Trump is toxically unpopular. He still might win in 2020.

[CousinIT]

President Trump is historically unpopular. His overall approval ratings languish at around 37 percent, and his specific actions often poll even lower. (On the eve of the Joe Arpaio pardon, just 21 percent of Arizonans favored such a move.)

As Trump moves ever-further into the toxic swamps of the far-right, his numbers keep sinking. If this keeps up, Trump will end up having to bow out of the 2020 race or face the prospect of losing to any halfway competent Democrat in a landslide ... right?

There's just one problem with this analysis: It fails to take into account the new reality of American politics — and in particular the extent to which the combination of polarization and negative partisanship has begun to change the rules of the political game in a way that could decisively benefit President Trump in the only poll that matters: the one held on Election Day 2020. President Trump may well lose that contest. He could decide not to run. He could resign before then. He could be impeached and removed from office. But he might also survive, stick around, run, and win another term in 2020 — even with historically low approval numbers.

Here's how it could happen.

For the sake of this thought experiment, let's bracket outlier events. Let's assume that Robert Mueller's investigation digs up lots of dirt, and several members of the 2016 Trump campaign end up indicted, but that there is no recommendation of felony charges for the president himself. Likewise, let's forecast that the midterm elections of 2018 lead to Republican losses in the House of Representatives but that the GOP remains in the majority, protecting the president from impeachment. Let's also assume there is no massive terrorist attack or major war that Trump can use to rally substantial mainstream support to his side. . . .

http://theweek.com/articles/721436/trump-toxically-unpopular-still-might-win-2020

[ck4829]

1. "Only poll that matters", maybe that poll is a failed system

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Not Buying It

The "only poll that matters" is nonsense. The polls that were wrong weren't about someone that now 2/3rds of the country has seen to be a charlatan and a buffoon. During the election, HRC had the high unfavorables (unfairly so), but there is no ducking that the unfavorables for this idiot are rooted in fact.

So, comparing the pre-election polls to the outcome to this situation is comparing baseball bats to supernovas.

[Achilleaze]

3. But the russians just love republican Comrade Casino*

* republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

[Maeve]

6. Actually, they seem to be falling out of love

Or they wouldn't say " He's too weak to stand up to Congress on sanctions" and "Hell, yes, he tried to build a Moscow tRump tower while claiming no business ties here". The useful idiot has just about served all the purpose they want from him.

[Girard442]

4. Do a little reductio ad absurdum

What if, on the eve of a presidential election, states under Republican control simply closed all polling places in areas that have traditionally voted Democratic?

Think they wouldn't do it?

[Oneironaut]

5. I don't believe the polls. Also, with a combination of Democrats not voting,

and people who hate Trump voting for him anyways for some reason, Trump still has a high chance of winning. Never let your guard down.

[NewJeffCT]

10. Yes

Republicans seem to have a greater capacity than Democrats to hold their noses and vote for the person with the (R) after their name. I heard a lot of Republicans says that with W and even more with Trump.

What it is, Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and others scare the Republicans into still voting for the Republican - they say that Gore, Kerry, Obama or Clinton is going to take away their guns, open up abortion factories in every town, force every child to gay marry and police what they eat and drink (removing soft drinks from schools, Bloomberg not allowing extra large drink sizes, etc)

[KitSileya]

7. Are there any DUers who doesn't think he'll start a war or let a terrorist attack happen in 2019

if he decides to go for another term? I mean, seriously, who can doubt he'll be so vile?

[FSogol]

8. Stop worrying about 2020. The Democrats will dismantle the GOP in 2018. n/t

[FLPanhandle]

9. I'll not underestimate him again

He will win until the Democrats become the party of American Jobs. People vote for jobs and security. Statues and everything else is just noise until the election.