-blame-the-robots-an-interview-on-manufacturing-automation-and-globalization-with-susan-houseman/
http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906.pdf
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/the-bogus-high-tech-worker-shortage-how-guest-workers-lower-us-wages/
http://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/130/

As to not lowering standards, just try reading the financial services chapter. There are several provisions about kinds of financial services rules we cannot have. Preventing us from making certain kinds of rules to try and stabilize the financial system is lowering our standards. Please try to understand what it is that trade agreements and are supposed to do before you defend them blindly. They are not about tariffs, which is what Cato likes to focus on They are about tying the hands of democratic societies to free corporations to behave however they want. Corporations do not like democracies. They do not like to have to meet standards. They do not like to be prohibited from anything. That is what trade agreements do: put straightjackets on societies to limit the ways they can control businesses. To change this, we must throw out the old trade model and write new rules that put people and the planet first. Here is one way to do that: http://www.aflcio.org/About/Exec-Council/Conventions/2013/Resolutions-and-Amendments/Resolution-12-America-and-the-World-Need-a-New-Approach-to-Trade-and-Globalization

Universal Basic Income is not only a ridiculously bad substitute for good trade policy, doesn't even make sense. Who is voting for this universal basic income, the Republican Congress? And how much do you want to hand out to people instead of letting them earn a decent living, because as of last January, the amount was $11,880 for a single person. I could not even pay my rent with what, much less have food, electricity, a phone, a bus pass, or new gloves for the winter. What a joke.


BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
23. Interesting post
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:35 PM
Jan 2017

And good policies on Germany's part. Sadly, with Trump in office, we have few options.

JHan

(10,173 posts)
30. Yep, no chance of that culture changing with Trump.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:00 AM
Jan 2017

If Larry Kudlow is anything to go by, Trumpians believe that wealth is might and right and the rich can do no wrong.

Nay

(12,051 posts)
83. That's because Germany actually cares about how its citizens fare, since the
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 03:33 PM
Jan 2017

better they do, the better the country does. Here, the owners of this country don't give a shit about how well the country does, only about how well they personally do. Thus, over the past 30 years, we have evolved a society in which the rich are assumed to be so much better than the rest of us that they deserve all the money. If the rest of us were anything but drooling idiots, we'd be rich, too. That's the attitude, anyway.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
81. Yeah but what if we used the tarriffs to create a big gov't jobs program?
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 03:05 PM
Jan 2017

In the areas that have not recovered? Give people something do do cleaning up the old buildings and making the areas look good. Put in some community buildings. Install high speed internet.

TheBlackAdder

(28,194 posts)
15. Progressives embraced globalization as part of the UN Millennial Development Goals (MDG).
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:02 PM
Jan 2017

.


It's premise was to shift trade and jobs to developing nations, in an effort to raise people out of poverty.

The problem is how poverty is defined, in underdeveloped nations extreme poverty is $1.25 a day. What happened was that there was a shift of wealth to the upper classes, while the people making under $1.25 a day saw a nickel or two in income lift raising them to $1.30 or $1.35 a day. This gave the impression that people were being lifted out of extreme poverty to higher poverty level, when really they were hovering just above the extreme poverty levels.

The middle classes in these countries seemed to expand, but really the tier structure widened with most at the bottom rungs of the middle class levels. Those deemed upper class took in the lion's share of wealth while the ranks of the wealthy stayed about the same. There is only a small amount of extremely wealthy in every country.

So, in recap, the US sent a shitload of jobs to other countries in a way to distribute income and raise people in other countries to higher wage levels. It seems noble, but it flies in the face of the politician's primary goals to protect America first. The problem is, that this wealth transfer ended up masking extreme poverty and poverty levels, gave a false impression that the middle class widened as the upper class exploded. The extremely wealthy remained around the same number. These actions did not have the desired effect, but what it did do was to drain jobs from this country.

.

TheBlackAdder

(28,194 posts)
20. You might remember DU OPs and posts last year, supporting sending jobs to countries to lift wages.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:25 PM
Jan 2017

.


I recently took a course in Developing Economies in Emerging Countries and it will scare the shit out of you, if I went over how the US is fucking themselves in the global market, allowing China, India, Indonesia to seize land and asset control in other countries. In a few years, half of Central and South America would have shifted from the US to China as their main trading partner.

The US and EU are facing a collapse in the supply chains that will manifest themselves in the next 10-20 years.

This is why the TPP is a bad idea. We negotiate trade with countries based on the MDG, requiring ecological, employment and financial requirements. This causes burdens in countries that are poor and can not afford such regulations for trade. On top of that, US mainly deals in company orders, which could be cancelled in a few years, whereas China acts as a merchantile nation and locks in contracts for 20-25 years with guaranteed price structures. China also comes in and says, "We don't give a shit how you run your country as long as you send us our goods."

China has secured over 1.5 Million square miles of croplands in South America and Africa, until at least 2050.

China also behaves like a Wal*Mart, moving into a country and selling goods below the US, EU and local suppliers. They take the raw materials from the country, ship them to the homeland, ship back finished products and corner the market. As wages drop, because local stores and manufacturers go out of business, their people become even more dependent on the cheaper goods. Just like how a Wal*Mart acts when moving into a new territory, selling goods below cost to drive locals out of business and then the slow collapse of the economy guarantees business.

Half of the countries no longer trust the USD because of the 2008 collapse and the instability of capitalism, in their eyes. If Trump and the GOP cause more shocks to the USD, the dollar will no longer be the global currency. I could go into how the US Aid and World Bank programs cause countries to become indentured servants to the US, which also causes a further lack of trust.

.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
21. And this is all reflective of the decline of American empire
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:30 PM
Jan 2017

Which is really what US citizens are feeling the results of.

I recognized that China was starting to displace the US in Latin America about 14 years ago because I saw what resembled the period when the US displaced Britain there.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
36. Actually no.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:32 AM
Jan 2017

US imperialism is gross. Shared prosperity can exist without exploitation. But not with corporations in charge of the economic rules.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
25. The hilarious part were all the columns and posts last year
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:43 PM
Jan 2017

about Bernie and the AFL-CIO were being "selfish" in opposing the TPP and trying to keep all the jobs in the US. Now, some of those very same columnists have turned around and are saying that Bernie was right that the TPP would have raised drug prices in other countries and that we should be careful that Trump does not import the TPP IP chapter into his NAFTA renegotiation.

Not only that, but the "holier than thou" argument that says US workers must sacrifice their own jobs and wages through trade agreements to help workers in the developing world seems to ignore the 2-6 million small and subsistence farmers pushed off their land in Mexico by NAFTA and forced to work in maquiladoras for shit wages with no benefits or forced to migrate to the US and live in the shadows. How did NAFTA help them?

It ignores the workers in Bangladesh forced to work in death traps for slave wages because there is not ladder to the middle class in a country in which all jobs are insecure, unsafe, and poorly paid. How does the WTO help them?

And it purposely glosses over the fact that sacrifice should come from the haves, not the have nots. Where were the calls for sacrifice from Wall St, from profitable multi-nationals, from those who live off capital gains? There were none. Not a single one. It was thinly disguised contempt for working people wrapped in the sanctity of fat do-gooderism.

The current economic model, in which the corporations write the rules, is not sustainable. And I am tired of being lectured and called a protectionist by people who don't have the first clue about what's really happening.



TheBlackAdder

(28,194 posts)
26. The TPP would have given China keys to the kingdom. They would be able to undercut TPP partners.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:49 PM
Jan 2017

.


They rejected joining the TPP because remaining out of it would allow them to deal directly with TPP nations, bypassing all of the trade restrictions and ensuring that the majority of nation states would deal with China over a TPP partner.


.

Response to TheBlackAdder (Reply #26)

TheBlackAdder

(28,194 posts)
63. Doesn't surprise me, as they promote globalization and poverty reduction measures.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 09:02 AM
Jan 2017

.

Peer-reviewed university and expert research that are sourced directly from UN reports state otherwise.

.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
18. Automation predates trade deals
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:11 PM
Jan 2017

By some 60 years. It's been a continual process since Fordism and Taylorization were implemented in factories (even in the 18th to 19th centuries with the process of alienation of labor described by Marx). Deindustrialization also predates deals like NAFTA. Chronology does matter. NAFTA may have well accelerated a process already underway, but it did not initiate it.


The fact is that capitalism is based on profit--the accumulation of capital. Its imperative is to find more efficient ways of accumulating more capital. The exploitation of labor is the very heart of the capitalist system, and it depends on inequality. Capitalism determines social relations, mores, and the nature of the state. Inequality and poverty are not incidental but central to the system.

There was a brief period in US history in which the white working class, men in particular, benefited from that system, based largely on the capacity of the US government to enforce labor exploitation in the Global South. The US is now far less able to enforce such economic relationships than at the height of the American empire, which correspond precisely with that period of relative prosperity for the white middle class.

Striking down trade deals won't return America to the prosperity of the 50s; it won't make America great again. They have to be replaced with something. Trump's plan is to tear down regulation and minimum wages so businesses finding moving abroad less attractive. The idea is for the US to become the Global South.

I don't know what Bernie's plan was to replace trade deals. That may be a result of my own ignorance rather than his failing, but I did look several times at his website for details on that and other issues and found very few.

For the record, I was a critic of NAFTA and opposed TPP, largely because TPP replicated chapter 11 of NAFTA, which created an extra-judicial arbitration board that national court systems have no ability to overturn. I did, however, find the discussions against TPP lacking because : 1) they attributed far too much causality to those deals; 2) there was very little discussion of what would replace them. Progressive critics seemed to echo ( other way around actually) Trump's implication that we could resurrect the economy of the 50s and 60s. That is simply not possible. Details matter, and we got few.

-- --
A post above is reflective of the kind of discourse I find frustrating. " Corporate trade" is described as caused by trade deals, as though corporations didn't dominate trade before NAFTA. United Fruit engineered the overthrow of the govt of Guatemala in 1954 (through the CIA Director and Sec of State who were major stockholders) in order to keep the Arbenz govt from expropriating their uncultivated land. yet that was 30 years before NAFTA, at the height of American prosperity. Yet "corporatism," we are told, is far more recent. With little understanding of history and no critique of capital itself, we see presentist claims that don't hold up to scrutiny. They do convey frustration at the current situation, but offer no solutions. Ultimately, if we don't understand cause, solutions are not possible.




OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
31. It's too bad you don't know that corporations did dominate trade when NAFTA was passed.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:09 AM
Jan 2017

Who do think dominated trade? Mom and pop hamburger restaurants mailing each other hamburger buns via parcel post? No, it was corporations, advocating self-interested neoliberal ideology, donating to political campaigns to get their way. They are who backed NAFTA and wrote its rules.

You are aware of the Powell Memo, right? http://billmoyers.com/content/the-powell-memo-a-call-to-arms-for-corporations/

It was a call to arms for corporations and it worked.

Global corporations didn't just happen recently. No one said that. And no one who knows anything believes it. Documentation: https://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/47068-a-brief-history-of-transnational-corporations.html

How do you think ISDS got into NAFTA? Because of the massive popular uprising of working people demanding that corporations be given the right to sue the US over laws they don't like in private tribunals? No.

How do you think the procurement chapter got into NAFTA? Because of the massive popular uprising of working people demanding that Buy American be undermined? No.

Your post actually exhibits a lack of understanding. Working people and leftists have been fighting corporate rules at least since the 1970s, well before the WTO and NAFTA came into existence.

Here is a scholarly article about it from 1994: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19187033.1994.11675388?journalCode=rsor20

Here is one from 2000, with citations going back to the 1980s: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/08969205000260010701

Here is one from 1992: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/225523/summary

You should probably stop insulting people when you don't have your own facts straight. So stop saying corporations did not dominate trade policy at the time of NAFTA. They did. That's why it was written: for their benefit.

As you say: "Ultimately, if we don't understand cause, solutions are not possible."

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
32. Obviously corporations did
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:23 AM
Jan 2017

Nothing I wrote suggested otherwise.

I didn't insult you. I referenced the kind of discourse I find frustrating, as I already explained.

It's clear you don't understand my point at all but are distracted by your assumption that a disagreement on ideas amounts to a personal insult.

Working people and their organizations have been fighting corporations since the late 19th century, at least. That was before the country's left was systematically imprisoned, deported, and purged.

The fact is the entire discourse about globalization and corporatism is recent. People repeatedly refer back to the 50s and 60s as the good ole days. People here insisted they couldn't support a "corporate" Dem like Hillary, despite voting for every Democrat before her, as though those leaders were somehow other than corporate. The primacy of trade deals (NAFTA and TPP) in that entire discourse is narrow. That is not to say one shouldn't oppose them, but to attribute an entire economic trajectory to them is at best exaggerated.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
39. You continue to misunderstand.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:43 AM
Jan 2017

Globalization existed in a major way during the era of Spain and Portugal's imperial domination of the Western Hemisphere. And it didn't produce widespread shared prosperity any more than it does today.

Record levels of trade existed again before World War I, far surpassing global trade in any other known period of history. The people of Europe were even told that there could never be another war because countries who trade together would never fight each other. Boy was that a lie. And this was basically the Gilded Age--there was no widespread sharing in the wealth created.

In the early 2000s, trade again hit a new high. But again, the benefits were not broadly shared.

People oppose the NAFTA and TPP and similar instruments of global neoliberalism because they can lock in--in a way that mere domestic legislation does not--rules that harm the working class and benefit the already economic elite. A domestic law can be undone by the next Congress. However, since WWII, the US has not pulled out of any trade deal or agreed to any amendment that would make a deal more progressive. It is not an exaggeration to say that locking in neoliberalism through international rules is far more problematic than ever before. That is a huge problem that is correctly recognized by the people you so demean. And it has nothing to do with HRC. It has to do with all Dems and their plans to support global neoliberal rules or not. Plenty of people that voted for her also fought the TPP, many of them right here on DU.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
44. I am not demeaning anyone
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:58 AM
Jan 2017

and I actually agree with most of your above post.

It is unfortunate that you find it impossible to disagree with people without taking insult.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
50. I'm not insulted.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 01:25 AM
Jan 2017

I am saying you are insulting the TPP opponents that you assume don't know as much as you do. I'm saying you are insulting them by making assumptions about what they do and do not know about the history of trade, neoliberalism, and corporate power. Just because they disagree with you about the TPP (or Bernie or whatever) does not mean they do or do not know whatever history, economics, and sociology that you do. They might even know more. And it's your assumptions about their lack of knowledge that are insulting.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,853 posts)
38. I lost two jobs at companies that moved to Mexico for cheaper labor.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:42 AM
Jan 2017

They went from a higher-tech plant in the USA to a lower-tech set-up in Mexico.

Lost jobs here definitely can't be blamed entirely on automation.

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
67. You ignore globalization itself -- jobs were moving to cheaper places, in the US and overseas before
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 12:43 PM
Jan 2017

Last edited Sun Jan 8, 2017, 09:38 PM - Edit history (1)

any of the trade deals.

I hated the Democratic party debate, where Bernie Sanders blamed the decline of the rust belt on the trade deals - and HRC did not dispute that claim. I know that this was 100% sincere on his part - but it bothered me that the decline started when many factories were built in the non union south. By 1993, when NAFTA was voted on, many economists and politicians had alreasy observed that the then preceding 2 decades had been very different for two segments of America. The "yuppies", the educated elites were benefiting from large economic gains. Meanwhile, the laborers, clerks, etc were working harder than ever and even as households moved from one breadmaker to two were finding the American dream middle class life increasingly impossible. Referencing a then popular song, one Senator labeled his Senate speech, "What's NAFTA got to do with it.".

Since 1993, even in areas not affected by trade deals, we have seen the international outsourcing of not just manufacturing as in the 1970s and 1980s, but of a significant portion of white collar and professional jobs. (especially customer service and IT) This is legal and will continue as long as corporations look for the savings this undeniably provides.

I liked an oped I read in the Boston Globe by Jeffrey Sachs, who advised Bernie Sanders. He opposes TPP and TIPP, but not because he is against the entire concept of trade deals. His comments of what a trade deal should be are actually not far many of the people in the Obama administration who favor the TPP. https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/10/16/the-truth-about-trade/UWtu8jpAo8LTsTFlffaZ0K/story.html

The reason I like this oped is that I think there is a very difficult economic puzzle of how you can protect workers' rights and ensure that they are given a fair share of the country's wealth in a time where globalization is a reality. About a dozen years ago, I was asked by a very bright high school daughter to explain what the whole WTO issue (there were riots at the time) was and what was the real solution to her. She found it confusing and I had majored in Math and economics. Now explaining what was happening was pretty easy. The second question was the more important and I realized that nothing I learned on international economics in the early 1970s was remotely useful.

It seemed to me that, though it was not publicly heralded, what had happened was that we had entered a new phase in the relationship of employer/worker. If you look over time, you see that there were times where the imbalance of power between workers and employers led to exploitation. The most obvious was that when the great landowners switched between agriculture to grazing animals, it led to the migration of people, essentially evicted from their homes to the city. Almost concurrently, the industrial revolution used this essentially inexhaustible labor pool, which received a very small part of the gains. The correction was the labor union, which when all their trained works united and was willing to refuse to work - changed the balance of power.

Even in the 1950s when I was a kid, this was still the basic situation - while there were gains and losses in labor laws, the labor pool was still basically local. What changed was that the cost differential was big enough that companies moved to build new factories long distances away in first in the non union South and then overseas. In essence what this meant was that where the union, as the aggregate spokesman for all the employees who could not in total be replaced lost power relative to the corporation, which became bigger. In addition, where in the 1950s, the corporations were part of the communities they were based in. Community relations were important to them. Now, in addition to the corporations seeing that their labor pool is really international, they are international corporations, where the people making the decisions may never have set foot in the county reatly affected by their business decisions.

So, what can be done to rebalance that power relationship. How does a country like us insure the basic quality of life for people either working hard at jobs that are paying less or struggling to get jobs at all?

Solutions from the mid 1900s - like increasing tariffs - whether pushed by unions or Trump, are very unlikely to be helpful. They initiate a trade war which is counterproductive. So, how can a labor market establish workers' rights and higher wages, it might be that this is what trade deals should be doing -- or as is suggested, the gain of the winners because of trade deals need to be shared (via taxes) with the losers.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,853 posts)
82. My father rarely worked for corporations back in the 50's. The companies...
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 03:11 PM
Jan 2017

were large family-owned factories. He was treated very well, but maybe he was just lucky?

I think the owners of those companies considered them "their baby," and so they overlooked the operation more closely and tried to keep the employees happy.

Incorporation seems akin to parents paying others to care for their children full-time. The kids aren't likely to get the same level of care, at least most of the time.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
86. Not my intent to ignore it-I see NAFTA and TPP as manifestations of globalization.
Sun Jan 8, 2017, 09:05 PM
Jan 2017

I do appreciate what you've posted there, though.

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