Biden Opens Up Huge Lead Nationally

[brooklynite]

Source: Political Wire

A new Public Religion Research Institute poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally by 14 percentage points, 54% to 40%, if voter turnout looks similar to 2016.

However, if voter turnout is higher (70% turnout), as multiple indicators suggest is likely, Biden leads Trump by 18 percentage points, 56% to 38%.


Read more: https://politicalwire.com/2020/10/19/biden-opens-up-huge-lead-nationally/

[lastlib]

1. I HOPE it translates into VOTES!!!

I want a beat-down for the ages!

[Inablueway]

2. I second that emotion

[calimary]

15. Third!

[Boomer]

7. This. n/t

[Auggie]

14. So do all of us

[callous taoboy]

36. Eggs Ackley!

[lagomorph777]

3. 14 to 18 points!!!

Holy crap!

[VMA131Marine]

4. For those doing the math ...

An 18% Biden win in the popular vote with 70% turnout would translate to a margin of ~25 million votes. It would be about the same % margin that Reagan beat Mondale by in 1984 (58.8% to 40.6%), but that election only had 53% turnout and the winning popular vote margin was 17 million votes. Mondale, as you will recall, won 13 EVs from his home state of Minnesota and DC. I would guess that one of the reasons for the low turnout was Dems staying home because it was obvious before the election that Mondale was going to lose badly. It’s telling how polarised the country has become that, even if Biden wins the popular vote by 18%, Trump would still probably get well over 100 EVs and win at least 10 states.

[rpannier]

6. Trump wll definitely get at least 17 states

And probably somewhere between 150-200 evs

[SunnyATT]

34. I agree!

Trump will get at least 17 and perhaps as many as 22 states. He can win Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and North Carolina and still lose; but if he loses either Florida or Pennsylvania the fat lady sings and it's all over!

[Vivienne235729]

61. According to 538, all Biden needs is to win by a margin of 7% or 8% to

Have a 99% chance of taking the EC.

[Norbert]

5. We may see the bandwagon effect take hold

if these numbers are at the same level two weeks from now. I would love to see people voting for Biden/Harris because they want to vote for a winner. I hope Biden will have coattails effect for the down ballot races too.

[Silver Gaia]

8. THIS

is what I want to see.

[kiri]

46. still dangerous territory

We have no inkling of how voter suppression will succeed. There is the 70,000 "trump Army" out there to do intimidation, poll watching, now burning ballot collection boxes. And national polls matter nothing--it is all to do in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida. Altho some optimists report Biden ahead marginally, it is pretty iffy for the Electoral College and rethug tricks and legal filings up the wazoo coming up.

Gore lost in 2000. This could happen again.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

47. Burning ballot collection boxes?

I've missed that story.

[Lock him up.]

52. Here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142607913

For 1.

[Scurrilous]

9. K&R

[gab13by13]

10. Someone correct me if I'm wrong about this,

but I remember 538 saying a 7 point lead relates to a 93% chance of victory.

[beachbumbob]

11. pretty much, yep

[Lasher]

19. 538 now gives Biden a 10.5 point advantage

I don't know how this equates to Biden's % chance of victory, but feel free to extrapolate like the wind!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[Lucky Luciano]

30. Probably if tge election were held today.

Since it is not, the odds can change between now and Election Day thus costing Biden a few percentage points in the odds.

[quakerboy]

54. Or gaining

The R's are not doing themselves many favors right now in any arena of public discourse

[Lucky Luciano]

55. Traditionally, races tighten as Election Day approaches.

[quakerboy]

60. Traditionally

We dont vote during covid.
We dont vote in massive recordbreaking early votes
We dont (hopefully) break turnout records
We dont vote when one of the candidates is so bad that he has literally put our country in a position to fail.

Hopefully most Americans understand there is nothing traditional about this election

[IronLionZion]

12. Dems polling well for the Senate too

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

Dems have improved recently in many close races.

[calimary]

16. THIS is what matters, BIGTIME.

MASSIVELY important. If Biden’s going to succeed, he has to have a Senate that’s got his back.

[Sherman A1]

20. Agreed

We need the Senate.

[KS Toronado]

22. Absolutely, without the senate, repugs will block everything for political reasons.

I pray McTurtle loses reelection.

[calimary]

51. THAT would be a Thing of Beauty!

And if he takes Lindsey with him that'd be even better!

[bucolic_frolic]

13. I'm liking the sausage you're making this morning

The Biden campaign is a juggernaut, even more so then Obama. Obama campaign answered every charge within 24 hours and seeded the media with messages for the next few days. Biden campaign has held its powder and is now accelerating into a short 2 week home stretch. They may have the magic to drive Trump's numbers into the 30s. Joe's speeches and messaging are controlled, firm, unambiguous, politically polite, and in Trump's face. A standard Biden tecnhique seems to be throwing issues and words back at the opposition without ever mentioning Trump's name. How did he close in NC Sunday? 'science over fiction, and we choose truth over lies'.
That is devastating. And perhaps most of all, Joe Biden seems to be enjoying it. He is the real deal.

[Cosmocat]

24. He is is such a groove

He was about my fourth choice or so, but I told people at the outset he would have appeal and defended him all along.

But, he is in a place I never imagined.

Incredible clarity, calm, confidence and decency.

Been touched by god.

[bucolic_frolic]

26. I wonder about the campaign personnel

It's one thing to run like Obama, and select good people. It's another to manage them well. Is the Biden operation his long term staff, or upper level consultants? Maybe they ran Obama's campaigns? Joe was VP after all. This time it's like there's better synergy, he's like Obama with more spine. The aviator sunglasses and signature '70s sideburns are iconic images. The ties, from what I've seen, are blue or black, and white stripes. It all echoes an earlier halcyon era, almost like FDR's cigarette holder and black 1900 top hat. This campaign was put together by very smart guys!

[Cosmocat]

49. YEP - do you see the LP Blind Big ad?

I know LP is not his campaign, but when you have 77 year old Joe Biden completely fitting in to an add jamming the Beastie Boys Sabotage ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=SW86jyTsYe4&fbclid=IwAR1BoSV9xJ2b42ULWEOEdpkfYdIK_JSNImCHyg7eHXWBCv-X47W4aKtMBj4&app=desktop

[Johnny2X2X]

17. This is an A/B rated pollster

So it's a valid data point to me. Poll average is almost 11, that's where Biden probably is right now.

[scipan]

40. Thank you. That was my first question.

Amazing. Could be an outlier though. I'll wait for the next polls.

[PatrickforO]

18. If, God willing, this is the case, then Biden and Harris won't just win.

They will have a



from the American people!!!

[roamer65]

43. Yes a mandate for true CHANGE.

It will be a mandate for getting rid of the filibuster, adjusting the size of the SC, decriminalized MJ, safe and legal abortion...

[UncleNoel]

21. 56 to 38 - like the sound of that...

Now to the polls for the real votes for a Democratic Tsunami.

[AZizzy]

23. Consequences of the 84 election cited above

Think of how many down-ballot democrats who had a decent chance of winning did not win because so many Dems stayed home. Every election cycle has to be a full court press. School board members become municipal officials become state legislators become congressional reps. My entire adult life I’ve seen us cheat ourselves of quality candidates at every level.

[NoRoadUntravelled]

25. I'm holding good thoughts for a landslide victory for Joe Biden.

An avalanche of sanity.

[JDC]

27. Vote! Eom.

[TexasBushwhacker]

28. That's great, but as we saw in 2016

Nationwide doesn't matter. Thanks to the Electoral College, our president is chosen by swing voters in swing states.

[Turin_C3PO]

35. Statistically,

if Biden is ahead nationally by more than 4 points, it’s a very, very, small chance that he loses the electoral college. It’s possible but very unlikely.

[TexasBushwhacker]

45. I just hope he wins by a large margin in most of the swing states

[NorthOf270]

62. The tide raises all ships.

[Botany]

29. Frank Luntz: "The more Trump talks the more voters he loses." rough quote

Trump is not picking up any new voters but he is now steadily bleeding people
who voted for him in 2016.

His Shit Show/Bund Rally yesterday in Nevada might play with his base but it doesn't
get him any new voters and it chased away some a lot of his prior voters.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214312773

According to one of my late father's friends, a political scientist, Trump has a 25 to 30%
base that will never leave him. He has told them it is OK to use the n****r word again.

Farmers who have had to plow their crops under because Trump lost China as a market
who once were a reliable voting block some of them are voting Biden or not all, seniors in
Florida & Arizona who are trapped in their houses because of the virus are not voting Trump,
people who have lost their jobs are not voting Trump in 2020, suburban white college educated
women who voted 55% for Trump are done with him, and African Americans are going to vote
for Biden and Harris in as big or larger #s then they did for Obama in 2008 & 2012.

[SWBTATTReg]

31. I can't wait to stomp trump's a&&. I'm going to damn well make sure that all of my friends get out

and vote this thug out of office, and for those that are still supporting trump and his sick ways, I can't wait to throw this into their damn faces, being that they've throwing this in my damn face for far too long, and being gleeful about it too.

And did you see the remarks about trump moaning about Biden using 'science'?

What a moron. And how did trump, as dumb as he is, ever hang onto his money inherited from his daddy? I kind of suspected that trump is bankrupt, and now even more so, I suspect very strongly that he is indeed bankrupt (at least he is bankrupt morally).

[BobTheSubgenius]

32. I feel like I'm dreaming.

These numbers are fantastic, in more ways than one. The most obvious, of course: a harbinger of Blue Tsunami. The other is that, the larger the margin of victory the smaller the cover for literally stealing the election, andor claims of voter fraud.

I'm just picking a number out of the air, and it may be inflated,(I HOPE not) but who could claim a win when they're on the downside of an 8 million vote loss? I don't think that's an impossible goal at all.

[gab13by13]

33. I also look at Vegas odds,

I know you're not allowed to bet on politics in the US but Vegas has Biden winning. I also checked overseas where you are allowed to bet and Biden is the odds on favorite there too.

Money talks.

[paleotn]

37. Vote, damn it! Vote!

Vote like the election hinges on YOU!

[joewicker_TX]

38. I never underestimate the tRump crowd...

I hope everyone is going into this like Biden is down by 10.... complacency handed us this national nightmare to begin with.

VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT

[Lock him up.]

53. VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT because IT DOES.

Because Justice Matters. Because if you have kids, their future matter. Their kids' future matter too!

[kairos12]

39. A 70% turnout would a Blue Wave of titanic size.

[safeinOhio]

41. The planets are lining up for Nov 3.

As we know Democratic voters are voting early by mail. That sets up a perfect storm for bad weather on that date in the Bible Belt.

[roamer65]

42. 1984 style landslide?

God I hope so... lol

[Ligyron]

48. Ah hell, let's go for a 20 point margin.

We want Dump to experience the agony of an historic ass whoopin' the likes of which have not been seen since Reagan. It's been raining like a hurricane here today in Palm Beach County as the first day of early voting is in progress which will continue until Sunday, Nov 1st.

I Don't know how that effects either candidate's total today but there were an awful lot of people lined up early way before the polls and the heavens opened up. It's stopped now and there will be plenty of other days and chances to vote here in Dump's new home town where he's going to lose hugly to Biden even here locally.

[BlueWavePsych]

50. Take nothing for granted. GOTV

Vote 'em all out.

[samsingh]

56. send a message to foreign adversaries

We need to unite behind Biden, the candidate who loves America. This will send a message to the world that America comes first. Make traitor trump lose by over 25 points and hundreds of EVs. This will let the world know not to mess with the US.

[Earthshine2]

57. The down-ballet needs the extra votes.

It's not enough for Joe to win. We need to win everything from local dog catcher to senator.

[Tommymac]

59. This. nt

[MarianJack]

58. Superb news, but...

...remember Tom Dewey and the fact that we have a news media that Would be all to happy to equate Dolt45 to Harry Truman.

#notmypresident

RESIST