GOP-affiliated voters outperforming Democrats in key states' early voting: report

[brooklynite]

Source: The Hill

Republican-affiliated voters are outpacing Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in several states with key elections this fall, according to NBC News.

The news outlet, citing data provided by TargetSmart, reports that Republican-affiliated early voters are exceeding Democratic-affiliated early voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas.

The only state where Democratic-affiliated voters are outperforming Republicans is in Nevada, according to the eight races for which TargetSmart provided data to the outlet.

Senate races in seven of those states have already begun.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412610-gop-affiliated-voters-outperforming-democrats-in-key-states-early-voting

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For those inclined to yell "fake news", it'll take you all of about 10 minutes to validate the numbers from State Election offices.

[ck4829]

1. It might be time to officially declare the federal government of the US illegitimate

[Guppy]

2. Republicans always vote

when you saw them lining up in Cobb County you knew it was republican. That is a god awful county.

[qazplm135]

3. it's not fake news, it's just premature news

the article itself notes that most of these numbers don't include actual in-person voting which only started today in Texas and several other states, and is primarily based on absentee ballots.

Well, republicans usually lead in absentee ballots and democrats usually lead in in person early voting, so saying that at this point, primarily based on the former that republicans lead early voting is saying almost nothing.

If this were a useful article it would do one of two things:

1. actually wait for a sample size of early in person voting
2. compare prior absentee balloting to this year's and see what, if any, differences there are.

Heck, maybe republicans are killing it in absentee ballots compared to prior years and this is a sign of a red wave, but you wouldn't know it (or anything else useful) from that article.

I am fully prepared for the possibility that the blue wave flounders, but that article says nothing useful in that regard one way or the other.

[obamanut2012]

6. Early voting started TODAY in FL

Most people I know are voting this weekend. I was out of the office today and voted as part of my lunch break time.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. Right vbm will likely lean republican in these states.

[obamanut2012]

4. Early voting literally started this morning here in FL

Old people are who mainly vote on a Monday, because the rest of us are working. I was able to vote during a break today, but most folks I work with are voting either after work or this weekend.

So, maybe not fake news, but skewed news and clickbait headers.

SO WHAT?

[brooklynite]

28. However, there are also vote-by-mail numbers factored in...

[CaptainTruth]

5. Two points to consider:

1) Some of these registered Republicans are voting for Democrats.

2) Independents will decide many elections, & from the polls I've seen they're leaning Democratic.

[Snellius]

10. Great points. The big wild card is independents. Will they vote?

Partisans are pretty locked in and riled up but indies may not be so motivated for or against Trump which this election is completely about.

[bluestarone]

25. This i agree with

The independents need to join DEMOCRATS and get this job done!!!!!!!!!

[SayItLoud]

7. So much talk of the BLUE WAVE coming keeps people home IMO....

Figure someone else will carry the water. If we don't take the house because of low turn out, apathy or assuming the wave will vote...then I believe we deserve what we get. I voted already. I'm encouraging and helping others to vote.

[JudyM]

22. Agree completely. That's what Sanders has been crisscrossing the country saying at rallies.

Not to rely on any blue wave which may or may not materialize.

[Kablooie]

24. Yes. There has been too much gloating and confidence.

Combined with the fact of Trump voters being extremely manipulatable.
Trump says the boogie man will get you if you don't go out and vote and his people believe him.
He has an army of robots that he controls.

[muffinsforbreakfast]

8. Independents

But aren't we really only interested in Independents and Republicans being fed up and voting Democratic. And if Republicans are voting in an non-presidential year, it could be a large percentage are voting Democratic.

[ebbie15644]

9. I live in a red area in PA and they still love trump and they are excited to vote.

[louis c]

17. Thanks for the Fox News update.

The Democrats will gain the most in Pennsylvania. We will pick up 4 or 5 Congress seats. Casey will bury the Repuke and the Governor will win by 20.

Tell your "friends" in the Red Area of Pennsylvania to go fuck themselves for me.

[ebbie15644]

23. I understand that and believe me, I am praying this happens

I just know where I live the world looks differently and the only hope I have is these polls

[groundloop]

11. Well then I guess there's no reason to get off my fat white ass and vote

As has been pointed out already, much early voting just started so it's far too early to be making any claims like this.

GET OUT THE VOTE !!!!!!

[grantcart]

12. Why do they only have numbers for TN MT and NV?

[LBM20]

13. READ THE ARTICLE! They are talking about ABSENTEE VOTING and not in-person early voting. In these

states, Repubs vote absentee more and Dems vote early in-person more.

[grantcart]

15. In many states absentee/mail in voting is the largest voting bloc

AZ is over 70%
CO is 94%
WA/OR is 100%

[grantcart]

14. Correct about AZ. 44-32% Only 48% women. Mostly 55 and over

[louis c]

16. The numbers include mail in absentee ballots.

They always favor Republican. But the polls show that 65 and over favor Democrats for the first time in years.

We'll see how this all plays out. A 65% turnout, to me, means the Democrats will win.

[grantcart]

18. AZ had numbers available but neither TX FL or GA had any

TN had totals but no breakdown by party

[grantcart]

19. Suggest you delete and reissue with a link to the NBC news report

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

1) It gives much more statistical data and background than the abbreviated Hill report

2) The data isn't from Secretary of State offices and in most cases cannot be confirmed there.

3) The data is from Target Smart which is running data base reports based on individual voting (and so is not available at most SOS offices). No indication of bias as TS is a firm strongly committed to and only serves Democratic candidates.

Data analysis conducted by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab. Voter file data, collected by TargetSmart, contains information on most voters’ turnout history and selected demographic information.

[Vinca]

20. Doesn't mean they're all voting for Republicans.

[Bengus81]

26. Telling me they've already opened absentee ballots?? Nonsense..........

How would they know who's voted for who??

[brooklynite]

29. They know the registration of the voter requesting to early vote or vote-by-mail.

That's what the data refers to.

[RandySF]

27. No but

The company that sold the data to MSNBC said it’s not a correct interpretation.