Jennifer Rubin: If Virginia is a preview, the GOPs in big trouble in the GA-6 and 2018 races
Some good news to wake up to today for Democrats
If Virginia is a preview, the GOP’s in big trouble in the GA-6 and 2018 races
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/06/14/if-virginia-is-a-preview-the-gops-in-big-trouble-in-the-ga-6-and-2018-races/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.21156cb2cca2
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/06/14/if-virginia-is-a-preview-the-gops-in-big-trouble-in-the-ga-6-and-2018-races/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.21156cb2cca2
By Jennifer Rubin June 14 at 8:45 AM
Ed Gillespie in 2012 on “Face the Nation.” (CBS)
The Virginia gubernatorial primary on Tuesday delivered good news for Democrats and an ominous warning for the Trump-ized GOP. Democratic turnout was through the roof with more than 543,000 votes. GOP turnout was about 366,000. The more establishment Democrat, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, won by a much bigger margin (56 percent to 44 percent) than expected. Republican Ed Gillespie, who had led by double digits in polling, won by slightly more than 1 percent. (A margin of less than one percent would have triggered an automatic recount.) Gillespie’s opponent Corey Stewart, a demagogue on immigration who made an issue over taking down Confederate monuments, vastly over-performed in his primary, just as President Trump did in the 2016 campaign season. Gillespie, who vastly outspent his opponents, wound up with about 160,000 votes, almost 80,000 votes fewer than the loser in the Democratic primary.
It may be that in the age of Trump, the Republican Party risks shriveling or splintering outside deep-red strongholds. Moderate Republicans in Tuesday’s primary might well have crossed over (allowed in a state with no registration by party) to vote in the Democratic primary for Northam, thereby boosting his margin and gravely damaging Gillespie. If this becomes a pattern outside Virginia, the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2018 and beyond.
Rick Wilson, a GOP operative and high-profile #NeverTrumper, noted that Gillespie made a hard-right turn on immigration and even on Confederate monuments at the end. “Ed chased Trumpism, and Stewart was the real deal to Trumpers,” Wilson explained. “By doing that, even if Ed survives the vote (and possible recount) he’s going to have trouble winning in Northern Virginia now.” The latter has become the barrier to the GOP in Virginia statewide races. If it cannot make inroads into populous suburban counties with more moderates and college-educated voters, statewide races become unwinnable for Republicans. Wilson wisecracked that “‘the precious Confederacy!’ isn’t a winning message.”
Gillespie barely scraped by, but in sprinting to his right to beat Stewart, he risks doing much worse in Northern Virginia counties than he did in his surprisingly strong 2014 Senate race against Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). The loss of a chunk of voters in bigger population centers likely won’t be made up by downstate voters who picked Stewart in the primary, not believing that Gillespie was Trumpian enough......................
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