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Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:44 AM

New poll: Support for Newsom recall grows, Elder increases lead as replacement

Source: KRON

SACRAMENTO (INSIDE CALIFORNIA POLITICS) ó An exclusive Inside California Politics / Emerson College poll found that support for the recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom is increasing.

The new statewide poll of 1,000 registered voters, which has a margin of error of of +/- 3%, showed that the recall effort gained traction since last month, with a near tie between voting to keep and voting to recall.

The race has tightened with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% of voters against his recall. The recall effort gained support by three percentage points since a July 22 Inside California Politics / Emerson College poll, the gain coming from voters who previously said they were undecided.

Last monthís poll showed 9% of voters were undecided and the vote to recall was at 43%.

Read more: https://www.kron4.com/news/politics/inside-california-politics/new-poll-support-for-newsom-recall-grows-elder-increases-lead-as-replacement/



Like clockwork, we are suddenly blitz of ads, right wing segments, and a social media campaign attacking Newsom from the right and left using the same "liberal elite" talking points. "What about the emails?" has been replaced with "Remember the French Laundry!"

Never mind that the recall was driven and underwritten by Trump supporters. The fact of the matter is that Republicans cannot win a campaign on the issues. So, there are running a smear campaign complete with sock puppets in social media pushing right wing talking points without discussing the merits of the candidates. Likewise, we are seeing so-called "progressives" minimizing the impact of a recall, because we have the courts and the Legislature as a backstop.

Where have seen this playbook before? The question of whether Newsom should be recalled is not one in the abstract. The issue whether you want to vote for Newsom or a right wing alternative such as Elder/Cox/Jenner who will do their best to fan election conspiracies, push vaccine conspiracies, and deny the reality of global warming? We have seen the consequences of even one term with a right wing extremist as an elected, because with a recall, the replacement candidate just needs a plurality to win.

So, the choice is a Democratic governor who has done as good a job as any Governor of a large state during the pandemic versus a science denying right wing extremist who roll measures designed to save Californian lives.

Which candidate would you vote for to replace Gov. Newsom if he is recalled?

Larry Elder: 23%
John Cox: 7%
Caitlyn Jenner: 7%
Kevin Kiley: 5%
Kevin Faulconer: 4%
Kevin Paffrath: 1%
Someone Else: 14%
Undecided: 40%


https://abc7news.com/larry-elder-gop-recall-candidates-wildfires/10923239/

California recall candidate Larry Elder 'not sure' climate change is reason for state's wildfires

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Conservative talk show host Larry Elder is currently leading the pack of Republicans hoping to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in California's recall election.

A new poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that among voters most likely to participate in the recall, Elder has the most support, followed by San Diego businessman John Cox, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer and Assemblymember Kevin Kiley.

In an interview with ABC7 News this weekend, Elder made his pitch for governor, gave his position on vaccine and mask mandates (he's opposed to both) and addressed climate change and its impact in California.

According to a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, 63% of Californians are very concerned about climate change, especially around the increasing severity of wildfires and drought.

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Reply New poll: Support for Newsom recall grows, Elder increases lead as replacement (Original post)
TomCADem Aug 4 OP
Mz Pip Aug 4 #1
JohnSJ Aug 4 #3
PortTack Aug 4 #5
JohnSJ Aug 4 #7
ancianita Aug 4 #21
LeftInTX Aug 4 #24
reACTIONary Aug 4 #18
AllaN01Bear Aug 4 #20
Mz Pip Aug 4 #23
LeftInTX Aug 4 #25
JohnSJ Aug 4 #26
The Mouth Aug 4 #27
Initech Aug 4 #2
SunSeeker Aug 4 #4
JohnSJ Aug 4 #6
SunSeeker Aug 4 #8
JohnSJ Aug 4 #12
SunSeeker Aug 4 #31
CousinIT Aug 4 #13
quaint Aug 4 #29
VMA131Marine Aug 4 #9
bamagal62 Aug 4 #10
ancianita Aug 4 #22
roamer65 Aug 4 #11
jml510 Aug 7 #32
The Unmitigated Gall Aug 4 #14
seta1950 Aug 4 #15
Lovie777 Aug 4 #16
Rollo Aug 4 #17
JohnSJ Aug 4 #19
BradAllison Aug 4 #28
TomCADem Aug 4 #30
ripcord Aug 7 #33

Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:47 AM

1. Democrats better show up.

Newsom could lose this. Republicans will show up.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:56 AM

3. All registered voters get a mail in ballot here in California, postage paid. All they need to do is

fill it out and put it in the mail

In other words there is no excuse

I also am very skeptical of these polls, since they seem to be less and less reliable

They said the change came from the same undecided voters. Are they polling the same group of people?

It also said that the 54% of California Hispanics were in favor of the recall, and I say bullshit to that

Something doesnít smell right, and that the most extreme right winger would be their prime choice

Either the sampling is screwed up or someone is lying to the poll taker





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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:10 AM

5. Very skeptical...just saw a poll yesterday that 36% of voters supported the recall

Dems make up 64-65% of the voting populous in CA. Dems arenít going to vote to recall him

Is this more msm hype? Tune in for updates? Seems like it might

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Response to PortTack (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:13 AM

7. I don't know, but something doesn't seem right here. As long as people vote we will win

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Response to PortTack (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 11:49 AM

21. You're right to be.

Follow the money (which is impossible for us but doable for legal forensic investigators) behind this recall and you'll see that this is dark money harassment of a Democratic governor.

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Response to PortTack (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:51 PM

24. My fear: A lot of people won't vote

They like Newsom and just assume they don't need to vote to keep him in office

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 08:15 AM

18. Here is the Emerson College Polling news release....

... with an overview of the methodology used:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/newsom-clings-to-lead-in-recall-while-crime-becomes-a-top-issue-for-ca-voters

The California Emerson College/Nexstar Media Group poll was conducted July 30-August 1, 2021. The sample consisted of California likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a pollís margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected via a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, a landline sample using IVR, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.


There are links on that page to a fuller explination.

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 09:35 AM

20. ditto.

is he another rich unexperianced grifter ?

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:03 PM

23. I got a notice yesterday

telling me my ballot was coming. Thereís no excuse not to vote. None.

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #23)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:51 PM

25. Lack of information....

Complacence

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Response to Mz Pip (Reply #23)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:27 PM

26. Exactly. California goes out of their way to make voting easy, and insure every vote is counted

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:44 PM

27. Elder has a show on AM Hate radio

also much more organization than any of the other loonies running.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:51 AM

2. Ugh... this is disturbing.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:07 AM

4. Fucking Republicans. We REALLY need to tighten California's recall process.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:10 AM

6. Every other state has a minimum of 25%, California has 11% signatures. This is also the third

attempt the repukes have tried to recall Newsom, and the only reason it got enough signatures this time is because a jackass judge extended the time to get signatures by three months


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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:18 AM

8. Yup. It's ridiculous and undemocratic.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:28 AM

12. It would be difficult for them to win going through a normal election, so they try the back door

Last edited Wed Aug 4, 2021, 06:33 PM - Edit history (1)

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #12)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 04:39 PM

31. Yup. Republicans lose in a far contest, every time. So they make it unfair. nt

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 02:18 AM

13. Seriously. Every time a Dem governor is elected out there, he is recalled. It's bullshit. n/t

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Response to CousinIT (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 03:09 PM

29. Only one governor has been recalled since 1913.

Since 1913, there have been 179 recall attempts of state elected officials in California. Eleven recall efforts collected enough signatures to qualify for the ballot and of those, the elected official was recalled in six instances. One recall effort is currently qualified for the ballot to be held on September 14, 2021.

CASOS

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:19 AM

9. It's ridiculous that ...

while Newsom could lose the recall vote by 49-51 and be ousted from office, his replacement could be elected with 23% (Elderís current level of support) of the vote.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:19 AM

10. I'm so sick all all of this.

If itís not Newsom itís Cuomo. And, although, I have to believe the women that spoke out against Cuomo, I still think it stinks to high heaven. There something wrong. Was someone set up?

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Response to bamagal62 (Reply #10)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 11:54 AM

22. Exactly. You're being made sick of this by design.

Sure as hell it's a setup and it's supposed to look mysteriously wrong. It's a dark money hype -- attack all Democratic governors and keep the party distracted so that the House gets further divided and demoralized.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:21 AM

11. This Elder moron will be your Bruce Rauner if he steals this recall farce, CA.

The one term puke POS that squatted in the Illinois governorís mansion for 4 years. Constant battles with the Democratic controlled state legislature.

The same woes will beset CA.

At least you will have veto proof majorities to constantly override his vetoes, if the unthinkable happens.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #11)

Sat Aug 7, 2021, 03:10 AM

32. The main thing

that worries me about having a Repub governor is that s/he would be able to replace Feinstein with a Repub if something were to happen to her as far as her health is concerned.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 02:21 AM

14. I'll be voting, like a bastard with bells on...

But if somehow this fuck Elder wins, Iíd like to see the CA legislature strip the governorship of itís powers. Taste of their own puketard medicine.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 02:28 AM

15. Heaven forbid

A conservative for governor 😤😤😤 weíd go back decades😳😳😳

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 06:54 AM

16. Majority of the republicans are unconcerned about climate change ....

majority of Democrats know it's real.

My opinion, Newsom will not be recalled.

Elders is a typical evil republican.

Majority of Californians support Newsom regarding COVID-19 safety procedures. Our economy is coming back.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 07:04 AM

17. If Newsom wins the recall vote...

I would not be surprised if the Trumpers then launch a major effort to invalidate the results.

They'll probably say it was "rigged".

Where have we heard that before?

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Response to Rollo (Reply #17)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 08:38 AM

19. They won't get away from it here in California

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Response to Rollo (Reply #17)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 02:57 PM

28. They will not get anywhere.

It's not an idiot state like AZ.

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Response to Rollo (Reply #17)

Wed Aug 4, 2021, 03:30 PM

30. ...we need to change this screwed up recall process...

Öthat allows a very small, well funded percentage of the electorate to trigger a an off cycle special election where only a fraction of voters will vote. Worse, because a replacement candidate only needs a plurality, the process rewards extremists who can distinguish themselves from mainstream candidates.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 7, 2021, 11:03 PM

33. There are Democrats that aren't happy with Newsom

For some reason they are blaming him for the past 14 months.

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