The Ghost of Climate-Change Future

[babylonsister]

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/the-ghost-of-climate-change-future/528471/


The Ghost of Climate-Change Future

As record-breaking high tides overwhelm Hawaii, people are getting a preview of what life will be like in the decades to come.


A historically high tide washes up over Queens Beach in Waikiki over Memorial Day Weekend.

Adrienne LaFrance 10:47 AM ET Science



The water is everywhere.

For the second time in a month, Hawaii’s coastlines have been swamped by epic tides. The phenomenon, known as a king tide, is actually a convergence of a few different factors: high lunar tides, rising sea levels associated with last year’s strong El Niño and climate change, swirling pockets of ocean eddies, and a robust south swell—that is, big waves rolling onto south-facing shores.

King tides happen routinely in the Hawaiian Islands—a few times a year, usually—but this year’s batch have been particularly extreme. Data from federal tide stations around Hawaii show that water levels have been up to six inches above predicted tidal heights since early last year. In April, levels peaked at more than nine inches above predicted tides and broke the record high for any water level around Hawaii since 1905. Scientists say the record is likely to be broken again in 2017.

Several Honolulu roadways have been submerged. Beaches have been washed out. Beachfront hotels have canceled shorefront entertainment and readied generators. Property owners living near the coasts were told to move electronics and other valuables up to the second floor of their houses and park their cars elsewhere. People photographed fish swimming down the streets. And all around the islands, small mountains of sand have been deposited in parking lots and other strange places—spots the waves should never reach.

For the people of Hawaii, alarm bells are ringing. King tides like this aren’t just a historic anomaly; they’re a sign of what’s to come. “Within a few decades this will be the new normal,” said Chip Fletcher, associate dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology at the University of Hawaiʻi, in a university statement. “Hawaii should consider this a practice run, and reevaluate policies and development practices accordingly.”

“It’s a risk big enough to get the attention of officials who usually watch things like hurricanes and tsunamis,” said the local TV reporter Gina Mangieri, who reported for KHON that emergency-management officials had called for “all-hands-on-deck coordination” across state, county, and federal agencies to protect critical infrastructure and the public.

Scientists believe Hawaii could experience a sea-level increase of three feet by the year 2100, which is in line with global predictions of sea-level change and which would substantially reshape life on the Islands. That’s part of why scientists are enlisting volunteers to help photograph and describe incremental high tides across Hawaii.

more...

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/the-ghost-of-climate-change-future/528471/

[CrispyQ]

1. "Scientists believe Hawaii could experience a sea-level increase of three feet by the year 2100..."

Great series of photos.

[Wounded Bear]

2. Water expands as it warms...

Hawaii, being in the heart of the biggest pond on Planet Earth is bound to feel it. Sure, the islands won't be submersed anytime soon, but like So Fla, there are a lot of people and high end real estate very close to the water line.

Best of luck!

[CrispyQ]

3. I read that some So Fla republicans are actually starting to take climate change seriously.

One of my rwnj cousins has finally conceded that climate change is happening, but still disagrees that it's caused by human activity.

[Wounded Bear]

4. Aren't they getting streets flooded with salt water several times a year now?

Some of the reports have been kind of scary.

Sounds like high tides are getting higher and higher.

[CrispyQ]

6. A good article - a little long, but good.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170403-miamis-fight-against-sea-level-rise

snip...

The flooding would be a challenge for any community, but it poses particular risks here. One recent report estimated that Miami has the most to lose in terms of financial assets of any coastal city in the world, just above Guangzhou, China and New York City. This 120-mile (193km) corridor running up the coast from Homestead to Jupiter – taking in major cities like Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach – is the eighth most populous metropolitan area in the US. It’s also booming. In 2015, the US Census Bureau found that the population of all three counties here was growing – along with the rest of Florida – at around 8%, roughly twice the pace of the US average. Recent studies have shown that Florida has more residents at risk from climate change than any other US state.

snip...

Another issue is beach erosion. Florida’s sand may be one of its biggest draws for tourist dollars, but it, too, is vulnerable: though sand never stays put, rising sea levels and worsening storms mean the need to replenish is intensifying. A massive town-by-town project is currently underway; Miami Beach (which, famously, was manmade from the start) just wrapped up its 3,000ft (914m) section, to the tune of $11.9 million.

Of course, another part of the problem is that south Florida is built on a swamp. “The only reason we live here is we learned how to drain it, we learned how to kill mosquitos, and we created air conditioning,” says Jim Murley, chief resilience officer for Miami-Dade County. Residents cut canals to drain inland areas, using the fill to raise the land and build properties. These canals are now open doors for tidal flooding and storm surge. They also cut down mangrove forests and levelled sand dunes – both natural barriers to flooding.

“There is going to need to be a very serious conversation about how we deal with this,” says George Vallejo, the mayor of North Miami Beach. “The development that has happened here over the last 40 or 50 years has not been helpful to this situation. We’ve paved over a lot of the Everglades, we’ve paved over a lot of greenage.

“We’ve done a lot of things that, in retrospect, we would have done differently, knowing what we know now.”

[Nay]

9. "there's going to need to be a . . . conversation" well, hell, mayor, way past time

for talking. I was in Miami 6 months ago and lo and behold, they were still building shit like there's no tomorrow!! As long as there is money to be made and government is hobbled by the rich, Miami will continue to drown until it's waaaaay too late to do anything but pull up stakes and drive away.

[CrispyQ]

11. Yeah, money in politics will be the undoing of our republic,

& love of money, the destruction of our ecosystem.

[Quemado]

5. Could Trump's backing out of the Paris agreement trigger a backlash?

I don't have enough posts to start this as a topic, but....

Trump is reportedly weighing a decision on whether to pull the U.S. out of the Paris agreement. Given the reaction of various foreign leaders over the past two weeks, and in particular, Angela Merkel, could there be some kind of backlash to Trump if he were to pull the U.S. out of the Paris agreement?

My thought is: yes. I think as a minimum, the U.S. role as leader of the free world would be seriously questioned by our allies.

[Calculating]

7. Trump wouldn't care

In his opinion, the rest of the free world are doing things wrong and they all take advantage of America.

[Wounded Bear]

8. By electing Trump, we've pretty much abdicated our position as leader...

of the free world. Merkel has more meaningful international clout than Trump will ever have, especially as Trump continues to suck up to and cover for Putin.

[TeamPooka]

10. Yup. We're a nation of Russian dupes now. Russia's foreign policy is the USA's policy now.