a few predictions:

[unblock]

all right, i'm reversing a big one here. i've said for a long time that we're not winning the house until the 2020 census kicks in in 2022 at the earliest. however, i didn't count in donnie.

i predict:

- donnie will not be impeached by a republican house.
- donnie will serve out his term.
- democrats will win the house in 2018 thanks to record turnout for a midterm election.
- donnie will be impeached by the democratic house.
- donnie will not be convicted by the senate (we may have a majority, but we certainly won't have the 2/3rd needed for that).
- donnie will not be re-elected.

[Blanks]

1. I think he will resign...

They are unhappy with the way the press is covering his administration.

They're really not gonna like it when the evidence that his campaign coordinated with the Russians starts surfacing.

Trump, and his inner circle (including Pence) will go down, but Trump won't resign for a couple of months. Then Pence will be hounded about his communication with the Russians until he resigns, whoever Pence picks as VP will be running for reelection in 2020. It'll be a bloody primary for republicans too.

[unblock]

7. he'll never go voluntarily. he has to "win".

he can choose not to run again (notwithstanding that he's already technically filed for this) and declare that he's accomplished all he set out to do and pretend to be a "winner", side-stepping the smoldering ashes on his way out....

but he can't resign and be seen as a "winner".

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8. He filed for bankruptcy 6 times...

He's used to losing.

[unblock]

11. those were wins!

he's the king of debt!

he crammed down that debt bigly!




unfortunately, he gets no cram-down benefit from resignation.

[Blanks]

18. Sure there is...

He accomplished all that he set out to do, in less time than anyone else. He wins.

[unblock]

19. !

[manicraven]

2. Your prediction seems reasonable; however, tRump is so volatile and unpredictable that

it may be the Republican House does impeach him and he's forced out. The die-hard tRump chumps are a minority and moderate Republicans, who do still exist, and the Never Trumpers could reach their limit with him and push their reps to take action against the fool.

[unblock]

10. he's actually not all that unpredictable.

sure, he's unpredictable in the sense of, which issue or comment is going to warrant an executive order or a defensive tweet on any given day.

but he's fairly predictable in the sense that he's going to look for ways to be seen as addressing his campaign themes, he's going to show contempt for process and other governmental institutions and traditions, and he's going to declare that whatever he does is making america great again and critics are fake news and biased enemies.

most republicans in congress may not be big supporters, but they are from very safely republican districts, where their usual biggest political concern is getting primaried from the right. so they're not likely to attack donnie and piss off open the door for a die-hard trump chump to challenge them.

the rest of the republicans will problem figure they can do best by simply distancing themselves from donnie, just as they distanced themselves from shrub.

[manicraven]

3. Plus, as tRump's unpopular numbers grow, the GOP officials are going to become extremely

nervous because they won't want to be pulled down with tRump.

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12. see post #10, most are in safe districts

the rest can quietly distance themselves from him.

impeaching him is way to damaging to themselves and their brand.

[Doreen]

4. Is this all before or after we all get blown to hell?

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13. you may note i avoided making a prediction on this ;)

[Doreen]

15. Uhmm, yup.

[HassleCat]

5. Alt predictions, since we live in alt reality.

We not regain the House because we will field too many candidates who are quislings or worse. Our voters will stay home and we will lose.

Trump will start a war, with cooperation and complicity from members of our party, just like last time. Voters will be afraid not to support the president during a war. Our party will not oppose Trump because we don't want to appear weak or soft on terrorism. The result will be a Trump reelection.

Impeachment will not even be on the table.

Most executive orders will go unchallenged.

Military spending and corporate welfare will add $4 trillion to the debt over the next eight years.

A financial collapse late in Trump's second term will elect a Democrat in 2024, and we will spend another eight years rebuilding from the wreckage.

In other words, a replay of the Bush presidency, almost blow by blow. We will not recognize it as such, due to a corporate media that focus on the distractions instead of the issues. With any luck, I'll be too old and senile to get all upset about it.

[unblock]

14. sadly plausible.

[Greybnk48]

6. What's your prediction on Bannon?

I don't think Trump will be around for four years. UK Parliament is right now holding hearing on whether to ban him from entering the country! I was just watching it. He wont last the year.

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16. administration figures come and go, it doesn't much matter.

bannon will likely continue to be able to manipulate donnie no matter what his role, even if he's no longer part of the formal administration. hell, all it takes is a tweet or a foxnews appearance or a breitbart headline.

or, he'll be replaced with someone equally odious. what does it really matter.

[grantcart]

9. some sort of military action will be initiated against Iran in 6 months

It helps Putin, Netanyahu, Trump

With 40% of the worlds oil going through the Straits of Hormuz it would bring oil back to $ 80 per barrel.

It would also help Saudi Arabia.

Might just be shooting at boats in the water or invading their air space but Trump will be free falling in the polls and needs some kind of military action to try and boost his ratings

Netanyahu wants it to maintain the perception that Israel is the only stable country in the Middle East so Western Standards of governance need not apply.

It will divide NATO and weaken the European/US alliance, a key strategic goal of Putin.

Trump can't wait to actually give orders and pretend that he is a powerful person.

[unblock]

17. military action is my biggest worry with donnie.

i think he'll quickly realize that he's only going to get weak p.r. or worse from anything else except signing laws that ryan and mcturtle put in front of him, but that won't happen nearly often enough for him.

so he'll look to become a "war president" just as shrub did.