Is Moore Losing? (538)
By Harry Enten
... Let’s take a look at the three pollsters — Change Research, Gravis Marketing and Strategy Research — that conducted at least two surveys after the allegations. Change Research’s first post-allegations poll, conducted Nov. 9-11, had Moore at +4 points. As we noted above, its Nov. 15-16 survey had Jones at +3. Gravis Marketing showed an identical 7-point shift toward Jones, going from Moore +2 on Nov. 10 to Jones +5 in its Nov. 14-15 poll. Strategy Research, meanwhile, went from Moore +6 in its poll ending on Nov. 13 to Moore +2 in its poll ending on Nov. 21 ...
... After the initial stories about Moore, accusations from more women have come out concerning sexual misconduct. Those, in theory, could have caused additional voters — still on the fence after the first set of allegations — to move against Moore. It’s also probable that it took some voters a few days to hear about and process the first wave of allegations. There is precedent for this type of extended reaction. As I have previously pointed out, it took time for polls to fully manifest how much former Rep. Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” statement hurt his standing in the 2012 Missouri Senate race.
... Jones may actually have an advantage. An average of Alabama polls conducted over the past week, for instance, gives Jones a 47 percent to 43.5 percent lead.
Either way, there’s still three weeks to go until election day. It’s possible that the trajectory of the race could change by then ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-roy-moore-losing/
= new reply since forum marked as read
