PPP: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Franken, Booker and Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson all would beat Trump

[andym]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_51617.pdf
"Looking Toward 2020:
It's very early, but Trump trails by wide margins in hypothetical match ups for reelection. He does particularly poorly against Joe Biden (54/40 deficit) and Bernie Sanders (52/39 deficit.) There's significant defection from people who voted for Trump in November in each of those match ups- 15% of Trump voters say they'd choose Sanders over him and 14% say they'd choose Biden over him. Trump also trails Elizabeth Warren (49/39), Al Franken (46/38), and Cory Booker (46/39).

We also looked at Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson's prospects if he were to run for President as a Democrat. 36% of voters see Johnson favorably to 13% with a negative view of him, although 50% of voters have no opinion about him either way. Both Democrats (38/15) and Republicans (31/17) see him positively. Johnson would lead Trump 42/37 in a prospective contest, and wins over 15% of people who supported Trump last fall.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 692 registered voters between May 12th and 14th. The margin of error is +/-3.7%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel."

[andym]

1. Both Joe and Bernie would recover about 15% of Trump voters!

Which would mean a landslide.

[andym]

2. FYI, Dwayne Johnson is reportedly a Republican

wrestler/actor who has talked of primarying Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/arts/television/dwayne-johnson-the-rock-president.html
Dwayne Johnson Sounds Pretty Serious About Running for President

[NCTraveler]

3. In other words, we are simply ready for someone else. nt.

[andym]

5. Yes, but Biden, Sanders, and Warren are in landslide territory at the moment

3 weeks ago on April 24, Trump was actually leading Hillary Clinton by 43-40 in a do-over, so things are improving.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html

[NCTraveler]

6. So Clinton beat him by millions and I'm now suppose to believe she would lose.

Not sure how it is even relevant. Still funny.

[andym]

9. The relevance is that this poll means Trump is in real decline

Hillary would probably beat him now in the popular vote and electoral college (where it counts). The April 24 poll was the last one asking questions about Trump's electability. That such a hypothetical poll was even close, was not particularly good news.

[NCTraveler]

13. "was not particularly good news."

It's not news at all. It's not connectable either.

[andym]

14. Of course it's "news"-- to the extent any polling data is news

Clinton doing worse in the April 24 poll, meant that Trump was at least holding his own in terms of electability at that point; unless you believe Clinton is not as strong candidate as the entire group of candidates in the new poll: I think she remains a strong candidate-- she did win by 2% of the popular vote-- why would that evaporate? I do think it would have been useful to include Clinton in the new poll to make a more direct comparison.

[oberliner]

4. Popular vote is irrelevant

HRC beat him by millions.

[andym]

7. Popular vote IS relevant when the margin exceeds 5% (really about 4%)

At that level, the electoral college will follow without doubt. This is based on history and election simulations from 2016. Hillary only achieved 2%. The electoral college is not guaranteed at that level of popular support.

[oberliner]

8. Not if those votes are concentrated in NY, LA, DC, Chicago, etc

Winning California or New York by another million or two does not make a difference.

[andym]

10. Each percentage point is 1.5 million votes

So winning by 10% is winning 15 million votes net over the entire country. That could never happen just with the bluest states.

[oberliner]

11. I'd be curious to see swing state totals

Rather than a national number.

[andym]

12. Agree that the swing state breakdown would be very telling

Doesn't seem to be available.