Trump argues economy has been stifled by rising interest rates

[DonViejo]

Source: The Hill



BY BRETT SAMUELS - 01/08/19 08:28 AM EST

President Trump early Tuesday took a swipe at the Federal Reserve, arguing the economy's performance has been held back by the central bank's decision to raise interest rates.

The president touted the economy's "REALLY good" numbers in a tweet, adding, "Can you imagine if I had long term ZERO interest rates to play with like the past administration, rather than the rapidly raised normalized rates we have today.

"That would have been SO EASY!" Trump tweeted. "Still, markets up BIG since 2016 Election!"

Link to tweet

Trump has repeatedly targeted the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for criticism over gradually increasing interest rates. The Fed issued four rate hikes this year, prompting outcry from a president who has tied the economy's performance to his administration's. Trump often touts low unemployment numbers and the stock market performance, though the market suffered overall losses in 2018.

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/424276-trump-argues-economy-has-been-capped-by-raising-interest-rates

[Roy Rolling]

1. Statements Like This

His viewpoint and statement on the economy is why he ran five, once-healthy companies into bankruptcy.

[Doodley]

2. He understands every issue, like an eight-year-old child.

[Botany]

3. Lack of knowledge of the subject has never stopped Trump from speaking about the subject.

https://www.npr.org/2018/12/31/678416352/chickpeas-sit-in-silos-as-trumps-trade-wars-wage-on

Chickpeas Sit In Silos As Trump's Trade Wars Wage On.

On a recent rainy day, farmer Allen Druffel stands outside a silo shuffling his feet in the gravel. This co-op bin is where he stores his dried garbanzo beans in the tiny town of Colton, Wash. The place should be busy; trucks should be loading and hauling this year's crop to markets and international ports. But midafternoon, there's just the rain.

Since farmers like Druffel brought in this year's crops, hardly any garbanzos — or chickpeas — have moved.

"Thirty to 40 percent of our total revenue is in the bin," Druffel says. "And we're not sure what we want to do with it."

And it's bad times for lentils and peas, too. In the agriculture industry, these are all called pulse crops. The largest importers of U.S. pulse crops have slapped tariffs on them, and they've been sitting in silos ever since.

The real trouble started in early 2017, with the U.S. pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Late in 2017, India imposed a global tariff on pulse crops and other farm products to protect its own growers. Then came President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. China and India are the two largest buyers of American garbanzos, peas and lentils, and those exports have all but stopped. Other countries are holding off on buying them, too, while the prices are unstable.

[DetlefK]

4. Yes, we can imagine an economy with 0% interest-rate. And it's not pretty.

An overheating economy, where money gets invested left and right, with no regard to whether the investment is sound and whether the corporation is viable.

We would have a chaotic rise and collapse of companies every single day, because there would be no baseline to restrict investments to corporations that turn a certain minimum of profit.

There would be no dampening-mechanism to prevent over-reactions of the market and stock-market.

[Tobin S.]

5. Tobin argues economy has been stifled by Trump.

[progree]

6. Not up all that BIG since 2016 election -- S&P 500 up 19.2% since election day close

as of yesterday's 2550 close. 11/8/16 close: 2140.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC

[progree]

7. Charles Schwab, the person, used to bash Obama for low interest rates

During the 2012 presidential campaign, he supported Mitt Romney. One of his beefs with Obama was that interest rates were too low, hurting people, especially seniors, with low interest on their savings.

Sigh. How times have changed.

[karynnj]

8. Obama had lower fed interest rates (not zero) because he had an economy that needed stimulation

because the stock market had lost about half its value between September 2008 and when Obama entered office.
Trump was handed an ebonomy that had clawed its way back.

The way that the fed rates affect people is through interest rates they pay or that they receive. The interest rates they pay can be seen by looking at things like the prime interest rate or the mortgage rates. Here is a link that shows the trend in average mortgage interest rates. https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates While it is true that those rates increased in 2017 and 2018, but the rise was neither percipitous nor did it even bring rates anywhere near the historical level or even the rate at the end of 2008. (Both Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan would have had more reason to complain.)

Note there is the other side, the amount of money paid on treasury bills in interest. People who hold treasury bills or CDs (many for income in retirement) saw their returns drastically decline in the Obama years. Banks offered around 1% interest at the lowest point. That is now closer to 3%.

[kimbutgar]

9. Does the idiot not know we can't borrow money unless we raise rates to make our treasuries

Attractive to foreign buyers. Unfortunately the rates will have to go up more because of this stupid shutdown.