Departure of U.S. census director threatens 2020 count

[Seedersandleechers]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by NH Ethylene (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Science

John Thompson is stepping down next month as director of the U.S. Census Bureau. His announcement today comes less than 1 week after a congressional spending panel grilled him about mounting problems facing the agency in preparing for the 2020 decennial census. And Thompson’s pending retirement is weighing heavily on the U.S. statistical community.

Thompson is leaving halfway through a 1-year extension of a term that expired last December. His departure will create what a 2011 law was expressly designed to avoid--a leadership vacuum during a crucial time in the 10-year life cycle of the census, the nation’s largest civilian undertaking. The immediate concern is who the Trump administration will appoint, and how soon it will act.

“The key is to act expeditiously,” says Phil Sparks, co-director of the Census Project, a Washington, D.C. based advocacy organization. “The normal length of time to fill a vacancy [with a nomination] is 6 months, but the Census Bureau doesn’t have the luxury of time.

Ken Prewitt, who led the agency from 1998 to 2001, worries that a long delay in naming a well-qualified replacement for Thompson could be the first step of a long, steep decline in the quality of the federal statistic system, which spans 13 agencies. “That system is fragile, and it wouldn’t take much to damage it severely,” says Prewitt, a professor of social affairs at Columbia University in New York City. “My real fear is that they don’t care enough to do a good job with the 2020 census. And then after doing a bad job, they decide to let the private sector take over.”

Read more: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/departure-us-census-director-threatens-2020-count

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Great more gerrymandering.

[Honeycombe8]

1. I read that the Census doesn't have the money for this census.

The Census Bureau got money, but not nearly the money it needs to do the next Census. It goes along not spending much money, but then in a Census year, the budget is supposed to go WAY up to pay for the immense effort of the Census. The Bureau hires thousands of workers to conduct the Census.

But Trump and Congress cut that budget significantly. The Bureau doesn't have the money it needs to do the Census. That's no doubt why the Director is leaving. And no doubt why the Republican Congress was grilling him...trying to blame him for not being able to do the job with limited funds. Congress doesn't want to be blamed.

I'd leave the job, too. Let THEM figure out a way to do the Census w/o money.

[Seedersandleechers]

2. That's how the republicans work to get

organizations privatized. They under fund them.

[dhill926]

4. yep...

[SunSeeker]

3. This is so fucked up.

[Judi Lynn]

5. Surprise. There is even this new way to screw to public. Who would have seen this coming?

We may as well give up hope that Trump would appoint anyone who's not criminally insane to that position.

[Midnight Writer]

6. These are folk who spend every minute thinking up schemes and get rich doing it

[lindysalsagal]

7. Gee: No one wants to work for the raging orangutan!

He can't fill any posts. Maybe Jarred can run everything while this fool golfs.

[Hortensis]

8. With demographic transitions threatening the GOP more

every day, of course they will try to tamper with the census. Big time.

Anyone know significant ways undercounting in general would HURT Republican politicians and conservative billionaires? Or would they have every reason to keep it underfunded?

From FCW.com:

The announcement comes less than one week after a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing in which Census cost overruns were a central topic, and Thompson acknowledged the projected $5 billion in cost savings "might change" pending a new lifecycle cost estimate to be released this summer.

The Government Accountability Office has suggested that in IT alone, 2020 census cost overruns could hit $1 billion -- a figure not disputed by the bureau.

[kristopher]

9. Hey! We need that money for a border wall.

Get your priorities straight, will ya?

[Hortensis]

10. So you're saying a win-win? :)

[kristopher]

11. If you have an R behind your name...

Reapportionment, Redistricting, And Electors
The census has a profound impact on the way that our nation chooses its leaders. The U.S. Constitution calls for two houses in Congress - one, the Senate, consists of two representatives from each state; the other, the House of Representatives, consists of 435 representatives, distributed among the states based on their respective populations. The size of the House is set by federal statute. After each decennial census, the new population counts are used to reallocate the number of districts per state, according to a mathematical formula set by law, based on the population of that state. Each state is guaranteed at least one congressional district regardless of population. This process is called “reapportionment.”

Under Title 13, U.S.C., the Secretary of Commerce is required to submit the state population totals to the President within nine months of Census Day. Title 2, U.S.C. then requires the President to submit the apportionment to the Clerk of the House within five days of the convening of a new Congress.

After the states receive the number of districts allowed per state, it is their responsibility every decade to draw the boundaries of those districts in their states. This process is called “redistricting.” In some states, the legislature is responsible for redistricting, while in others, independent commissions set redistricting plans.

Both reapportionment and redistricting directly impact the local, state, and national leaders voted to serve in office because of the politics involved in redistricting in each state. For example, many states, led by the majority party, have drawn districts in such a way that opponents to the majority party are sequestered in just a few districts, leading to district maps that are skewed towards one party. In effect this has lowered or even eliminated the competition for seats in the House of Representatives, which has impacted the competition of House seats nationally. This process is called “gerrymandering”.

Reapportionment also influences the number of electors that each state receives for presidential elections. The census is used to determine the number of districts of each state, which in turn determines the number of electors in each state. The number of electors in each state is equal to the congressional delegation, which is the number of representatives in the House and Senate combined.

http://www.civilrights.org/census/your-community/redistricting.html

There are limited options when arranging a permanent Republican Majorty in government with a majority Democratic population.

How close are we to the Conservatives having control of enough states to rewrite the Constitution?

[Hortensis]

12. Scary. Fortunately, extremists are intrinsically dysfunctional,

as we're seeing. It's tragic that conservative voters won't stop them until a great deal of damage is done and a lot of people are hurt. Assuming they will before going right off the cliff, of course.

But for now, I was wondering if undercounting, instead of just helping conservative pols and their dark-money backers, might also substantially hurt them, such as financially.

[Chemisse]

13. Locking

This is a duplicate of this thread:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141770508

It's also an analysis of the topic, so not suitable for LBN on that count as well. Please repost in GD or E & O.