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Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:17 PM

TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters

Source: TargetSmart/William & Mary


CONTACT: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
11/1/16

Coleman Bass TargetSmart Communications, LLC (443) 676-1803 Press@TargetSmart.com
TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters
-Clinton Buoyed by Early Vote-

Hillary Clinton’s strength with the early vote in Florida is propelling her to a lead in the key battleground state, according to a new poll released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary. In the poll, Clinton holds a 48 to 40 percent lead over Donald Trump in the Sunshine State, a more advantageous position for Clinton than most other publicly available polling has suggested in the last week or so. As of the morning of November 1st , 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida.

Leveraging TargetSmart’s proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent. Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot. Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubio’s direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubio’s 47 percent. And, among non-early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphy’s 39 percent.

Poll Methodology
The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file. The survey reached 311 respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of early voters in Florida who had participated as of October 31. The survey reached 407 respondents who had NOT voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These non-early vote data were weighted using a two-step process to yield a likely voter model. First, the non-early vote sample was weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of all registered voters in Florida who had NOT participated as of October 31. Then, to derive a likely voter model, a second round of weighting was employed on the non-early vote sample only, in which weights were assigned to each respondent in proportion to their TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score, with higher weights being assigned to respondents with a higher likelihood to vote, and lower weights being assigned to respondents with a lower likelihood to vote. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout model is an ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an individual will vote in the 2016 general election. In this second round of weighting all early voter respondents were assigned a weight of 1, to reflect the fact that they have already voted. No margins of sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interviews.
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About TargetSmart:
TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach. Our superior politically-focused, consultative approach combines consumer data, databases, data integration and consulting solutions for personalized multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart leverages over 25 years of experience in data management to deliver high-performance, reliable data products and solutions.
About William & Mary:
William & Mary is a public university located in Williamsburg, Virginia. Founded by Royal Charter in 1693, it is the second oldest institution of higher education in the United States. U.S. News and World Report ranks William & Mary sixth among all public universities in the country.


Read more: https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

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Arrow 35 replies Author Time Post
Reply TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters (Original post)
brooklynite Nov 2016 OP
Gothmog Nov 2016 #1
jaysunb Nov 2016 #3
Proud liberal 80 Nov 2016 #4
Rose Siding Nov 2016 #5
SunSeeker Nov 2016 #6
Chicago1980 Nov 2016 #7
peggysue2 Nov 2016 #8
Cryptoad Nov 2016 #9
NastyRiffraff Nov 2016 #10
drm604 Nov 2016 #11
DCBob Nov 2016 #12
adigal Nov 2016 #13
Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #17
Divine Discontent Nov 2016 #24
madaboutharry Nov 2016 #19
mahina Nov 2016 #34
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2016 #14
yellowcanine Nov 2016 #15
Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #18
yellowcanine Nov 2016 #21
Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #23
yellowcanine Nov 2016 #25
Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #26
geek tragedy Nov 2016 #20
workinclasszero Nov 2016 #22
Divine Discontent Nov 2016 #27
Ellipsis Nov 2016 #28
mahina Nov 2016 #29
Fahrenthold451 Nov 2016 #30
BluegrassDem Nov 2016 #31
ffr Nov 2016 #32
mahina Nov 2016 #33
riversedge Nov 2016 #35
Vinca Nov 2016 #36
DeminPennswoods Nov 2016 #37

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:18 PM

1. K&R

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:24 PM

3. Good stuff....K/R n/t

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:25 PM

4. What is the rating of this pollster?

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:26 PM

5. Up 17% with early voters, down 1% with those who haven't voted?

I'm too little for this.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:27 PM

6. I love it! But this is going to give the internet concern trolls the sadz. nt

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:27 PM

7. Saw the guy on Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC.

He now has a fellow on from Moody's Analytics who's projecting a big win for Clinton.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:27 PM

8. Just watched this moments ago

Survey and prediction by TargetSmart on Lawrence O's show. Stunning figure of a 28% crossover by registered Republicans. Republicans, one could assume the NEVERTRUMP Republicans, are voting for Hillary Clinton at the top, splitting their ticket for Rubio down ballot. That's a stunning crossover percentage.

If it holds, Trump is toast.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:28 PM

9. this is not going to sit well with all the ,,,,

newbee DUers who have already begun the wake for HRC>

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:35 PM

10. Yes Yes YES!!

Go Florida!

Too bad about Rubio's surge; still this is great news! !

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:36 PM

11. Good news about Clinton and Trump

I just wish that Rubio wasn't doing so well.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:39 PM

12. This is yuuuuge!

This suggests the worse is over and Hillary has made a huge rebound. Plus the fact Dumpster cant win without FL.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:43 PM

13. I don't trust online polls at all, but I don't understand the procedure

 

They used to collect the online data. It seems pretty sophisticated.

Please, let it be true! !!!!!

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Response to adigal (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:56 PM

17. Don't think it was on-line...

The guy on Lawrence O'Donnell was talking about phone conversations with actual voters. This was real polling, I think.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #17)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:29 PM

24. As the release shows above:





Florida Presidential Poll - 530 Online interviews & 188 phone interviews to get the result of 48-40, Clinton +8


But, as for their Early Voting Poll - 311 people were polled after voting, and 55-38, Clinton +17


Online would favor Democrats, but, it's a solid lead, and above the margin of error. As for the Early Voters, +17 is excellent and bodes for a lead for Clinton leading into election day, when more (43-42 Trump +1) are expected to vote.


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Response to adigal (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:05 PM

19. Not online.

They called people who cast early votes.

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Response to adigal (Reply #13)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 05:04 AM

34. They are calling people who already voted and asking who they voted for.

They already have their ethnicity, age, etc. Pretty bulletproof sounding but I'm no statistician.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:44 PM

14. K&R nt

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 09:49 PM

15. If this is happening in Florida it is happening elsewhere also.

Maybe not as many Republicans crossing over in a place like Texas but even if it is only 15-20% it could mean Hillary takes Texas also.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:00 PM

18. Interesting...

one of the points that was made was that Cubans came out in record numbers. In the past, Cuban voters were largely Repub. This might indicate a mass movement of Cubans (and other Hispanics, of course) away from the Repub party and to Clinton.

That shouldn't surprise anyone (except maybe Trump) that has been paying attention. Trump offers a lot of hardline traditional bullshit immigration policies based on strong arm tactics and mass deportations. Clinton is offering comprehensive reform with a path to legalization and possible citizenship. On that basis alone, Hispanics should be dumping Trump.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #18)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:12 PM

21. Hispanic vote potentially decisive in Florida, NC, AZ, NV, and even Texas.

One would expect an energized Hispanic vote to be more decisive in places like NC, AZ, NV, and TX than Florida because a good part of the Florida vote is Cuban - though Cubans are not as Republican as they once were and the Puerto Rican vote has expanded significantly as well there. And of course if many of the Republican Cubans are never Trumpers all bets are off.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #21)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:19 PM

23. Yes to all of that...

also, I have a sneaky suspicion that a lot of the Hispanic vote may not be showing up in polling. Plus, I think there is that thing where a lot of women and laying low about their vote because of their husband/SO, but when in private will cast their vote for Hillary. I have to wonder about the 28% crossover vote, if they are not mostly women.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #23)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:31 PM

25. I don't think there is much question that there is a hidden Hillary vote among some women.

But I don't think that can possibly explain all of this. I think Republican men are crossing over also.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #25)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:32 PM

26. Agree fully...nt

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:07 PM

20. So, NY Times says Trump plus 6, this says Clinton +8

 

Average them and you get Clinton +1 which seems right

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:18 PM

22. Drumpf is dead!

 

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:38 PM

27. For those whose eyes freak out at all that text




Florida Presidential Poll - 530 Online interviews & 188 phone interviews to get the result of 48-40, Clinton +8


But, as for their Early Voting Poll - 311 people were polled after voting, resulting in 55-38, Clinton +17


Online would favor Democrats, but, it's a solid lead, and above the margin of error. As for the Early Voters, I wish they did 500 interviews, but +17 is excellent and bodes for a solid (hopefully insurmountable) lead for Clinton leading into election day, when more (43-42 Trump +1) are expected to vote, just slightly, for Donnie.


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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:46 PM

28. That's about 40% of total votes cast in 2012. How cool.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 12:08 AM

29. Just heard this reported on msnbc and my whole body relaxed.

I wasn't even aware of how much tension I was holding.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 12:15 AM

30. This poll is significantly more accurate than an EXIT poll.

This poll is pretty much as good as an actual result. TargetSmart did a fricking GREAT job on the analytics here. Huge uptick in Latino voters and the Cuban regulars are not feeling the Trump.

4,000,000 votes already cast.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 01:44 AM

31. Last week, one of Clinton's campaign people said they'd know by Wednesday (today)

 

if they'd win Florida or not. I guess this is what he was talking about. I can't remember who the guy was, but I remember seeing him on one of the roundtables.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:18 AM

32. MSNBC's online video link

Source: MSNBC

Exclusive: Stunning Clinton number in FL

In a Last Word exclusive, TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier shares with Lawrence the results of a new Florida Early and Likely Voter survey, which show Clinton winning a staggering 28% of Republican early voters.

Read more: http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/exclusive-stunning-clinton-number-in-fl-798824003656

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 04:54 AM

33. Link goes to scribd and the Jane Doe v. Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein rape suit, then crashes.

For me anyway.

Thanks very much for the other information!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 06:10 AM

35. K and R for the morning folks

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 06:52 AM

36. This poll helped talk me in from the ledge.

If Trump doesn't win Florida, he doesn't win the race.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 10:13 AM

37. Don't the Cubans usually vote for Rs?

It seems that they'd be the ones crossing over and voting for Hillary. The poll also has Rubio with a big lead over Murphy. That fact likely means there's a good bit of ticket splitting going on with Rubio's fellow Cubans rejecting Trump, but still supporting Rubio.

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