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UK DUers what are the latest polls saying? n/t (Original Post) malaise Jun 2017 OP
I saw earlier May stands to gain about 30 seats and herding cats Jun 2017 #1
They are unfortunately predicting a Tory win. hrmjustin Jun 2017 #2
Time for a coalition to get them out malaise Jun 2017 #3
Well if they could gain 25 seats than a coalition is possible. hrmjustin Jun 2017 #4
Hoping malaise Jun 2017 #5
My daughter's volunteering for Labour today. Waiting for an update. TheBlackAdder Jun 2017 #6
Wikipedia's a good place to see the end results of them all muriel_volestrangler Jun 2017 #7
Thanks malaise Jun 2017 #8
 

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)
4. Well if they could gain 25 seats than a coalition is possible.
Wed Jun 7, 2017, 05:54 PM
Jun 2017

It depends if they can get the Tories below 310.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,318 posts)
7. Wikipedia's a good place to see the end results of them all
Wed Jun 7, 2017, 06:58 PM
Jun 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

You can sort by poll name too, to see the trend in each. Different pollsters have used different ways to estimate the likelihood of voting, especially youth, and that's been responsible for a lot of the differences between them.

For seat estimates, I know of 2:

YouGov, a pollster https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - estimating Con 302, Lab 269, SNP 44, Lib Dem 12, Plaid Cymru 2, Green 1, 'Other' 2 (and Northern Ireland 18 - completely different parties, so done separately, though the SDLP would often vote with Labour). That 'Other' consists of the Speaker of the Commons - traditionally unopposed by major parties, and a weird result for East Devon of a win for an independent county councillor their model comes up with (which, last I looked, wasn't expected in the local press at all - which may show the YouGov model has significant flaws). Model explained here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/two-methods-one-commitment-yougovs-polling-and-mod/

And http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html - Con 361, Lab 216, SNP 48, Lib Dem 3 ... . That model is explained here: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak . That pair think the Tories are doing better in the marginals, hence the far larger lead they give them. But you can see there's a lot of disagreement.
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