Payroll employment rises by 280,000 in May; unemployment rate essentially unchanged (5.5%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Fri Jun 5, 2015, 01:43 PM - Edit history (2)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic News Release USDL-15-1057

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, June 5, 2015

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: [phone] • [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MAY 2015

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline.

Household Survey Data

In May, both the unemployment rate (5.5 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (8.7 million) were essentially unchanged. Both measures have shown little movement since February. (See table A-1.)
....

In May, the civilian labor force rose by 397,000, and the labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.9 percent. Since April 2014, the participation rate has remained within a narrow range of 62.7 percent to 62.9 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 59.4 percent, was essentially unchanged in May. (See table A-1.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

....
In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $24.96. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 6 cents to $20.97 in May. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +85,000 to +119,000, and the change for April was revised from +223,000 to +221,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 32,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 207,000 per month.
....

_____________
The Employment Situation for June is scheduled to be released on Thursday, July 2, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.


[center]Dedication[/center]

No words can express my gratitude and respect:




There's a second dedication this month. Look who's turning 800:



On the dotted line: King John signing Magna Carta at Runnymeade 15 June 1215. Photograph: Universal History Archive/Un/REX


[center]Introduction[/center]

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our good friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so I am absolutely delighted to have you participate in this thread. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

It is easy to find one paragraph, or one sentence, or one datum in this report that will support the most outlandish of conclusions, from "the sky is falling" to "we'll have blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on." Easy, but disingenuous.

Every month, you can find something in the report that will cause you concern. One such nugget is the "labor force participation rate." Take the information in context. Consider not just this month’s data, but the trend.

Please take the time to look at progree's not-to-be-missed thread containing his thoughtful analysis, updated monthly. Here is the latest version:

Economy facts with links to official sources, rev 6/5/15.

Thank you so much for that, progree.

Let's begin with a couple of questions. Who is this Bureau of Labor Statistics, and why are they releasing all these numbers every month?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS is a governmental statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the Department of Labor, and conducts research into how much families need to earn to be able to enjoy a decent standard of living.

The BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, and impartiality in both subject matter and presentation. To avoid the appearance of partiality, the dates of major data releases are scheduled more than a year in advance, in coordination with the Office of Management and Budget.

Note carefully those words: "accuracy," "quality," and "impartiality."

Full disclosure: I do not work for BLS, nor am I friends with anyone over there. My sole connection with the agency is that I've been in the building to pick up some publications. I'm just someone who appreciates the work they do.


[center]Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey[/center]

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[center]The Wall Street Journal. MoneyBeat Blog[/center]

May Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know

8:02 am ET
Jun 5, 2015
Markets


—Associated Press

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. Jobs Friday, when for one ever-so-brief moment, the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: jobs.

The economy shrank in the first quarter and job growth slowed sharply. But strong job creation in April has spurred hopes for a spring economic rebound. Will the May jobs report, due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, confirm those hopes, or dash them? Economists forecast a gain of 225,000 jobs in May, a slight increase from April’s 223,000 gain, and think the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.4%.

Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we’ll crunch the numbers and compile the commentary before and after the data crosses the wires.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

You forgot to say "Enjoy the show." Also, "And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter."

Before we do anything else, let's give credit to the workers behind the MoneyBeat blog:

The MoneyBeat Team:

Stephen Grocer
Editor

Phillipa Leighton-Jones
European Editor

Erik Holm
Deputy Editor

Maureen Farrell
Reporter, New York

Paul Vigna
Reporter, New York
David Cottle
Reporter, London

MoneyBeat Columnists

Ronald Barusch
Dealpolitik

Francesco Guerrera
Current Account

Alen Mattich
Alen Mattich

Jason Zweig
The Intelligent Investor

Michael J. Casey
Horizons

E. S. Browning


[center]The Large Print Giveth, and the Fine Print Taketh Away.[/center]

Long ago, a DU'er pointed out that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here is that link:

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Also, hat tip, Recursion: How the Government Measures Unemployment


[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 201,000 Jobs in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 223,000 in April; jobless rate essentially unchanged (5.4%)

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 169,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2015:

Payroll employment increases by 126,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.5%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 189,000 Jobs in March

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2015:

Payroll employment increases in February (+295,000); unemployment rate edges down to 5.5%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 212,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2015:

Payroll employment rises in January (+257,000); unemployment rate changes little (5.7%)

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 213,000 Jobs in January


[center]Nattering Nabobs of Negativism[/center]

Here’s a grim thought:

Fed economists: America’s missing workers are not coming back

Let’s follow that with another grim thought:

Why wage growth disparity tells the story of America's half-formed economic recovery

By Chico Harlan November 21, 2014
@chicoharlan
[e-mail]

WILMINGTON, Del. — Thomas Gray says he was fortunate coming out of the recession: He took a job in one of the nation’s fastest-growing industries, food services, preparing meals for 500 students in a Head Start cafeteria.

But after two years of work, his salary had not budged, so his mother came out of retirement and took a job at United Way. Four more years have passed, and Gray is skipping bills to manage his expenses. During that time, his salary has risen 58 cents, to $11.70 per hour. But after taking into account the rising price of goods and services — inflation — he has taken a 6 percent pay cut.
....

With unemployment down to 5.8 percent, the country’s half-formed recovery is often described with a convenient shorthand: We have jobs but little wage growth. But stagnancy is just an average, and for many Americans, the years since the financial crisis have pushed them farther from the line, according to a detailed analysis of government labor statistics by The Washington Post.
....

Among the winners in this climate: Older workers, women and those with finance and technology jobs. ... Among the losers: Part-timers, the young, men, and those in the health, retail and food industries.
....

Chico Harlan covers personal economics as part of The Post's financial team.
@chicoharlan
[e-mail]

Dissenters, take note:

A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate

David Leonhardt
AUG. 26, 2014

The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report has been the subject of some wacky conspiracy theories. None was wackier than the suggestion from Jack Welch, the former General Electric chief executive, that government statisticians were exaggerating job growth during President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Both Republican and Democratic economists dismissed those charges as silly.

But to call the people who compile the jobs report honest, nonpartisan civil servants is not to say that the jobs report is perfect. The report tries to estimate employment in a big country – and to do so quickly, to give policy makers, business executives and everyone else a sense of how the economy is performing. It’s a tough task.

And it has become tougher, because Americans are less willing to respond to surveys than they used to be.

A new academic paper suggests that the unemployment rate appears to have become less accurate over the last two decades, in part because of this rise in nonresponse. In particular, there seems to have been an increase in the number of people who once would have qualified as officially unemployed and today are considered out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for work.

[center]On the Road Again[/center]

The DOL Newsletter - October 6, 2011

DOL Data: There's an App for That
Have an iPhone, iPod Touch or Android phone? Now you can access the latest labor data and news from the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration in the palm of your hand. The latest free mobile app displays real-time updates to the unemployment rate, Unemployment Insurance initial claims, the Consumer Price Index, payroll employment, average hourly earnings, the Producer Price Index, the Employment Cost Index, productivity, the U.S. Import Price Index and the U.S. Export Price Index in real time, as they are published each week, month or quarter. News releases providing context for the data can also be accessed through the app and viewed within a mobile browser or as PDF documents.

US Labor Department launches economic and employment statistics app

Smartphone users gain mobile access to latest labor data and news

WASHINGTON — The most up-to-date employment data and economic news releases from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics and its Employment and Training Administration now can be viewed using a new mobile application.
....

The new app is currently available for the iPhone and iPod Touch as well as Android phones. The Labor Department is working to develop versions for BlackBerry and iPad devices. Visit http://m.dol.gov/apps/ to download this and other mobile apps.

Download the Data, Other Mobile Apps


[center]A Few More Things[/center]

Meet FRED, every wonk’s secret weapon

FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It serves as an online clearinghouse for a wealth of numbers: unemployment rates, prices of goods, GDP and CPI, things common and obscure. Today, FRED is more than a little bit famous, thanks to the public’s fascination with economic data.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Monthly Employment Reports from BLS

The U.S. Census Bureau has its own releases:

U.S. Census Bureau Latest News

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators

For people who need a daily fix:

BLS-Labor Statistics Twitter feed

Tomorrow's news before it happens. The schedule for all economic reports:

Economic Calendar

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Economists React to the May Jobs Report: ‘Unambiguously Positive’

Economists React to the May Jobs Report: ‘Unambiguously Positive’

[SpankMe]

2. Still more jobs? I STILL blame Obama! n/t

[taught_me_patience]

3. but they are all macjobs!

Oh wait... wages rose at the fastest rate since 2009... nevermind. ..

[progree]

4. Over the last month, the last year, and since the job market bottom Feb'10:

Last edited Sun Jun 7, 2015, 10:15 PM - Edit history (1)

In the below tables, all "%" ones are percentage point changes, *not* percent increases or decreases. FOR EXAMPLE, when you see something like this:

+0.1% Unemployment rate

It means that the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points (this EXAMPLE is from May 2015 when the unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.5%). This is an increase of 0.1 percentage points, *not* a 0.1% increase. The corresponding percent increase is (5.5-5.4)/5.4 X 100% = +1.9%, i.e. a 1.9% increase. So in summary, IN THIS EXAMPLE, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points, and also increased 1.9%.

Over the last month:
+280,000 Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey, CES0000000001 )
+397,000 Labor Force (employed + jobless people who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks)
+272,000 Employed
+125,000 Unemployed (jobless people who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks)
+0.1% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate (it's at 59.4%)
+0.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) (to 62.8%)
+0.1% Unemployment rate (at 5.5%). Is Unemployed (as defined above) / Labor Force [N864.HM].
+0.0% U-6 unemployment rate (to 10.8%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
+72,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
-232,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+630,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)


Over the last year (last 12 months):
+3,058,000 Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey, CES0000000001)
+1,840,000 Labor Force
+2,927,000 Employed
-1,087,000 Unemployed
+0.5% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
+0.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-0.8% Unemployment rate
-1.3% U-6 unemployment rate (fabulous. it includes anyone that looked for work even once in the past year)
-616,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+296,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2,612,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2.47% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is 11 months thru April because no CPI data for May yet

The reason there's no data for May yet for the weekly earnings is because the CPI inflation adjustment number for May is not yet available. By the way, this and the payroll jobs numbers are the only numbers in the table above that comes from the Establishment Survey rather than the Household Survey.

All the "over the last year" numbers are really good numbers except the Labor Force Participation Rate shows only a 0.1% increase. Interesting though that there was a 0.5% percentage point increase in the Employment To Population Ratio. The Population being talked about is the civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over, yes, including all elderly people, even centenarians.

Seems to me that there is too much discussion in the media of the Labor Force Participation Rate (the employed plus the jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks, all divided by the population), and not enough attention to what seemingly matters more -- the Employment to Population Ratio. Why aren't we celebrating the increase in the percentage of the population that is employed -- a figure that has been slowly moving up since the job market bottom, despite the growing wave of baby boomer retirements?


Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 63 months thru May 31, 2015: 5'15 - 2'10:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru May 31, 2015)
+12,030,000 Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey, CES0000000001)
+3,775,000 Labor Force
+10,214,000 Employed
-6,439,000 Unemployed
+0.9% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate (woo hoo!)
-2.0% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) (ughh)
-4.3% Unemployment rate
-6.2% U-6 unemployment rate
-2,284,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
-121,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+10,624 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+3.66% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is thru April 2015 because no CPI data for May yet

Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Jobs, as % of All Employed
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]May'14 Feb'15 Apr'15 May'15
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5%

The links to the data above
# Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000
# Employed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194
# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000
# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000
# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

########################################################################
FFI on the most recent jobs report, straight from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age (household survey) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Several graphs of the key economic stats -- http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf

The whole enchilada -- including all 16 "A" tables (the household survey) and all 9 "B" tables (the establishment survey) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

BLS Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

The Council of Economic Advisors' Take on the Jobs Report
https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/06/05/employment-situation-may
(find this at http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea and look for the last "The Employment Situation in" post)

Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner's Corner: http://beta.bls.gov/labs/blogs/ Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BLS_gov

mahatmakanejeeves thread - very comprehensive OP each month when the jobs report comes out, as well as additional material he posts to the thread in the following hours
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141110683

v--- More, including an analysis of this month's numbers at my sigline

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. The Numbers: May Jobs Report

The Numbers: May Jobs Report

[Kingofalldems]

6. This is pure Communism! Gov. Perry says so.

He wears glasses and is smart.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Here's my belated thanks for posting!

(real busy today)

Glad to see the upward revision for March. That had looked pretty rough!