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UK DUers what are the latest polls saying? n/t (Original Post)
malaise
Jun 2017
OP
herding cats
(19,564 posts)1. I saw earlier May stands to gain about 30 seats and
Labour to lose around 20.
We shall see though.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)2. They are unfortunately predicting a Tory win.
Link to tweet
Link to tweet
Link to tweet
But if young people turn out in the marginal we might have a tight race.
malaise
(269,004 posts)3. Time for a coalition to get them out
Thanks
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)4. Well if they could gain 25 seats than a coalition is possible.
It depends if they can get the Tories below 310.
against the odds
TheBlackAdder
(28,201 posts)6. My daughter's volunteering for Labour today. Waiting for an update.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,318 posts)7. Wikipedia's a good place to see the end results of them all
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
You can sort by poll name too, to see the trend in each. Different pollsters have used different ways to estimate the likelihood of voting, especially youth, and that's been responsible for a lot of the differences between them.
For seat estimates, I know of 2:
YouGov, a pollster https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - estimating Con 302, Lab 269, SNP 44, Lib Dem 12, Plaid Cymru 2, Green 1, 'Other' 2 (and Northern Ireland 18 - completely different parties, so done separately, though the SDLP would often vote with Labour). That 'Other' consists of the Speaker of the Commons - traditionally unopposed by major parties, and a weird result for East Devon of a win for an independent county councillor their model comes up with (which, last I looked, wasn't expected in the local press at all - which may show the YouGov model has significant flaws). Model explained here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/two-methods-one-commitment-yougovs-polling-and-mod/
And http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html - Con 361, Lab 216, SNP 48, Lib Dem 3 ... . That model is explained here: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak . That pair think the Tories are doing better in the marginals, hence the far larger lead they give them. But you can see there's a lot of disagreement.
You can sort by poll name too, to see the trend in each. Different pollsters have used different ways to estimate the likelihood of voting, especially youth, and that's been responsible for a lot of the differences between them.
For seat estimates, I know of 2:
YouGov, a pollster https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - estimating Con 302, Lab 269, SNP 44, Lib Dem 12, Plaid Cymru 2, Green 1, 'Other' 2 (and Northern Ireland 18 - completely different parties, so done separately, though the SDLP would often vote with Labour). That 'Other' consists of the Speaker of the Commons - traditionally unopposed by major parties, and a weird result for East Devon of a win for an independent county councillor their model comes up with (which, last I looked, wasn't expected in the local press at all - which may show the YouGov model has significant flaws). Model explained here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/two-methods-one-commitment-yougovs-polling-and-mod/
And http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html - Con 361, Lab 216, SNP 48, Lib Dem 3 ... . That model is explained here: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak . That pair think the Tories are doing better in the marginals, hence the far larger lead they give them. But you can see there's a lot of disagreement.
malaise
(269,004 posts)8. Thanks
Very helpful