2018 US Senate Election rating-if Democrats nominate top tier candidates in every state.

[nkpolitics1212]

AL (Strange-R)Roger Bedford-D
Likely Republican
AZ (Flake-R)Kyrsten Sinema-D
Tossup w/Flake-R,Lean Democratic w/Kelli Ward-R
CA (Feinstein-D)Dianne Feinstein-D and/or Loretta Sanchez-D open primary and runoff
Solid Democratic
CT (Murphy-D)Chris Murphy-D
Solid Democratic
DE (Carper-D)Tom Carper-D or Jack Markell-D
Solid Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)Bill Nelson-D
Likely Democratic
HI (Hirono-D)Mazie Hirono-D
Solid Democratic
IN (Donnelly-D)Joe Donnelly-D
Tossup
ME (King-I)Angus King-I/D
Tossup if Democrats field their own candidate and LePage-R runs.
Likely Independent/Democratic if Democrats do not field their own candidate and LePage-R runs.
MD (Cardin-D)Ben Cardin-D or John Sarbanes-D
Solid Democratic
MA (Warren-D)Elizabeth Warren-D
Solid Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)Debbie Stabenow-D
Solid Democratic
MN (Klobuchar-D)Amy Klobuchar-D
Solid Democratic
MS (Wicker-R)Travis Childers-D
Likely Republican
MO (McCaskill-D)Claire McCaskill-D
Lean Democratic
MT (Tester-D)Jon Tester-D
Lean Democratic
NE (Fischer-R)Brad Ashford-D
Likely Republican
NV (Heller-R)Ross Miller-D or Kate Marshall-D
Tossup
NJ (Menendez-D)Richard Codey-D
Solid Democratic
NM(Heinrich-D)Martin Heinrich-D
Lean Democratic w Susana Martinez-R,Solid Democratic w Steve Pearce-R
NY (Gillibrand-D)Kirsten Gillibrand-D
Solid Democratic
ND(Heitkamp-D)Heidi Heitkamp-D
Tossup
OH (Brown-D)Sherrod Brown-D
Lean Democratic
PA(Casey-D)Bob Casey jr.-D
Likely Democratic
RI (Whitehouse-D)Sheldon Whitehouse-D
Solid Democratic
TN (Corker-R)Andy Berke-D
Solid Republican
TX (Cruz-R)Beto O'Rourke-D
Lean Republican
UT (Hatch-R)Jim Matheson-D
Likely Republican
VT (Sanders-I/D)Bernie Sanders-I/D
Solid Independent/Democratic
VA (Kaine-D)Tim Kaine-D
Lean Democratic w/Gillespie-R,Likely Democratic w/o Gillespie-R
WA (Cantwell-D)Maria Cantwell-D
Solid Democratic
WV(Manchin-D)Joe Manchin-D
Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)Tammy Baldwin-D
Likely Democratic
WY (Barrasso-R)Dave Freudenthal-D
Solid Republican
If there is a Democratic wave, Democrats hold onto IN and ND and pick up AZ and NV and TX

[nycbos]

1. A little too optimistic

AL, MS, NE, UT, are all Solid Republican.


Dems have gotten nowhere near state wide victories in those states this decade.


And Texas as Lean Republican? The Democrats can nominate Jesus Christ and he would not win.

[StevieM]

2. You may be right about Texas today but that could change down the line.

Trump did enormous damage to the Republican brand among Latino voters. HRC did better than Obama in Texas, even though Obama did better nationally than Clinton did.

Latinos are making a greater and greater percentage of the population of Texas with each passing year. So come back in 12-20 years and things could be very different.

I think there is a misconception as to just how well we did with Latino voters in this last election. Check out this article.

http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-92304395/

[Phoenix61]

4. They start grabbing land through eminent domain for the walll

and the repubs will become hugely unpopular. Texans kinda funny about their property.

[GWC58]

7. Really!

I've been hearing about Texas turning purple. Let me know when this happens because it hasn't happened yet, nor do I see it happening in 2018. Six more years of Ted "Damn I can't stand looking at this guy" Cruz!

[nkpolitics1212]

9. Texas is Lean Republican due to O'Rourke-D entering the race and Trump's margin of victory in TX is

narrower than Romney's margin of victory in TX. If O'Rourke runs a strong campaign and avoids any gaffes or mistakes, the race will become a tossup. If Cruz-R makes a gaffe or mistake, Slight Democratic takeover.

[nycbos]

13. We all thought Wendy Davis would make the Governors race competitive

Wasn't the case.

[Dawson Leery]

3. Kaine and King will win re-election.

They are both popular.

Heitkamp is too popular.

[Va Lefty]

5. Hope you are right

but I wouldn't be so sure about Kaine. Everyone thought Warner was a shoe in and he barely won. Kaine has "Hillary baggage"

[Dawson Leery]

6. VA is now a darker shade of blue than PA is.

Democrats are energized as we are the opposition. Dems got lazy in 2014. 36% is horrific for a midterm.

Kaine is +20 in approval and the GOP is looking at two losers, Carly Fiorina and Laura Ingraham.

[Va Lefty]

8. Again, hope you are right

But i didn't realize how many deplorables live amongst us.

[SaschaHM]

10. I hope Sanchez doesn't run in 2018...

Her 2016 run was embarrassing enough.

[nkpolitics1212]

11. Which Democrat do you want to see challenging DiFi in the June jungle primary and

the November runoff?
Replacing DiFi with a more progressive Democrat should be our goal.

[still_one]

12. Stating the obvious, turnout is critical