New Republican poll shows statistical tie in Georgia

[AKing]

Source: Axios.com

The Democratic and Republican Senate candidates in Georgia are in a statistical tie heading into Tuesday's pair of runoff elections, according to a new poll conducted for a Republican super PAC.

Why it matters: In both elections, Democrats pulled ahead in early voting, putting pressure on Republicans to increase their turnout on Election Day to catch up. The tie poll suggests a jump ball in the races between Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler and Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

By the numbers: The Preserve America poll, conducted by Adam Geller, surveyed 500 likely voters over the weekend and included both cellphones and landlines. The survey had a margin of error of ±4.38 percentage points.

Perdue had 45% of the vote to Ossoff's 46%.
Loeffler also had 45% to Warnock's 46%.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/republican-poll-shows-statistical-tie-in-georgia-7c817124-5c12-40a5-a170-2db1bd105209.html

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Could it be that Perdue and Loffler are farther behind and this is just an attempt to stir up turnout?

[Thekaspervote]

1. Conducted by a republican super pac.. no more need be said

[Blue Owl]

2. Trying to set up a steal, I would suspect

With the GOP, it's always winning by 'just enough'...

[regnaD kciN]

3. Let's be blunt...

...the margin of error in practically every poll is 4.5% or so. If a poll is showing a "dead heat," or even a small lead for any candidate, it means that either one could win, and the poll will still have been "accurate," unless the result is a blowout.

We really need to stop relying on polls in close races, because the unavoidable degree of uncertaintly means the result is essentially .

[Turin_C3PO]

13. It's all about turnout.

Both races could go either way.

[sdfernando]

4. With so many newly registered voters and so many registered voters

that sat out the Presidential election but are voting in this special election, I don't see how a LV poll could be anywhere near accurate.

[rocktivity]

5. Wouldn't surprise me in the least -- I've long since learned to ignore polls

Last edited Tue Jan 5, 2021, 12:20 AM - Edit history (2)

that have fewer than 750 respondents and a margin of error exceeding 3%.




rocktivity

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Def an attempt to stir Republican turnout

I wouldn't read anything other than that into it. They want to convince their voters that their vote could be the tipping point.

We'll probably be counting and recounting and litigating for days if not 2 weeks.

[SergeStorms]

7. Polls schmolls....

I'll never believe another poll again as long as I live. The last poll from Kentucky before the election had Amy McGrath down 2 points to Mitch McConnell.

[DrToast]

8. 45% to 46% is not a statistical tie, Axios

46% to 46% is a statistical tie.

[Polybius]

11. 46% to 46% would be an actual tie

Statistical just means within the margin of error.

[DrToast]

12. There is no such thing as a statistical tie

...the way they're using it.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2012/10/03/no-such-thing-as-a-statistical-tie/

Link to tweet

[Polybius]

15. "Statistical tie" has been used for years, it just means it's within the MOE

I'm surprised that you didn't know that, it's pretty common knowledge.

[DrToast]

20. Lots of incorrect things have been used for years

That doesn't mean we should expect better from news organizations.

[pnwmom]

25. It does a better job of conveying the inexact nature of polls than the term "tie." n/t

[pnwmom]

19. A statistical tie means that it the numbers are within the margin of error

for the particular poll; so, yes, this is a statistical tie.

[DrToast]

21. If one person is more likely to be ahead...

...why on earth would you call it a statistical tie?

[pnwmom]

24. Because that is a term pollsters and reporters use to describe a race that is "too close to call."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

From Pew:

News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s lead is greater than what we would expect from sampling error, or that a race is “a statistical tie” if it’s too close to call. It is not enough for one candidate to be ahead by more than the margin of error that is reported for individual candidates (i.e., ahead by more than 3 points, in our example). To determine whether or not the race is too close to call, we need to calculate a new margin of error for the difference between the two candidates’ levels of support. The size of this margin is generally about twice that of the margin for an individual candidate. The larger margin of error is due to the fact that if the Republican share is too high by chance, it follows that the Democratic share is likely too low, and vice versa.

[TomCADem]

10. You Have To Give Republicans The Edge Because They Think Trump Is Racist God

...and while I think Democrats strongly believe in their cause and will turnout, this is not exactly a religious experience, but an act of political expression for most folks. Indeed, every crime that Trump commits is just another chance for Republicans to demonstrate their faith and willingness to sacrifice so that they can enter the racist paradise that he promises. Can you imagine if David Koresh had a multi-billion media companies competing to be his propaganda outlet of choice?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/25/rick-perry-trump-gods-chosen-one/4295185002/

'God's used imperfect people all through history': Perry shares why he thinks Trump is the 'chosen one'


Energy Secretary Rick Perry said in an interview that he told President Donald Trump that he was God's "chosen one" to lead the United States, just as he chose the kings to lead Israel in the Old Testament.

Perry, who will reportedly soon be leaving the Cabinet, explained that nothing in the universe is accidental and that God "is still very active in the details of the day-to-day lives of government."

"Barack Obama didn't get to be the president of the United States without being ordained by God. Neither did Donald Trump," he said in a Fox News interview that aired Sunday, adding that God has used "individuals who aren't perfect all through history."

"King David wasn't perfect. Saul wasn't perfect. Solomon wasn't perfect. And I actually gave the president a little one-pager on those Old Testament kings about a month ago," Perry said.

[turbinetree]

14. 500 voters................for the model........

[appmanga]

16. There's a huge flaw in these polls...

...and it had to do with phone numbers being ported. I personally know of former Georgia voters getting called for polls even though they no longer live in Georgia. Say four of those people answer in a small sample like this. That skews the results before any concerns about people lying for other reasons. Why would someone who can't vote answer one of these polls? They make think they're being helpful (or hurtful), but no one can discount this happens.

The only poll that counts take place on Election Day. Vote.

[TomCADem]

18. GOP winning the Georgia ad war as Dems shift money to ground game

I think Republicans probably do have an advantage, though Warnoff and Ossoff are doing great despite the fact that they are not getting billionaires throwing millions dollar at them. I contributed them, because if it is a longshot, you can't just ignore the fact that Perdue and Loeffler are corrupt and are supporting a criminal who is trying to undermine our Democracy. You can't just choose to contribute or fight in those situations where you are the heavy favorite. The crooks are the incumbents and they are getting millions of dollars in support from their cronies, so yes they will have a huge advantage in this election. The fact that Ossoff and Warnock have a chance is a testament to the grassroots efforts of Democrats throughout Georgia.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/20/gop-georgia-ad-war-democrats-448526

Democrats are getting out-advertised in the Georgia Senate runoffs thanks to a megadonor-funded blitz from GOP super PACs in the races that will decide control of the Senate.

Republicans hold an overall advertising advantage across the state, largely fueled by $86 million in outside spending supporting their candidates, compared to just $30 million spent by Democratic outside groups on TV advertising so far, according to AdImpact. Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are hauling in record small-dollar cash, far ahead of GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler — but not enough to own the airwaves.

Super PACs pay more per ad than candidates do, so Ossoff and Warnock have been able to blunt the GOP’s financial edge, especially in the Atlanta media market, where nearly two-thirds of people in the state reside. But GOP TV ads are running in much higher rotation in other markets, according to data from AdImpact, and the disparity has sparked concern among Democrats that the two campaigns aren’t getting enough help with control of the Senate on the line.

Interviews with a dozen Democratic strategists and donors outlined several key reasons why Republicans have been able to build an advertising advantage. There’s fatigue among Democrats’ biggest donors after pouring millions into the 2020 general election, as well as mild skepticism that Ossoff and Warnock can actually win.

[Renew Deal]

17. Rachel talked tonight about how special eleciton polling is generally bad, especially over

the holidays.

[Happy Hoosier]

23. Yeah, and it's probably worse this year.

Polling depends HEAVILY upon turnout models and NO ONE has any idea what the turnout will be. And especially in this election, small errors can translate into large outcome differences.

[Happy Hoosier]

22. I HATE the term "statistical tie" It's not really accurate.

The poll shows both Ossof and Warnock with leads within the margin of error. The error distribution is not flat. It's a Guassian distribution. Which means that the leads showing are meaningful. Not determinative, but meaningful.