Orrin Hatch is not likely to be President, in almost any scenario.

[thesquanderer]

There have been numerous posts about Trump, Pence, and Ryan all going down, leaving Hatch (next in the succession line) to be President. The problem with that--even if you think that the top three are all going down--is that they would all have to resign simultaneously.

Let's say they get Ryan before they get to Trump, and he steps down as Speaker. The House can elect a new Speaker, who would immediately become third in line behind the Pres and VP.

Let's say they get to Trump first. Then Pence becomes president. Pence is then in a position to nominate his own VP.

And so forth. Unless Trump, Pence, and Ryan all leave office the same day, there's no path to the automatic elevation of Hatch.

Even if there were indeed indictments, arrests, impeachment votes, whatever on all the same day, one, two, or all three of them could choose to stay in office and fight rather than resign. Unless something actually forces them to all leave office on the same day, there's again no path there for it to fall to Hatch.

[k8conant]

1. They wouldn't need to leave the same day...

just before the replacements were made, which would probably take more than one day

[thesquanderer]

6. What "replacement" scenario? Even "same day" was an overstatement.

AFAIK, if Trump resigns, Pence becomes president immediately. Only if Pence simultaneously resigns (or has already resigned or has otherwise become unavailable to fill the position, and no new VP has been confirmed) would it fall to Ryan. Then only if Ryan simultaneously resigns (or has already resigned, without there being an election in the House for a replacement) would it fall to Hatch.

So, if they get Trump and Pence before Ryan, Ryan becomes President, so Hatch doesn't get there. If OTOH they get to Ryan first (i.e. before they get to Trump and Pence), the House will elect a new Speaker, and that new Speaker would become President if they subsequently got Trump and Pence, so again, Hatch doesn't get there.

For Hatch to get there, it basically has to all happen simultaneously. And even then, it depends on all three, not only being indicted/arrested at the same time, it depends on all three *resigning* at the same time. If any one of them says, no, I'm not resigning, I'm going to stay and fight it, again, it doesn't get to Hatch. Unless maybe that one person who doesn't resign doesn't stay in office long enough to get his own VP approved and long enough for the House to elect a new Speaker.

Other than that, there might be a remote window if it gets to Ryan, and Ryan has already resigned, but the House has not yet elected a new Speaker.

[Stallion]

2. Vice President and Cabinet have to be Confirmed

I remember Gerald Ford and Nelson Rockefeller

[Justice]

8. Both the house and senate must approve by majority vote

Not confirmed just by the Senate as in cabinet position

[Renew Deal]

3. It is unlikely, but some people might prefer it

Meaning that people might prefer old man Hatch rather than a random house member. Hatch is 83 and would probably not run for re-election. He's also not offensive to most congress people.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

4. I don't think there will be a Trump-Pence two-fer, or a Trump-Pence-Ryan trifecta.

By the time this scandal is done with Trump he's going to be so poisonous the Republicans will gladly feed Trump to the wolves.

They'll fight to keep Pence and Ryan, though. Establishment types.

And as the OP noted, Ryan isn't subject to impeachment so there's be an entirely different mechanism to remove him anyways.

I think it will be Trump and Trump alone.

But it's okay, because Pence and all of the Republicans are still going to have the toxic stink of Donald Trump all over them long after he's gone. So it should pay dividends in 2018 and 2020.

[thesquanderer]

7. Correct, Ryan can't be impeached.

He can be indicted or arrested, but since our criminal justice system considers him innocent until proven guilty, he can certainly continue to hold his job while battling the charges. I don't think he'd resign unless it's part of a plea deal.

[Thomas Hurt]

5. At this point there is not enough evidence AFAIK to even get rid FF45.

We may all know that FF45 is guilty, but then again, the Trump leg humpers know Clinton is guilty of murder, sexual assault, basically everything.

All wishful thinking and hopes.....me included. I hope they find that Trump is a money laundering, bought and paid for stooge of the Russian Federation.

And they find that Pence was grossly negligent and incompetent, maybe even aided and abetted in covering up.

All speculation and wishful thinking.

The GoP caucus is going to have to be in fear of losing their seats. Don't think that we are anywhere near that with but a few of the more centrist GOP members.