Trump again threatens to leave Canada out of new NAFTA deal

[TomCADem]

Source: CNN

(CNN)President Donald Trump again threatened to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement if Canada doesn't concede to new terms.

In a Saturday morning tweet, Trump said there is "no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal," referring to the tentative bilateral agreement the United States reached with Mexico earlier this week.

"If we don't make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse,Canada will be out," Trump said. He also urged Congress not to "interfere" with negotiations "or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off."

The United States and Mexico announced a preliminary bilateral trade deal on Monday after resolving an issue over auto manufacturing. Canadian officials rejoined the talks this week.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/01/politics/nafta-trump-canada-mexico-deal/index.html

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Talk about mixed messages. In some recent reports, the White House has been assuring Congressional leaders that they are not going to scrap NAFTA or ditch Canada, which opens him up to attacks from Bernie Sanders regarding Trump's promises to trash NAFTA. However, today, Trump once again promises to tear up NAFTA. Perhaps the pressure from Bernie is getting to him.

Bernie Sanders Tells Trump to Keep His Promise on Nafta

Civil-society groups, union leaders and left-wing politicians have opposed almost everything Trump has done. But they’re urging him to stand firm in his attempt to overhaul Nafta -- and face down opposition from business groups, who complain that U.S. companies will be hurt by the proposed changes. Mexico and Canada have called U.S. demands unworkable, including on regional-content requirements for cars and investor-state dispute systems.

Senator Bernie Sanders, an outspoken critic of trade deals in his campaign for president last year, called on Trump to deliver. “When Donald Trump campaigned for president, he promised that he was going to stop corporations from shifting American jobs to Mexico,” Sanders said Wednesday at a rally for the #ReplaceNafta movement in Washington. “For once in your life, keep your promises.”

Many pro-trade Republicans oppose the most contentious U.S. proposals, which the administration says will lure manufacturing back to America. Trump may need votes from the left if he hopes to pass a revised Nafta. That means courting organizations such as advocacy group Public Citizen, which opposes much of Trump’s agenda, including his views on climate change and bank regulations. However, the non-profit is tentatively backing several U.S. positions at the negotiating table, including a push to eliminate tribunals that arbitrate disputes between governments and companies.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. 40% of Vermont's exports go to Canada; 4% go to Mexico. . . . nt

[lark]

2. Cadet Bone Spurs doesn't give a shit.

PUtin told him to hurt Canada economically and by damn that's what he will do. There's nothing that Trudeau could do to change this, other than give drumpf a bigger bribe - which is exactly what drumpf wants him to do. Canada needs to pay him off (in his tiny shriveled orange brain) or he has no motive to buck his beloved master. Can drumpf just discard NAFTA since it was approved by Congress? I know he thinks he can, but then he thinks he's already dictator and is very stupid and deluded.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Does Sanders give a shit about Vermont? The OP specifically mentions Bernie Sanders. . nt

[TomCADem]

24. How to Make Sense of the White House on NAFTA. Populist Protectionism or Not?

On the one hand, you have the White House quietly telling Congressional leaders that there will be no significant changes. On the other hand, you have Trump ripping off Bernie's greatest anti-trade hits complete with tariffs and nuking NAFTA. For example, compare Trump's statements in the OP with Bernie's 2016 press release below.

That being said, it does seem that Trump truly is isolationist given his anti-immigration and anti-trade moves to date, so perhaps this is an instance where Trump actually believes his rhetoric.

https://berniesanders.com/press-release/job-killing-trade-deals-hurt-pennsylvania-workers/

Job-Killing Trade Deals Hurt Pennsylvania Workers

Clinton recently signaled that she might seek modifications in the pact, but Sanders said that’s not enough. “I will not renegotiate the TPP, I will reject it. I will not send any trade deals to Congress that make it easier for corporations to shut down in this country and move abroad.”

He pledged to rewrite the worst trade deals of the last 30 years, including NAFTA. Sanders will also impose countervailing tariffs on imports from China and Japan until they stop dumping steel into the United States and stop manipulating their currencies.

At the news conference here, Sanders was joined by President Mike Smith of the United Steelworkers Local 1557-2 and President Scott Slawson of the United Electrical Workers Local 506.

Pennsylvania voters go to the polls on April 26 to decide how the state will allocate its 189 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer in Philadelphia.

[JHan]

26. got a terrible flashback to the insane anti-trade narratives of 2016.

Just...

SMFH.

[paleotn]

14. Bingo.

Bernie needs to understand that.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. Trump not going to kick Canada out. He can't kick Canada out. He would have tried if it served him.

US runs a trade surplus with Canada (goods and services) and a slight deficit (a few percent) if you only look at goods. And he lies about the specific aspects of automobiles, dairy, metals, and "national security".

Trump can't kick Canada out just by declaring so. NAFTA is a treaty that has been ratified. It takes Congressional action to complete an abrogation of the treaty.

It is not to tRump's advantage, politically, to kick Canada out.

1) He desperately needs a deal, any deal, because he hasn't made any deal with any country. The so-called "deal" with Mexico is only an agreement on a subset of issues.

2) Abrogating NAFTA would be an enormous disruption to the US economy and not to its benefit. Large numbers of tRumpLickers would lose jobs.

3) Other countries would be even more reluctant to trade with the US and would accelerate their movement to trade around the US by trading with each other.

4) If it was an advantage to the US to stop trading with Canada, he would have moved to do so already. Even if it was an advantage to him politically and a detriment to the US, he would have moved already. It is not even an advantage to him politically.

5) Massive punitive tariffs will be reciprocated and have drastic effects on the US economy. But they could be reversed quickly when tRump leaves office.

Finally, tRump has only one trick in his negotiating playbook: act like a bully and hope the other side falls for it.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

12. Good summary, Bernardo. Agrees with what I've read...

on Bloomberg and other sources that are "Trump-wise". Canadian papers give me some good insight, too.

I think trade experts around the world have caught on to his bluster and bullshit, and are fighting back. Good signs out of Europe this week, too.

However, regardless of the current trade turmoil, I regularly try to slap myself back into reality and say "the wealthy always hold a winning hand".

[luvtheGWN]

15. There is one thing that Canada and Russia have in common:

an abundance of natural resources.

Oh, and something else: thousands of kilometres of Arctic Ocean access, which Russia is desperately claiming it owns.

Putin would like nothing better than to see Canada's economy collapse. Besides the fact that tRump hates Trudeau, I'm feeling quite sure that his behaviour towards my country is at Putin's request.

[JHan]

27. ++++++

[MiniMe]

5. He has also been threatening to leave the WTO

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Yes. Despite WTO being good for the US. 6-front trade war not enough, he has to attack whole world

To short-sighted narrow-minded people like the tRump and the tRumpLickers, the WTO seems awful because all they hear about is the bad news when US loses a trade dispute. But the US wins more than loses, and the stability of international trade is a huge boost to the US economy.

It sure seems like he wants to sabotage the economy while pretending to protect it.

RepubliCon enablers and protectors have abandoned all their economic and trading principles just for the tax giveaway to the rich and the CONservative judges.

[MiniMe]

9. That's what dick-taters* do

*A dick-tater is what you get when you cross a penis and a potato

[knightmaar]

6. And Canadians are quaking in their fucking toques

Toque (Tuke, rhymes with Luke) (noun) - a knitted cap worn in winter.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. Not. . . . nt

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

13. AND soon to be toking in their toques.

Canada is a splendid country in so many ways.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

10. Holding a big stick, someone needs to explain to tRump that...

Canada is an integral part of NAFTA.

What his minders really want is no hard commitment to any other nation so they can bully and strong-arm all of them with weak bi-lateral agreements settled in a bar or on a golf course, subject to change on a whim.

Among others, there's three things he and the people around him do not seem to comprehend:
* he does not have the power to impose his commands on the entire world, and
* proven for centuries, multi-lateral trade agreements always work best for the people of the nations, and
* markets will not be stable without those agreements.

..........

[no_hypocrisy]

11. He never intended to include Canada.

[paleotn]

16. Leaving out Canada....

will do serious damage to US business and our economy. It will cost US jobs. They are our 2nd largest trading partner, 3rd largest if you count the EU in total. Our trade deficit with them is a small fraction of our total cross border trade in goods and services with them. Our economies are more closely and intricately tied together than with any other trading partner. The orange idiot is going to tip us into a recession or worse. I only hope the powers that be can put a stop to this shit and repair any damaged caused by his idiocy.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. US runs a trade surplus with Canada (goods and services) & slight deficit if you only look at goods

US runs a trade surplus with Canada (goods and services) and a slight deficit (a few percent) if you only look at goods.

[paleotn]

18. In 2017, I believe it was a slight deficit

I might be wrong, but it flip flops over time. My point is our economies are inextricably linked in an incredibly complex web of connections. Upsetting this relationship will cause serious damage to the US economy and cost people their livelihoods.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. Yes, indeed, can't be over emphasized: inextricably linked. . . . nt

[Marcuse]

20. Funny thing: US taxpayers subsidize Big Dairy. THAT'S SOCIALISM!!!!

The Canadian dairy cartel controls prices and supplies (illegal under US anti trust law). That’s Capitalism.

For those who choose to use it, Canadian milk retails for twice the price of subsidized US milk.

The US production is 10x the Canadian production.

[link:https://www.wisconsinagriculturist.com/dairy/does-canada-really-charge-270-tariff-milk

|

Pierre Lampron, who heads the Canadian dairy farmer lobby group, said the U.S. market is vulnerable to milk surpluses and price crashes. “President Trump isn’t going after the system of supply management as much as looking to dump surplus subsidized U.S. dairy products on the Canadian market,” Lampron said. Trudeau, meanwhile, has pledged to defend supply management.

[luvtheGWN]

22. I wouldn't call the supply management system exactly capitalism.

What it does is ensure that dairy farmers don't over-supply and thus flood the market to lower prices. It keeps them in business and assures that they can stay in business. What happens in the US is that dairy producers receive subsidies and are encouraged to increase their herds and produce as much as possible, to the point where over-production frequently results in milk being thrown out. I have read that the Wisconsin Dairy Farmers Association would very much like to adopt supply management.

One of the reasons Canadians don't want any more dairy products entering the country is because we don't want antibiotic- and bovine growth hormone-"infested" products available in our supermarkets. We already do allow certain cheese and other products in, and my favourite Asiago is from the U.S. I try not to think about the injections those cows have received.......

[Marcuse]

25. It is seems to be a gentler capitalism wherein the smaller producers are not crushed by monopolists

but the industry’s price and supply management is reminiscent of the US oil and rail trusts of the 19th century. Unfortunately, US Dairy will continue to dump milk into the fields and would rather dump it into Canada.

[NickB79]

21. Never make it past Congress

Even the Trumpsters there there would shit bricks, because it would hurt a lot of rural red-state exports.

[rpannier]

23. NAFTA was passed by congress

I do not think he (or anyone in the US gov't) can just 'tear it up'

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

28. It's not about what's best for the U.S., it's about Trump shoving people around.

His "my way or the highway" approach to "negotiating" is right out of the Bully's Handbook. His thought process is based on a "zero sum" approach: it's not enough that I win -- you have to lose, too.

I think part of Donnie Two Scoops showing his ass toward Canada is because he feels he was humiliated by Trudeau after the G7 conference. Remember, with Trump it's always about him.

God help us if the Repugs keep the House in November. IQ45 will see that as a complete validation of himself, and he will execute every whimsical thought that crosses his mind -- or that Hannity whispers in his ear.

And if he is reelected in 2020 (the Russians are still actively attacking our elections, thanks to inaction by Trump and the Repugs), God help the world. He will use the military to shape the rest of the globe in his own misshapened image.

[tirebiter]

29. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

is the future for the Pacific basin. and China will be dominant. This is not an endorsement but I'm getting the awful feeling that this will be what we could have been ahead of with TPP.