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Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:58 AM

West Virginia Poll: If Manchin gets in, right now he would beat Justice

Source: West Virginia Metro News

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — If Senator Joe Manchin were to enter the race for governor, right now he would beat incumbent Gov. Jim Justice, according to the latest version of the MetroNews Dominion Post West Virginia Poll.

In a theoretical head-to-head matchup, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Manchin while 39 percent said they would vote for Justice. The final 12 percent said they are not sure.

Manchin, a Democrat, has said he will announce after Labor Day whether he intends to run for a return to the Governor’s Office.

Manchin was a big supporter of Justice, who was elected as a Democrat before switching parties. But in recent months, Manchin has been publicly critical of Justice’s work habits as governor.

Read more: http://wvmetronews.com/2019/08/30/west-virginia-poll-if-manchin-gets-in-right-now-he-would-beat-justice/



If he runs for VW-GOV, that'll likely mean we'll need another Senate win elsewhere to take control.

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Reply West Virginia Poll: If Manchin gets in, right now he would beat Justice (Original post)
brooklynite Aug 2019 OP
in2herbs Aug 2019 #1
cloudythescribbler Aug 2019 #2
Polybius Aug 2019 #20
SharonAnn Aug 2019 #22
JI7 Aug 2019 #5
in2herbs Aug 2019 #14
JI7 Aug 2019 #15
FBaggins Aug 2019 #6
NurseJackie Aug 2019 #7
JonLP24 Aug 2019 #12
NurseJackie Aug 2019 #16
JonLP24 Aug 2019 #17
TeamPooka Aug 2019 #9
Politicub Aug 2019 #13
TwilightZone Aug 2019 #18
awesomerwb1 Aug 2019 #3
TheRealNorth Aug 2019 #4
sandensea Aug 2019 #8
appalachiablue Aug 2019 #10
not_the_one Aug 2019 #11
rpannier Aug 2019 #19
not_the_one Aug 2019 #21
pstokely Aug 2019 #23

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 10:11 AM

1. Dems can't rely on Manchin's party-line vote so let him go.

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 10:25 AM

2. no -- Manchin might be the most "Democratic" senator WV would elect

I am not knowledgeable of political facts on the ground in WV (never having been there) but it seems to me that UNLESS another Democrat who is at least as good/not more GOPish can be elected senator there, then the Dems need that seat

If he votes for a Dem majority leader to replace McConnell, then he is better than the "best" Republican.

By the same measure, however, in the MANY areas represented by Democrats where more progressive Democrats COULD well be elected, we SHOULD primary them and oppose the DNC's efforts to crush any ability of autonomous progressive national mobilization within the Party. In my district (Neal's in MA), DEFINITELY a more progressive Democrat can be elected -- one who would CUT the military budget rather than justify its ballooning on the grounds of jobs in the district. The same goes, I think for Sen Gillibrand in NY and LOTS of other Democrats in Congress. There is no substitute for doing the work on the ground to get a constituency to the point of being willing to support a more progressive candidate in largely "red" areas, but in the meantime, Dems need to back 'the best we can get' even if that isn't exactly what progressive Democrats would like

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Response to cloudythescribbler (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:01 PM

20. If Manchin wins, he would pick his replacement

So it'll be another Democrat. The replacement will be a Democrat, and certainly can't be any worse.

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Response to cloudythescribbler (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 10:54 PM

22. Numbers count, to win the majority and remove McConnell as Senate Leader.

Even if he’s not “your kind of Dem or mine”, it adds. A count to win the Dem majority.

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 10:54 AM

5. we can rely on his vote to control Senate

 

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Response to JI7 (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 01:48 PM

14. Political party makes no difference if he votes R and is a registered D.

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #14)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 01:50 PM

15. yes it does. control of Senate means Democrats can decide

 

what comes up for votes and control committeess and investigations.

it's bs to claim no difference

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 11:03 AM

6. Right!

Anything less than 100% party-line support might as well be a Republican!

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 11:07 AM

7. Even if he votes 100% with the GOP, he's puts us one seat closer to taking control of the senate.

Dems can't rely on Manchin's party-line vote so let him go.
These purity tests serve no good purpose. Especially for those of us who can count and who value being one seat closer to having a majority with him. It's maddening every time this keeps being brought up. Fact of the matter is, as "imperfect" as he is... he's the BEST we can hope for at that point in time when it comes to West Virginia voters. If not him, they'll elect a republican... when we're one down and they're one-up... that's a net loss of TWO SEATS. (I LOVE MANCHIN!! I HOPE HE STAYS!!)

?w=768




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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 12:46 PM

12. I believe Ford

He shouldn't have voted to confirm Kavanaugh let him run for governor.

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Response to JonLP24 (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 02:03 PM

16. That doesn't change the math. Be happy with what you've got.

I believe Ford. He shouldn't have voted to confirm Kavanaugh let him run for governor.
So do I. No he shouldn't have. But he did. Any desire to "punish" him by removing him from office only serves to harm Democrats.

That doesn't change the math. Be happy with what you've got. When we LOSE a Democrat and they GAIN a Republican... that's a net loss of TWO for our side. I'm happy with this bird in the hand.

One day, the Manchin haters will regret his being replaced with a REPUBLICAN senator. There will come a time when all we need is just ONE MORE Democrat to gain the majority and control the Senate.

If I had to choose between him and a Republican who actually caucuses with the GOP... I'll choose Manchin! We're lucky to have him!

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #16)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 02:41 PM

17. It is up to West Virginia but I certainly won't miss him

Ford's sister-in-law: Manchin and Collins created an 'alternate reality' to support Kavanaugh

Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, and Collins, a Republican from Maine, said they believed Ford when she said she had been sexually assaulted but that they didn't think there was corroboration to prove it was Kavanaugh.

"I think it's their way to sort of get out of this difficult bind that she is believable and that this type of behavior is completely unacceptable. There would be no way to make it acceptable. So I think they are diverting away from the main issue and trying to create an alternative reality, really," Deborah Peters said on CNN's "Erin Burnett OutFront."

(Snip)

Peters said she thought the senators' logic was a way to divert away from the main issue.

"I think they're saying -- I think they're saying, gee, she looks credible, but we can't really believe that the man we like would do this," Peters said. "So, therefore, it's not valid, you know, it's not valid that it was him, even though that type of memory does not get mistaken, does not go away."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/05/politics/christine-blasey-ford-manchin-collins-cnntv/index.html

Some things go beyond politics for me.

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 11:20 AM

9. it's not about his random votes on various issues. It's about CONTROL of the FUCKING SENATE!

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 12:47 PM

13. We need him as a member of the caucus

The Democratic coalition is very diverse from an ideological perspective. Manchin is to the right of me, but I would still would be happy for him to hold his seat as a dem.

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 04:39 PM

18. 50% voting with Dems is better than 0%.

The latter is what we'll get if he's replaced by a Republican.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 10:36 AM

3. I hope he stays right where he is

We can't afford to lose any Senators (Manchin is still better than what a Russiapublican from WV would be).

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 10:39 AM

4. As long he caucuses with Democrats

If it means the difference between Moscow Mitch and Chuck Schumer at the helm of the Senate, I would hope we would all agree that it is worth having Manchin in WV.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 11:10 AM

8. Jim Justice might as well change his name to Buford T. Justice

He's nothing but a corrupt, incompetent Jim Crower.

(with apologies to Jackie Gleason)



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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 11:54 AM

10. Stephen Smith-D, Populist Hopes To Challenge Repub. in 2020 Gov. Race

WV News, July 2019. Smith, who was born in Charleston but was raised in Texas, graduated from Harvard and went on to study at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

For the past six years Smith served as the executive director of the West Virginia Healthy Kids and Families Coalition where he oversaw anti-poverty initiatives, community improvement projects and efforts to expand health care coverage for children and families...
More, https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/stephen-smith-populist-candidate-hopes-to-challenge-republican-candidate-in/article_7f346c8f-b9f3-5a2e-bfd9-289440c1acaf.html

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 12:35 PM

11. How is the state legislature stacking up?

State Legislatures are where we deal with gerrymandering, since the Supremes have opted for "state's rights", or legal discrimination, rather than what is fair.

If he were governor, could he help control the blatant pro-republican gerrymandering that has occurred?

If the tsunami is as big as we hope, why can't down ballot offices be won by Dems, too.

Why can't the democrats come up with an acceptable substitute for Manchin, especially if it is for the 2020 election, when hopefully every turd hater will come out to vote? Could the state legislature become Dem?

That would be solving three problems at once. We need to go all in...

Just askin'.

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Response to not_the_one (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 08:42 PM

19. Simple

Trump is +16 in West Virginia: 54:38
Manchin is the only state level elected Democrat in the state (afaik)
No chance the state legislature becomes Dem in 2020
West Virginia's other senator (a Rep) is 62:25 (+37)

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Response to rpannier (Reply #19)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:53 PM

21. Thanks.

So we need Manchin as a dino...

If WV stays this red, and IF/AFTER Manchin is re-elected, it's time for a boycott. Yes, some will be negatively affected (they always are), but the only way the repubs learn is through their pocketbooks.

I know that is simplistic...

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Aug 31, 2019, 05:13 AM

23. will he resign from the senate to run?

Last edited Sat Aug 31, 2019, 06:57 AM - Edit history (1)

or would he only resign if he won? and would he appoint his replacement at least temporally?

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