EYES ON IOWA: TRUMP AND CLINTON SURGE 10 DAYS BEFORE THE CAUCUS. CRUZ AND SANDERS FALTERING AT FINI

[riversedge]

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Source: www.theecps.com







EYES ON IOWA: TRUMP AND CLINTON SURGE 10 DAYS BEFORE THE CAUCUS. CRUZ AND SANDERS FALTERING AT FINISH.

http://www.theecps.com/

January 21, 2016




In a new, statewide Iowa poll, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have surged to 9 and 10 point leads in Iowa with just 10 days before the first in the nation voting begins. Clinton receives 52% of the vote and Sanders at 43%. Trump leads his Republican rivals with 33%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio (14%), and Ben Carson (9%) round out the top four with the rest of field under 6%; Rick Santorum -- who won the 2012 Iowa GOP Caucus with 25% of the vote -- has less than 1% of Iowans this time around, and Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa Caucus is at 2%.



The survey began January 18, the day after the latest Democrat debate, and concluded January 20, the day following Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump................



X-posted from Hillary Group

Read more: http://www.theecps.com/

---

Well-Hillary has 2 Iowa polls today showing 9+ points over Sanders,

While Sanders has 1 poll where is up +8.


It is now over yet ladies and gents . Now carry on.





Clinton 52, Sanders 43

[morningfog]

1. How is Hillary surging when she is doing worse than a moth ago?

Double plus good Hillary!

[draa]

2. She losing ground faster this year than in 2008.

I've also noticed people on her side have been living in a 180 World as on late. White is Black. Up is Down. Their reality seems to be skewed.

In 180 World Clinton is the champion of the people and Sanders is the establishment. They've become George W Bush right before our eyes.

[scottie55]

3. Something Is Going On

They don't know what it is. I do know....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511043687

[andrewv1]

4. EXTRA! EXTRA! GREAT HEADLINE UPPER CAPS!

You might think about putting in for a job at one of those sleazy newspaper rags in NY....

Not bad!

[riversedge]

11. You might think of clicking the link and looking at the headline before you look foolish

again by posting a nasty post. as you know according to DU Rules we must post the headline exactly as written.

[ViseGrip]

15. Flawed to the point of absurdity

71 percent of those polls were age 45 and older.
Only 15 percent of those polled were under the age of 34.

Folks, you can't make this stuff up.

54 percent of those polled were women
46 percent of those polled were men

Monmouth really knows how to fuck up polling--to the point where what they're doing is closer to making waffles than polling.

Whatever. Enjoy your "poll".
******************************

from a cross post and the info is important here too.

[snooper2]

25. WHEN I SAW THE SOURCE I THOUGHT IT SAID WWW.THECAPS.COM

[Kingofalldems]

5. But she's finished and about to be indicted!

I read it here on DU.

Benghazi!

[andrewv1]

8. Yeah, EMERSON COLLEGE POLLING IS NUMBER ONE!

[andrewv1]

6. and FOX NEWS ALERTS!

An interesting web site to say the least

[LannyDeVaney]

7. Great news ...

Just a few more days and hopefully all the right-wing trolls on this site will go back in their bunkers.

[riversedge]

20. Oh happy days-when that happens.

[Agony]

9. Ben Carson emerges as a GOP darling; Sanders Slips as Biden is on the move!

[Gmak]

10. In CNN poll, when polling those who say they plan to caucus, vs only polling those who caucused

before, which shows Hillary on top: "The survey from CNN/ORC shows Mr. Sanders, who was trailing Mrs. Clinton significantly in early December, erasing her lead and overtaking her. Likely Democratic caucusgoers now back the Vermont senator over Mrs. Clinton by eight percentage points, 51 percent to 43 percent. Last month she was ahead of him by 18 percentage points."

[bigworld]

12. The sample is very heavily populated with older voters

18-34 Years 53 6.0%
35-54 Years 136 15.4%
55-74 Years 391 44.4%
75+ Years 217 24.6%

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

24. No fucking wonder!

These two groups are mostly for Bernie:

18-34 Years 53 6.0%
35-54 Years 136 15.4%
total 21.4%

These two groups are mostly for Hillary:

55-74 Years 391 44.4%
75+ Years 217 24.6%
total 69%

The poll is a COMPLETE sham!

Oh and the sex:

Percent
Male 46.5
Female 53.5

Another gift to Clinton.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. she's decreasing in Iowa

[murielm99]

14. When this post caught my eye,

I thought it had to be a pro-Bernie post. They seem addicted to all caps.

I did go to the link.

[riversedge]

21. Thanks you. You gave me a chuckle

[Marrah_G]

16. LOL we haven't even had ONE state Primary

[JackRiddler]

17. It's a robocall poll.

I know anytime a robot calls, I hang the fuck up, as do higher proportions of people than with humans.

The results fluctuate by more than 10% per day!

The "finish" is ages away, the all-caps headlines on the site are a tipoff on the intellectual tenor of the outfit.

Emerson College-based, but a for-profit outfit (.com, there's a page for putting in bids) that exploits student labor.

"Methodology" at http://www.theecps.com/#!methodology/c1iwz.

Through the use of a screening question, we usually seek out "likely voters" which has been shown to give a much more representative sample of the populations for most political polling.

Our first step in weighting is to survey more than enough people. This allows us to then be able to systematically reject individual surveys from demographics that are over represented. Next, survey data is weighted with a 3 point decrease in Conservative opinion and a 3 point increase in Liberal opinion to offset the bias in land line only telephone polls.

For the Presidential Polling Initiative the following Methodology will be employed. First, all respondents who did not finish the survey is eliminated, then anyone who finished the survey in under 4 minutes is eliminated (based on 2 standard deviations and length of survey). If respondent said they did not vote in 2012 they are eliminated because prior voting behavior is the best predictor of future voting behaivor. Finally, using a rim weighting the results are weighted based on 2012 final election returns either nationally or by state depending on the sample and then by region (percentage of electoral vote for each region or total vote if it is a statewide poll).

All of which is arbitrary, especially given the extraordinary circumstances of 2016.

[Mufaddal]

18. 538 rates polling agencies

CNN/ORC, which gave Bernie the 8 point lead is rated A-. You'd be right to tout the Monmouth 9+ Hillary figure, since they are also rated A-, although with a smaller sample size to judge from than ORC.

Emerson College, however, is rated C+. I'd be a little more cautious with that one.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

Still, it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the ORC vs. Monmouth figures since they are so wide apart and both are reputable agencies. One friend speculated the difference may be due to Monmouth including more participants in the 65+ age bracket than in past cycles.

[Samantha]

19. Nate Silver gives this pollster a C+

So I am not so sure this data is that reliable.

Sam

[left-of-center2012]

22. Hillary's photo from your linked source

This photo was on your linked article.
Words fail me.

[left-of-center2012]

23. CNN poll: Sanders leads in Iowa

Bernie Sanders has edged out Hillary Clinton by 8 points in Iowa in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, per a new CNN/ORC poll released Thursday.
Sanders has eaten away at Clinton's lead among Democrats throughout the cycle, and has led her in recent New Hampshire polls.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/01/21/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-ted-cruz-iowa-poll/79129928/

[riversedge]

26. Poll: Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in Iowa by 9 points

Released the same day but all I hear on the tube is the Cnn poll




Rebecca Shabad CBS News January 21, 2016, 10:33 AM

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-in-iowa-by-9-points/
Poll: Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in Iowa by 9 points



Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, by 9 percentage points in Iowa, according to a Monmouth College/KBUR-AM survey released Thursday.

[In_The_Wind]

27. Locking

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