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unblock

(52,219 posts)
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:22 PM Jan 2017

for all the hype about impeachment, it's historically unlikely.

there have been only three significant presidents in impeachment history.

andrew johnson and bill clinton were impeached by the house, though neither was removed by the senate.
and richard nixon, of course, resigned rather than go through that ordeal.

in all three cases, each president faced a congress with both houses controlled by the opposition party.


impeachment is not a judicial act taken on by impartial jurists. it is fundamentally a political act taken on by political animals. and it's a hell of a lot easier to take such a drastic political step against a member of a different party than against the leader of your own party.

impeachment and removal would require active participation by a good number of republicans, who risk alienating a large number of their own voters. this is a tall order for republicans in congress.

yes, it is true that if donnie is impeached, we end up with pence as president. in terms of power, the republicans in congress are probably fine with this, but their voters are not at all likely to see it that way, at least not at this point.


therefore, in order to get republicans in congress to go along with impeachment, there need to be a very significant wedge driven between donnie and republican voters.

it has to be bad enough that republican voters will thanks their congressmen for impeaching donnie. this is not going to be achieved by mere election shenanigans, dirty tricks, or even criminal acts committed in the name of getting a republican elected. that stuff doesn't bother republican voters in the least.

nor do they care about emoluments or talking to russia or misogyny or racism.


what they do care about is the big business and the super-rich. if donnie pisses them off and ceo's start saying we need to dump trump, that'll shift the dialog in a way that could turn republican voters against donnie.

his protectionist bent seems most likely to cause this. if donnie is successful in getting protectionist measure through and other countries retaliate, that could seriously hurt international trade and piss big companies and rich people off bigly.

short of that, it's hard for me to see republican voters turning on him.

problem is, most protectionist measures require congress to pass legislation to enact such things, and it's then hard for republicans who voted for the protectionist measures that caused the problems to then impeach donnie for something they agreed to.


i'm all for impeachment and removal of this scumbag, but frankly, i don't see it happening.

maybe, maybe, we can win bigly in 2018, but i'm not holding my breath. but, if we can get democratic majorities, at least in the house, then impeachment becomes much more likely.

until then, i really don't see it happening.







37 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
for all the hype about impeachment, it's historically unlikely. (Original Post) unblock Jan 2017 OP
Anything is possible in trump's bizarre new world. Jacob Boehme Jan 2017 #1
But Break time Jan 2017 #2
Never more deserving, sure unblock Jan 2017 #9
Vegas odds Lotusflower70 Jan 2017 #26
There has never been a psychopathic president like drumpf. democratisphere Jan 2017 #3
Jackson was arguably crazier unblock Jan 2017 #10
If treasonous activity went on, LOCK HIM UP! JHan Jan 2017 #4
"historically unlikely" like, say, someone losing the popular vote and winning the electoral vote. PoliticAverse Jan 2017 #5
That's happened 5 times now unblock Jan 2017 #11
All the repubs would have to do is give the order to Faux News and conservative talk radio meadowlark5 Jan 2017 #6
If he becomes a liability, sure unblock Jan 2017 #14
No, the elected republicans. If they feel he is becoming too much of a liability meadowlark5 Jan 2017 #20
3 out of 45 is a hell of a lot given as serious a punishment as you can use against a President HoneyBadger Jan 2017 #7
How many have died in office? roamer65 Jan 2017 #13
Zero times by the same party as the president unblock Jan 2017 #16
I suspect that Trump will be impossible to work with marylandblue Jan 2017 #8
As long as he signs tax cuts and such, they'll tolerate him unblock Jan 2017 #18
I read somewhere today justiceischeap Jan 2017 #12
They can investigate and recommend the house take action unblock Jan 2017 #19
Thanks. nt justiceischeap Jan 2017 #34
What's missing here is that this a-hole is totally capable of a-hole ACTS daily. UTUSN Jan 2017 #15
With Republicans in Charge D_Master81 Jan 2017 #17
Yup. I'm not quite in the "live boy or dead girl" camp unblock Jan 2017 #21
I am wondering how long will it be before he goes to Russia bdamomma Jan 2017 #22
Yeah there are many other ways- backdoor Generator Jan 2017 #23
true unblock Jan 2017 #24
Like this HoneyBadger Jan 2017 #25
If the GOP comes to believe that Trump will lose the House or the Senate for them, mn9driver Jan 2017 #27
The history of Western Civilization does not begin or end with the US Presidencies- KittyWampus Jan 2017 #28
we work toward impeachment bigtree Jan 2017 #29
Indeed, don't get me wrong! unblock Jan 2017 #31
easier than you may think KT2000 Jan 2017 #30
Trump got more votes than all of the House republicans combined. onenote Jan 2017 #32
We shall see n/t KT2000 Jan 2017 #36
If he starts costing the Repubs votes charlyvi Jan 2017 #33
I think the Repubs are wisely going to wait and see. forgotmylogin Jan 2017 #35
I'm inclined to agree. Trump has a cult following and Republicans must tread lightly. Garrett78 Jan 2017 #37

Jacob Boehme

(789 posts)
1. Anything is possible in trump's bizarre new world.
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:25 PM
Jan 2017

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
(Hamlet, Act 1 Scene 5)

Break time

(195 posts)
2. But
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:27 PM
Jan 2017

Never before has there been such a great candidate for impeachment....He wil be lucky to last 6 months.

democratisphere

(17,235 posts)
3. There has never been a psychopathic president like drumpf.
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:28 PM
Jan 2017

There will be a breaking point if it hasn't already happened.

meadowlark5

(2,795 posts)
6. All the repubs would have to do is give the order to Faux News and conservative talk radio
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:37 PM
Jan 2017

to tell the walking brain dead that he is dangerous, that his actions could endanger the economy, possibly war, possibly bring on lone wolf attacks by ISIS in the US. Even if none of these are true, all the repubs have to do is get their propaganda machine to tell them he's a danger while building up the honor and integrity of Pence and trump zombies will fall in line.

If he becomes a liability, they will remove him. There is no loyalty or love for him in the repub congress/senate.

unblock

(52,219 posts)
14. If he becomes a liability, sure
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:51 PM
Jan 2017

The question is, how does that happen?
We democrats loathe him, but republican voters have stuck with him so far... so what does him in with them?

meadowlark5

(2,795 posts)
20. No, the elected republicans. If they feel he is becoming too much of a liability
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:57 PM
Jan 2017

His voters will never turn on him. Unless they are told to. They never turned on GWB until Rush Limbaugh and Fox news did and told them to.

 

HoneyBadger

(2,297 posts)
7. 3 out of 45 is a hell of a lot given as serious a punishment as you can use against a President
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:38 PM
Jan 2017

If you do not count to whispers about JFK being punished by the CIA. That is remarkable.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
13. How many have died in office?
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:50 PM
Jan 2017

WH Harrison, Taylor, Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, Harding, FD Roosevelt and Kennedy, right?

I count 8 of 45.

marylandblue

(12,344 posts)
8. I suspect that Trump will be impossible to work with
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:39 PM
Jan 2017

He will order Congress around like they are servants. He will insult and demean Republicans who don't do his bidding. He will screw up and blame them or his cabinet. Congress will pass laws that he immediately violates. He will say one thing and do another. In short, he will perform "misdemeanors" in the original sense of the word, which simply meant misbehaviors. And for that, they might well impeach him.

unblock

(52,219 posts)
18. As long as he signs tax cuts and such, they'll tolerate him
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:54 PM
Jan 2017

They will dump him if he screws them, sure. But I don't see that happening.

He's crazy, but in a power-gathering manipulative way. He's not likely to undermine himself.

justiceischeap

(14,040 posts)
12. I read somewhere today
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:50 PM
Jan 2017

That the Justice Dept. can start impeachment proceedings too.

I also read the majority of his party members want Pence over him so not so unlikely if he commits a heinous act. And how likely is that given who we're talking about?

unblock

(52,219 posts)
19. They can investigate and recommend the house take action
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:56 PM
Jan 2017

But it doesn't mean much until the house takes it up.

D_Master81

(1,822 posts)
17. With Republicans in Charge
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:54 PM
Jan 2017

I dont think it is possible short of pictures emerging of him selling state secrets to Putin while taking a dump on the constitution. Even then...probably a toss up

unblock

(52,219 posts)
21. Yup. I'm not quite in the "live boy or dead girl" camp
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:59 PM
Jan 2017

But I'm close. It will take a lot more than the things that outrage democrats to get republicans to impeach one of their own.

 

Generator

(7,770 posts)
23. Yeah there are many other ways- backdoor
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 11:05 PM
Jan 2017

Leave or we tell them blank or we do blank or the CIA does blank or we take your money or... it doesn't have to be impeachment. It's called resigning and he makes up whatever he wants to say because who cares all he does is lie anyway and he's a sociopath.

Leave or go to jail. I'd bet he'd leave.

unblock

(52,219 posts)
24. true
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 11:10 PM
Jan 2017

there are indeed other ways for powerful people to remove presidents.

still, it seems unlikely.

problem is, there's too much common ground between donnie and congress.
really, other than protectionism, they don't disagree on much in terms of policy.

what congress really worries about is being drawn down with him if he self-destructs.

mn9driver

(4,425 posts)
27. If the GOP comes to believe that Trump will lose the House or the Senate for them,
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 11:42 PM
Jan 2017

they will impeach. They probably have the articles of impeachment sitting in Ryan's desk drawer right now.

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
28. The history of Western Civilization does not begin or end with the US Presidencies-
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 11:45 PM
Jan 2017

I am a history geek.

Heads of state have been disposed of, forced to resign and deposed.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
29. we work toward impeachment
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 11:46 PM
Jan 2017

...we don't just decide it's impossible and deflate.

We shoot for the moon. No matter where we land, it will be miles away from pessimism.

unblock

(52,219 posts)
31. Indeed, don't get me wrong!
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 12:14 AM
Jan 2017

As democrats we have to oppose with full force on all fronts. By all means, we should call for resignation, impeachment, etc.

What we shouldn't do is put all our faith in the statesmanship of congressional republicans.

KT2000

(20,577 posts)
30. easier than you may think
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 12:09 AM
Jan 2017

Koch brothers have given a lot of money to the R legislators. Dump is pursuing their agenda through the Heritage Foundation. Most everything he has already done is courtesy of the brothers. The brothers do not like Dump but Pence is their man.

When they have had enough of Dump they will give the green light (donations and other leverage) to the legislators and it will be on. The R's will then look like they have values by standing up to Dump and it will be Pence.

That is my prediction.

onenote

(42,700 posts)
32. Trump got more votes than all of the House republicans combined.
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 12:18 AM
Jan 2017

They're not turning on him and facing primaries from Trump's supporters.

Thinking he's going to be impeached is the same kind of wishful thinking expressed by some here who asserted that he was going to drop out of the race before the repub convention, or during the convention, or shortly after the convention, or after the first debate, second debate, third debate, before election day, after election day and on and on and on.

Wishful thinking. Not rational thinking.

charlyvi

(6,537 posts)
33. If he starts costing the Repubs votes
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 12:29 AM
Jan 2017

They will impeach him in a New York minute, taking credit for punishing "one of their own". Of course, the fact that he isn't one of their own, that he was a Dem until Obama was elected, that they would much rather have Pence as President, won't occur to the rabid base.

forgotmylogin

(7,528 posts)
35. I think the Repubs are wisely going to wait and see.
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 01:02 AM
Jan 2017

Trump is running so much offensive distraction for them. They thought they were going to shut down the ethics committee, but instead they learned where the electric fence is. They're going to defund a bunch of philanthropical stuff that means a lot to us (NEA, CPB) but isn't a matter of national security.

If Trump goes along, so be it. If he gets out of hand they will immediately "do the right thing" look lawful and valiant by turning on him and impeaching him. After that, they will dust their palms and carry on righteously with Pence who is crazy but one of them, and knows how to politician. Trump is a meat-shield for the Republicans, as much as he thinks he is riding high in charge. All they gotta do is the secret hand signal and he's out and they will make political hay for policing themselves.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
37. I'm inclined to agree. Trump has a cult following and Republicans must tread lightly.
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 01:07 AM
Jan 2017

At this point, though, nothing would surprise me. As someone else said, the likes of Limbaugh can convince Trump supporters that Trump needed to go. But it is a risky proposition.

All I can do is hope something egregious comes out and it causes a huge headache for the Republican Party.

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