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Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:03 AM

UPDATED: Hurricane Florence rapidly intensifies to Category 4, evacuation orders begin in N.C.

Source: Washington Post

Hurricane Florence is rapidly intensifying on its path toward the East Coast and is now a Category 4 with 130 mph winds, the National Hurricane Center said in a special update. Florence is expected to strengthen to 150 mph just prior to landfall somewhere on the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday night.

Computer model forecasts generally project the storm to make landfall between northern South Carolina and the North Carolina Outer Banks, although shifts in the track are still possible and storm impacts will expand great distances beyond where landfall occurs. Given the uncertainty and the time it takes to evacuate, officials in North Carolina have issued mandatory evacuation orders for Dare County and Hatteras Island.

With each passing flight into the eye of the storm and every new computer model forecast, it has become increasingly unlikely Florence will turn out to sea and spare the Eastern Seaboard from potentially devastating storm surge, flooding and wind. There’s even some indication the hurricane will slow or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic later this week, which could lead to a disastrous amount of rain.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/09/09/florence-strengthens-to-hurricane-and-poses-extreme-threat-to-southeast-and-mid-atlantic/?utm_term=.7f5f72b57840&wpisrc=al_news__alert-national&wpmk=1



NOW UPDATED.

Original title/article -

Hurricane Florence strengthens to Category 3, evacuation orders begin in N.C.

Hurricane Florence is rapidly intensifying on its path toward the East Coast and is now a Category 3 with 115 mph winds, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. update. Florence is expected to become a strong Category 4 hurricane -- nearly a Category 5 -- just prior to landfall somewhere on the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday night.

Computer model forecasts generally project the storm to make landfall between northern South Carolina and the North Carolina Outer Banks, although shifts in the track are still possible and storm impacts will expand great distances beyond where landfall occurs. Given the uncertainty and the time it takes to evacuate, officials in North Carolina have issued mandatory evacuation orders for Dare County and Hatteras Island.

With each passing flight into the eye of the storm and every new computer model forecast, it has become increasingly unlikely Florence will turn out to sea and spare the Eastern Seaboard from potentially devastating storm surge, flooding and wind. There's even some indication the hurricane will slow or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic later this week, which could lead to a disastrous amount of rain.

"There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from Florence: Storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland and damaging hurricane-force winds," the National Hurricane Center wrote Monday. Storm surge is the rise in ocean water above normally dry land at the coast, which can inundate homes, roads and businesses.


I was literally just on the NHC webpage looking at the latest update and the path has stayed pretty steady headed towards the Carolinas. There is still more bath water for it to go through to strengthen on its way.

And here is a scary tweet from the article -



TEXT

Bob Henson

@bhensonweather

If the latest NHC forecast comes to pass, #Florence will be the only hurricane on record to make a Cat 4 U.S. landfall so far north. The dramatic slowing on Friday, and the implied risk of extreme rainfall, is the other very concerning detail on this map. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
11:12 PM - Sep 9, 2018

49 replies, 4792 views

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Reply UPDATED: Hurricane Florence rapidly intensifies to Category 4, evacuation orders begin in N.C. (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 OP
bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #1
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #2
getagrip_already Sep 2018 #3
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #4
unc70 Sep 2018 #5
Yavin4 Sep 2018 #30
steve2470 Sep 2018 #11
FBaggins Sep 2018 #14
getagrip_already Sep 2018 #15
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #19
SCantiGOP Sep 2018 #21
getagrip_already Sep 2018 #25
SCantiGOP Sep 2018 #41
getagrip_already Sep 2018 #45
woodsprite Sep 2018 #6
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #10
PearliePoo2 Sep 2018 #7
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #8
Dopers_Greed Sep 2018 #9
Jedi Guy Sep 2018 #12
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #13
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #16
Hermit-The-Prog Sep 2018 #20
Roland99 Sep 2018 #17
Cryptoad Sep 2018 #18
elmac Sep 2018 #22
kwassa Sep 2018 #23
woodsprite Sep 2018 #24
kwassa Sep 2018 #32
FromMissouri Sep 2018 #34
kwassa Sep 2018 #46
Scurrilous Sep 2018 #26
B2G Sep 2018 #27
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #28
B2G Sep 2018 #29
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #31
B2G Sep 2018 #33
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #35
B2G Sep 2018 #36
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #38
Cold War Spook Sep 2018 #37
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #39
Throckmorton Sep 2018 #44
joshcryer Sep 2018 #40
LisaL Sep 2018 #42
Baclava Sep 2018 #47
a la izquierda Sep 2018 #43
OnlinePoker Sep 2018 #48
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #49

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:21 AM

1. Looks like a wallop-e-roo

Batten down the hatches. More storm damage.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:39 AM

2. When Harvey sat over Texas and stalled last summer

similar to what the models have been suggesting Florence will do, some areas there got 40+" of rain. Harvey hit TX as a Cat 4 and it literally obliterated the little towns of Rockaport and Fulton, TX. That is when the famous "blue shed" that managed to survive intact, made its national appearance (those who watched the Jeff Piotrowski livestream got to know it well)!



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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:49 AM

3. Where is FEMA?

What gets me is that we haven't heard a single word from FEMA. I just went to NC news sites and they have the governor saying state resources are being deployed ahead of the storm, a lot of emergency talk, but he never mentioned fema. Neither is anyone else.

[quote]Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency on Friday. In a news release on Sunday, he warned people to “take steps now” to be ready when the storm arrives.

“Everyone in North Carolina needs to keep a close eye on Florence and take steps now to get ready for impacts later this week,” Cooper said in the release. “State emergency management, transportation, health experts and others are making sure North Carolina is prepared for the storm, and I urge the public to review your emergency plans and gather your supplies now.”

...

n addition to the state of emergency, Cooper “temporarily waived certain restrictions for trucks and heavy vehicles to help farmers harvest and move crops and livestock ahead of the storm and help utilities and other equipment be ready to respond if needed,” according to the release.

N.C. Emergency Management was working to plan deployment of resources across the state ahead of the storm.[/quote]

Granted, these are state news outlets, but really, fema must be on sabatical for a gop state gov to not mention coordination with a gop run agency.

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:55 AM

4. They usually have some sort of Field Office/Remote office in every state

and I expect they are aware. Since the storm is still about 3 - 4 days away, they still have time before they need to really deploy. They usually defer to the states to do the initial preps but should have plans as to what may need to deploy where because the forecast tracks may change significantly and it would be a waste of resources to send stuff to someplace where the storm isn't going to be headed.

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:59 AM

5. Gov Cooper of N.C. is a Dem

Most of the storm response in N.C. is done by local governments. The shelters are mostly run by county Social Services, not by FEMA or the Red Cross (who get way too much credit for limited work they are reimbursed for while mostly fund raising).

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Response to unc70 (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:54 PM

30. Trump and the Republicans will have a Democrat to blame if crisis support gets botched.

If all goes well, then it's the brilliant leadership of Trump.

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:31 AM

11. "We're closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Florence"

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:35 AM

14. FEMA started working the storm late last week

What would expect to have heard from them at this point?

This far ahead, they're mostly repositioning supplies from GA/MD to military bases closer to the expected impact areas (though further inland than some might expect).

They've already grabbed so many trucks that freightwaves.com is predicting the possibility of a "black swan" event shifting freight availability all up and down the east coast.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #14)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:48 AM

15. I'm thinking back to past storms....

Where they were front and center with messages about evacuating, preparing, and them pre-positioning supplies and personell.

They also used to closely work with local first responders, establishing lines of communications.

Maybe it's still going on, but they aren't talking about it. Maybe they don't want trump to stop them......

I don't know. It just seems this is a sandly like storm, and nero is fiddling with his smart phone (which is ironic since he isn't).

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #15)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:02 PM

19. There have been threads in GD where someone mentioned

being in a supermarket in SC when an EAS (Emergency Alert System) alert went out and everyone's phone in the store started alarming. That is part of how they handle it nowadays. I believe all new phones have to be EAS-capable and the NWS has access (as well as gov't officials) to utilize the system to do blast alerts (plus EAS alerts will appear on local TV stations as a red scrolling banner at the bottom of the screen, and will often be heard on radio as well if it is a high enough priority alert).

There is also "Ready.gov" and many municipalities have "Ready <fill in blank>" sites setup to automatically send out text messages and/or emails to alert to various emergencies, whether local or national (including weather-related). I know I am subscribed here to Philly's "ReadyPhiladelphia" feed.

One of the dangers of too much "national" hype is that this is a huge country and in this case, the hurricane is not going to affect places like California (and their wildfires are not going to affect us over here in Philly), so much of the info blast that you may be looking for is going to be "local".

You can try checking out the steams of the local news stations in the affected states and will definitely see the "messaging" that I am sure is going on!!!

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:33 PM

21. FEMA will be here in force

Remember, there are a lot of white Republicans in the Carolina. It's not a shithole county like Puerto Rico or California.

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:29 PM

25. were they in fl in force?

trump has property there.

People were still saying fema had its head up its butt.

I just don't have a good feeling it's being well run. I've checked local media outlets, and I've talked to residents. Not a lot of federal visibility.....

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #25)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:48 PM

41. My comment was snarky

But the truth is Trump and his cohorts will at least put a lot more effort into the Soitheast than they did for a region that Trump probably thought was a foreign country.
In SC everything below Columbia is closed tomorrow “until further notice” and they are reversing the east-bound Intestates at noon when a mandatory evacuation of coastal counties takes effect.
Seeing as it could hit near Virginia evacuating Hilton Head seems a bit premature, but we have had Governor’s lose elections due to under or over-reacting tonpending storms.

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #41)

Tue Sep 11, 2018, 08:24 AM

45. the hype can be sickening... but.....

This storm deserves it. It will be every bit of hazel. Hazel hit sc/nc in 1954 and the terms used to describe its aftermath included "annihilated". Ever pier for 170 miles of coastline was gone. As few homes as there were then, almopst all of them were wiped out.

This has the same basic structure. It is the real deal. It can be a lot worse if the system ends up stalling just offshore, which is what some models are showing.

Trump is largely irrelevant in the planning cycle though. It is largely up to his agencies. Most of FEMA has been gutted through loyalty purges. Those left are bitter and afraid. Even if they want to do a good job, they probably can't.

But what will really frost peoples netherlands will be the lack of effort to clean up and rebuild. This is an administration that sees these storms as buying opportunities. So don't expect a lot of road reconstruction, or emergency electrical/water/sewage infrastructure repairs, or even clean up funds.

That is where the federal gov'ts involvement typically is. Money is behind all of it, and this congress doesn't like emergency funding disaster relief.

Can you imagine the howells from the tea party if the "establishment" wants a lot of money to rebuild the east coast after ignoring texas and florida? It's gonna be a shite show. Nothing will be done before miidterms. That would be the case under a normal admin, but it will be worse under this one.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:00 AM

6. Even for us in DE, they're saying 5-10" of rain from this if it doesn't move

from the course it's on now. Some of the areas around here are already at 200-300% of normal rainfall for the year.

Just spent a week at Ocracoke and Hatteras, which is something we do every year. A week wasn't nearly enough time to enjoy the beach and island life. We usually try to do 2-3 wks. Been going down for 22 years, and we count ourselves lucky since we've only been chased away early by one storm a few years ago (can't remember the name, but I think it started with a B). We left early because we wanted to get our fifth wheel packed up and out before they shut down the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel.

Everybody in the path of Florence please stay safe!

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Response to woodsprite (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:29 AM

10. Yeah, the far southern part of our CWA

(County Warning Area) under NWS's Mt. Holly Office (notably the Delmarva), has a potential impact on their radar. Everyone in the tri-state area is worried about more rain. Heck I've had almost 4" in the past 4 days and saw reports out in the Lancaster, PA area and west where they got 3 - 5" of rain (remnants of Gordon) just today!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:03 AM

7. Just now upgraded to CAT 4!


Get out people. Be smart!

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Response to PearliePoo2 (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:20 AM

8. Yup - just saw the WaPo update.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:26 AM

9. I'm not worried...after the storm has cleared...

Our fearless leader will toss paper towels to the people that got soaked.

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Response to Dopers_Greed (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:31 AM

12. Was just thinking about that.

I wondered to myself how quickly 45 will be on the scene to throw paper towels into the crowd. Truly inspiring leadership right there...

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Response to Dopers_Greed (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:32 AM

13. As long as he doesn't have a golf course there

he won't care.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:52 AM

16. "Cryin' won't help you; prayin' won't do you no good."

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:54 AM

17. It's the not gays or abortion what wrought this. It's GOP gerrymandering

God is issuing sentence upon republicans


...


Or something


...


Glad my daughter is in Germany now. She was at Ft Bragg

Stay safe everyone!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:01 PM

18. Is God Smiting the Carolina's for being RED!

Godspeed to all in its path,,,,,better stock up on paper towels and Play-Douh!

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Response to Cryptoad (Reply #18)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:54 PM

22. he or she did a good job smiting another red state, MI, last 2 weeks of Aug.

 

flooding rains, endless T-Storm trains, straight line winds and tornados. A motel I was staying at up north got taken out by a small tornado, shut the highway down, spent the night, no electric &, in the morning, no water

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:57 PM

23. My older brother is vacationing in Myrtle Beach .....

my younger one just postponed his on the Outer Banks. He goes every year at this time, and has had this problem before.

We evacuated the Outer Banks as a hurricane approached, and it really sucks. The entire area is leaving at once, and there are only two ways off the OB. It took us 7 hours to drive the 70 miles to Elizabeth City. We also got caught in a category 1 on the Outer Banks with no time to evacuate. There is a reason all the vacation houses are built high up on piers.

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Response to kwassa (Reply #23)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:24 PM

24. I was just on some of their FB pages

and I couldn't believe the people (both visitors and residents) asking if they should go. One person said they just bought recently and are expecting family to fly in on Thursday for vacation. I suspect there will be no "flying in" to Dare County on Thursday, let alone people on the island vacationing. There were people last night on the lists asking who they should contact to get renters insurance -- these were people that were already in their rental. Someone was complaining about spending about 8K on a rental for the family for the week and now they're going to lose their money unless they could get rental insurance. He was told that he would be hard pressed to find anyone that would cover him for the current week.

I just don't get it....

S-curves in Rodanthe are already washing over, as well as Hwy 12 on Ocracoke. On Hyde Cty's page, they showed a clip of water coming up the ORV ramp near the ferry docks.

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Response to woodsprite (Reply #24)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:12 PM

32. I would never go back without vacation insurance.

We went the first week of August, and everyone said that we didn't need to worry about hurricanes. 2004.

So, we get a tropical storm traveling up north that makes a sudden left turn and hits Hatteras and Ocracoke. It becomes the first named hurricane of the season. Hurricane Alex.

We has some flooding of the low areas, but Ocracoke campgrounds got nailed. Several hundred cars were flooded with seawater, which is a total loss situation. Because of the way the storm came ashore, the soundside homes got the worst flooding, and many of those were local residents.

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Response to kwassa (Reply #23)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:22 PM

34. Pawley's Island

 

We were there as Hugo approached. Had rented the cottage for a week. Saw the track aiming at our location. Decided to abandon the island. When we went back next year, the cottage we had been in was gone, as was the dune that had been between the cottage and the ocean. And in related flood memories, I just exchanged texts with my son in Boulder, on the fifth anniversary of the hundred year flood there. He kept me informed during the rising creek, said he thought the sump pump was staying ahead of it. Then the power went out.

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Response to FromMissouri (Reply #34)

Tue Sep 11, 2018, 08:12 PM

46. I've seen a cottage smashed by the ocean.

and it was an old one, a Victorian, killed by a storm in Nags Head. It really was a graphic display of the ocean's power.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:50 PM

26. As seen from the Space Station.




Not much in its path...

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:26 PM

27. Entire South Carolina coastline has been ordered evacuated.

 

It's gonna be a shit show.

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Response to B2G (Reply #27)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:45 PM

28. The models haven't shown it landfalling down that far

but I expect the storm surge is what is an issue - particularly the barrier islands.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #28)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:53 PM

29. The EPS ensemble does.

 

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Response to B2G (Reply #29)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:11 PM

31. The 12Z GEFS has the ensemble mean way north on the NC/VA line!

I am hoping the 0Zs will come to a consensus - and they really need to get a better idea within 48 hours of landfall.



(you are making me exert my hobby on 2 forums - this and a weather forum - at the same time!!!!!!! )

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #31)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:19 PM

33. Check out Storm2k.

 

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Response to B2G (Reply #33)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:22 PM

35. Have been there but post on AmericanWX

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/

(have been on the above since 2007 when it was still called EasternWX)

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #35)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:24 PM

36. Will check it out! Nt

 

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Response to B2G (Reply #36)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:27 PM

38. They have regional forums too to discuss local weather.

A lot of mets post on there including NWS and Accuweather ones, etc.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:25 PM

37. Onslow County NC

 

schools are now closed until next week. Gives people time to go inland.

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Response to Cold War Spook (Reply #37)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 03:28 PM

39. Wow. They need to do that coast-wide

The schools may end up being used as evacuation shelters too.

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Response to Cold War Spook (Reply #37)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 09:09 PM

44. So has Horry county SC.

Schools closed till at least monday.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #40)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 05:49 PM

42. Yikes.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #40)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 06:47 PM

47. Never trust the forecasters 100%. Looks like a dip likely to occur now





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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:31 PM

43. Good luck Carolinas DUers.

I am not looking forward to the remnants hitting WV. It’s soggy enough from days of heavy rain.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Thu Sep 13, 2018, 04:12 PM

48. Now down to a weak Cat 2 with 100 mph winds

I think it might end up as a Cat 1 when it comes ashore, but it still has a ton of water that is going to be dumped on the Carolinas.

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Response to OnlinePoker (Reply #48)

Thu Sep 13, 2018, 05:20 PM

49. What has happened though

is that the wind field has expanded so hurricane-force and tropical-storm force winds will be impacting a larger area (radius) than expected. Plus the expectation continues to be that it will stall for a bit and drift, which means that it will just sit and unleash wind-swept rain in the same general area until it finally gets caught up in a cold front anticipated to move through the area next week.

The big question mark of the moment is whether it will actually landfall somewhere or just sit barely off the coast and drift south.

Anyone interested in seeing Florence's power can check out the livestream at Frying Pan Shoals (at the platform) -



(I expect "someone" might complain about what's left of that flag! )

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