Democratic Wave Begins Forming Off Political Coast
According to the national polls, the generic congressional ballot test points to a wave as well. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman estimates that Democrats need to win the House popular vote, which is what the generic ballot test tries to replicate, by at least 7 or 8 points to win 218 districts, the barest of majorities. The RealClearPolitics average is a Democratic advantage of 10.7 points; the last eight RCP averages have shown the Democratic lead ranging from 7 to 15 points.
The off-year election results also point to a wave. It was a foregone conclusion that Democrats would pick up the governorship of New Jersey, but state legislative gains in Virginia, Georgia, Washington, and elsewhere are ominous for Republicans. Tim Storey, the elections guru at the National Conference of State Legislatures, says that about 33 state legislative seats have shifted from Republican to Democrat this year, while just two have gone from Democrat to Republican, and a couple of seats could go either way. In special congressional elections, in strongly GOP districts in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, Republicans have come out on top, but voting patterns showed them underperforming the norm by 6 to 12 points. These results do not bode well for the 23 GOP-held districts won last year by Hillary Clinton or for those that Trump won narrowly.
Could the Republican majorities in the U.S. House and Senate become magically more legislatively productive in the coming year? Sure, but it’s unlikely. A repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act hasn’t and isn’t likely to happen, even with the latest Senate bid to include a repeal of mandated individual coverage in its tax bill. A major infrastructure program and a border wall are equally dubious propositions.
Yes, the House passed a tax bill on Thursday, but I have been skeptical from the start and remain skeptical that any major tax reform or big tax cut will be enacted into law. Major tax reform occurs only when it has strong bipartisan support, as the 1986 tax-reform package did, or if a party has big majorities and can muscle it through. Neither is the case today.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/democratic-wave-begins-forming-political-coast
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