New study says Trump could be in the lead on Election Night but lose by week's end

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Source: Boston Globe

Republican President Donald Trump leads strongly among those who say they are unlikely to vote by mail, while Democrat Joe Biden has a solid lead among voters overall, suggesting that results will shift toward Biden as mail-in votes are tallied after Election Day, a new national survey finds.

Trump leads, 68 percent to 23 percent, among those who say they are very unlikely to vote by mail. Biden, however, leads among all voters, 50 to 40 percent, according to a report on the survey released Friday by researchers from Northeastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University.

“There will therefore likely be enormous shifts toward Biden after election day,” David Lazer, a Northeastern University political science and computer science professor who worked on the report, said in an e-mail.

“The pattern of a shift toward Biden driven by mail-in voting is quite robust across the country. We anticipate a shift toward Biden in every state,” the report said.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-study-says-trump-could-be-in-the-lead-on-election-night-but-lose-by-weeks-end/ar-BB19RTpY?li=BBnb7Kz

[idziak4ever1234]

1. And thus the premise of numerous lawsuits trying to invalidate mail in ballots.

I pray Florida comes in for Biden on election night.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Nope...the red mirage as it was dubbed is nothing more than..... a mirage

Link to tweet

?s=21

Charlie Cook of Cook Political agrees as well

[idziak4ever1234]

5. I copied an pasted from a previous post down below.

What do you make of this? Should we be worried about crap like this:

Nearly 50,000 Franklin County Voters Received Incorrect Absentee Ballots

By GABE ROSENBERG • 3 HOURS AGO

The Franklin County Board of Elections has determined that 49,669 voters throughout the county received an incorrect absentee ballot this week – accounting for almost 21% of the ballots mailed out to voters.

In a press release Friday, the election board said it's started the process of printing and mailing replacement ballots to every voter who received the wrong ballot. Those ballots will be sent through the U.S. Postal Service within 72 hours.

"We want to make it clear that every voter who received an inaccurate ballot will receive a corrected ballot," the board said. "Stringent tracking measures are in place to guarantee that a voter can only cast one vote."

The election board also plans to mail informational postcards to all impacted voters telling them about the problem and what to do next. Voters can verify the information on their ballot here.

[jorgevlorgan]

14. People makes mistakes. Same thing happened in Los Angeles. Franklin County has been vigilant about

following up with voters to correct the mistake.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

43. Yeah, someone could have made the same mistake on election day

with the in person ballots too. The good thing about mail ins is they have some time correct mistakes.

[LisaL]

25. Franklin county screwed up, but they will resend those ballots within 3 days.

NT

[paleotn]

31. Bingo.

[Laelth]

3. Not buying this. The networks will call the election before 11 PM EST. n/t

-Laelth

[idziak4ever1234]

4. I sure hope you are right... Many of us, especially me, has PTSD from 2016.

[moonscape]

10. The nightmare when PA fell. Could not believe

it. I sobbed and had gastro issues for a week.

We knew it would be a nightmare, knew all the authoritarian warnings and leanings, but still - I clung to a naive idea that even a Repub congress wouldn't allow the destruction of rule of law that happened. I thought there would be a break, that congress would hang on to some semblance of reputation.

That we have descended to here was both predictable and incomprehensible.

[idziak4ever1234]

11. It was like a death.

[klook]

13. And this year will be like an escape from imprisonment. (nt)

[pfitz59]

18. I was at a Hillary party in Seattle election night, balloons and all

The place erupted in tears and sobs and screams when the election went to Trump. The woman I was standing next to, a stranger, buried her head in my chest and cried for ten minutes. We all knew what was coming. We all under-estimated the damage.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. No they will wait until polls close on the west coast at 11pm est/8pm pst nt

[Laelth]

8. Shortly after 11 PM EST, then. n/t

-Laelth

[PennyK]

7. Well, we did our part

We hand-delivered our ballots in our very red district of Florida this Wednesday! Florida counts them as they come in.

[kairos12]

19. Florida is so critical. If Florida goes for Biden the entire Trump balloon deflates.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. Seems to me it will be a problem only if a state says it won't *start* counting mailed ballots

until it has finished counting in-person votes. Because the 'tipping point' states they highlight - Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - don't start counting until the day, but don't accept mailed ballots after the day. So mailed ballots will still be able to be counted earlier than (by a few hours), or as soon as, the in-person ones.

[jorgevlorgan]

16. Most states, as I understand it, count the mail ballots first, BUT

might not report them until after the in-person count has been reported. But most ballots will begin being processed -and even PA republicans are looking into counting them up to 5 days before the election, which would speed things up dramatically there. If most ballots are opened and scanned and verified before election day, then the machine count shouldn't take too long to process.

[LisaL]

26. In Oh the ballots are scanned before the election.

They don't add the totals until the election day. But they will report those ballots even before in person votes are reported.

[jorgevlorgan]

32. Which really challenges the "red mirage" idea

If Biden wins Ohio, he will likely be leading the entire night due to how tilted Democratic those mail vote will be.

[LisaL]

35. It does.

If anything it's going to be "blue mirage." Democrats are voting early absentee and in person. Those numbers should be released first. Republicans are waiting for election day.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

39. In New Mexico all the mailed in and early voting ballots

are counted by Election Day, other than the later-arriving mailed in ballots. Those are the first numbers that are released when the polls close in NM. The day of election ballots get counted when the polls close and then are added to those already counted.

[Kablooie]

12. SCOTUS jumped in and decided Bush/Gore before the all votes were counted.

Gore actually won Florida but SCOTUS decided he had lost before the outcome was known.

Trump will be screaming for SCOTUS to decide long before all the votes are all counted.
Now with a conservative majority of 6-3 (Barret will certainly be one of them by then.) it seems likely that this could be a major threat for Biden.

[GulfCoast66]

45. Nope. There will not be a 700 vote difference.

And almost every state counts ballots on Election Day making it a moot point.

[Mr. Sparkle]

15. He and the republicans are going to do everything they can to keep mail in votes from been counted

They are going to pull every dirty trick in the book, as well of some news ones. I hope we're prepared , its going to get ugly.

[LakeArenal]

20. My opinion is Joe will win in a landslide so big,

ironically, it will be trump wanting mail-in counted.

It’s all conjecture for sure.

[Mr. Sparkle]

22. This election is very different than the past, because of the pandemic.

Mail in voting has sky-rocketed because no one wants to risk getting sick. Trump is acting like its win or bust and there's not much he wont do to keep power. But, i do hope your right!

[LakeArenal]

23. Try to meet ya back here Nov 4!!!!

[Mr. Sparkle]

48. I'll be here praying for another Karl Rove moment (2008 election night)

[yaesu]

17. A new study shows we will be seeing a bunch of new studies coming out, the only thing that

matters is to vote, not worry about what may or may not happen.

[Roc2020]

21. I don't believe that one bit

Since this Covid health crisis and seeing Trump utter incompetence at handling it I always thought the election will be called for Biden and not even interrupt the 11p local news. And I would be willing to bet $500 on that.

[TimeToGo]

27. I think you are right or close

[Botany]

24. Ohio or Texas or Florida will go to Joe and that will be it.

They will be calling it by midnight.

[oldsoftie]

29. Trump losing election night ends everything.

And if he loses Fl Pa & Wi, its over.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

38. Yep. Either one of thos three will drive a stake through his heart.

[Turin_C3PO]

50. Heart?

[Hassin Bin Sober]

51. I should have said sludge pump.

[oldsoftie]

28. Which is why we all need to vote in person. Make the victory evident 11/4 AM

Just do it.

[paleotn]

30. In most states, isn't vote by mail are counted....

as soon as the polls open? It is here, so we have a 12+ hour head start in counting them. I'm not buying it.

[scipan]

46. This is how it works in virginia.

They can do everything except count before election day.

[rocktivity]

33. You mean, kind of like what happened to Hillary?

rocktivity

[still_one]

34. and Biden could lead on Election Day, and also on mail-in votes. The lines and turnout in those

critical swing are extremely heavy with long lines on early voting, and from all observation it appears more of us than them

[BainsBane]

36. some states count absentee ballots in advance

as long as they are in early. In MN there is a 14 day period prior to the election when they count all the early and absentee ballots. Now the ones that come in after election day are counted latter, but people shouldn't allow that to happen. You need to mail or drop off your ballots right away. Other states count them all after the fact, and then the article's conclusions hold.

[Yellowdog88]

37. Not even close

"Precincts reporting."

To me, that means completely. They will not partially report. When an urban area remains uncounted, media calls wait for the reporting to catch up to their exit polling.

Same for rural votes, which can also be late in tabulating.

Despite this fear, ballots just need to be removed from envelopes on election day and prepped for tabulations. They will run them with the others in most locations. The media will not have data that shows Trump "ahead" at any point.


The race will be called by 1am Eastern. Period.

And then the post election shitshow will begin.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

40. I wonder how many of them will be well enough or even still alive

to vote on November 3?

[ProfessorGAC]

41. Not Buying It

Many(!) states allow counting of mailed ballots well before election day. The numbers just can't be posted until 11/3.
That's a person in the county office logging on and entering a couple dozen values into the tabulation.
The lag in mailed votes is greatly overstated in many of these articles.
And, for it to carry out to end of week suggests a nip & tuck race in every battleground state, not supported by current polling data.
This is more "scary horserace" stuff on which the media thrives.

[UCmeNdc]

42. Nov 3rd GOTV in PA. Win in Pennsylvania and say goodbye to Donald Corruption Trump!

Organize a massive GOTV in PA on Nov 3rd. Overwhelm Trump's GOTV efforts there.

[Maeve]

44. Nope, not going to happen

Too many states start counting mail-ins at the start of election day, if not before, and people are getting the ballots in early. Early in-person voting argues against this scenario, too.

Too many in the media want this to be a horse-race, edge-of-your-seat affair--- but it's going to be a blow-out for Biden.

[scipan]

47. Not sure if this is right, but just in case,

Don't freak out on election night.
Patience, grasshopper.

[JCMach1]

49. Laughable... 1932 size landslide is coming

We will only be quibbling whether it was 15, or 18%