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TomCADem

(17,387 posts)
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:44 AM Aug 2021

New poll: Support for Newsom recall grows, Elder increases lead as replacement

Source: KRON

SACRAMENTO (INSIDE CALIFORNIA POLITICS) — An exclusive Inside California Politics / Emerson College poll found that support for the recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom is increasing.

The new statewide poll of 1,000 registered voters, which has a margin of error of of +/- 3%, showed that the recall effort gained traction since last month, with a near tie between voting to keep and voting to recall.

The race has tightened with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% of voters against his recall. The recall effort gained support by three percentage points since a July 22 Inside California Politics / Emerson College poll, the gain coming from voters who previously said they were undecided.

Last month’s poll showed 9% of voters were undecided and the vote to recall was at 43%.

Read more: https://www.kron4.com/news/politics/inside-california-politics/new-poll-support-for-newsom-recall-grows-elder-increases-lead-as-replacement/



Like clockwork, we are suddenly blitz of ads, right wing segments, and a social media campaign attacking Newsom from the right and left using the same "liberal elite" talking points. "What about the emails?" has been replaced with "Remember the French Laundry!"

Never mind that the recall was driven and underwritten by Trump supporters. The fact of the matter is that Republicans cannot win a campaign on the issues. So, there are running a smear campaign complete with sock puppets in social media pushing right wing talking points without discussing the merits of the candidates. Likewise, we are seeing so-called "progressives" minimizing the impact of a recall, because we have the courts and the Legislature as a backstop.

Where have seen this playbook before? The question of whether Newsom should be recalled is not one in the abstract. The issue whether you want to vote for Newsom or a right wing alternative such as Elder/Cox/Jenner who will do their best to fan election conspiracies, push vaccine conspiracies, and deny the reality of global warming? We have seen the consequences of even one term with a right wing extremist as an elected, because with a recall, the replacement candidate just needs a plurality to win.

So, the choice is a Democratic governor who has done as good a job as any Governor of a large state during the pandemic versus a science denying right wing extremist who roll measures designed to save Californian lives.

Which candidate would you vote for to replace Gov. Newsom if he is recalled?

Larry Elder: 23%
John Cox: 7%
Caitlyn Jenner: 7%
Kevin Kiley: 5%
Kevin Faulconer: 4%
Kevin Paffrath: 1%
Someone Else: 14%
Undecided: 40%


https://abc7news.com/larry-elder-gop-recall-candidates-wildfires/10923239/

California recall candidate Larry Elder 'not sure' climate change is reason for state's wildfires

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Conservative talk show host Larry Elder is currently leading the pack of Republicans hoping to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in California's recall election.

A new poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that among voters most likely to participate in the recall, Elder has the most support, followed by San Diego businessman John Cox, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer and Assemblymember Kevin Kiley.

In an interview with ABC7 News this weekend, Elder made his pitch for governor, gave his position on vaccine and mask mandates (he's opposed to both) and addressed climate change and its impact in California.

According to a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, 63% of Californians are very concerned about climate change, especially around the increasing severity of wildfires and drought.

33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
New poll: Support for Newsom recall grows, Elder increases lead as replacement (Original Post) TomCADem Aug 2021 OP
Democrats better show up. Mz Pip Aug 2021 #1
All registered voters get a mail in ballot here in California, postage paid. All they need to do is JohnSJ Aug 2021 #3
Very skeptical...just saw a poll yesterday that 36% of voters supported the recall PortTack Aug 2021 #5
I don't know, but something doesn't seem right here. As long as people vote we will win JohnSJ Aug 2021 #7
You're right to be. ancianita Aug 2021 #21
My fear: A lot of people won't vote LeftInTX Aug 2021 #24
Here is the Emerson College Polling news release.... reACTIONary Aug 2021 #18
ditto. AllaN01Bear Aug 2021 #20
I got a notice yesterday Mz Pip Aug 2021 #23
Lack of information.... LeftInTX Aug 2021 #25
Exactly. California goes out of their way to make voting easy, and insure every vote is counted JohnSJ Aug 2021 #26
Elder has a show on AM Hate radio The Mouth Aug 2021 #27
Ugh... this is disturbing. Initech Aug 2021 #2
Fucking Republicans. We REALLY need to tighten California's recall process. SunSeeker Aug 2021 #4
Every other state has a minimum of 25%, California has 11% signatures. This is also the third JohnSJ Aug 2021 #6
Yup. It's ridiculous and undemocratic. SunSeeker Aug 2021 #8
It would be difficult for them to win going through a normal election, so they try the back door JohnSJ Aug 2021 #12
Yup. Republicans lose in a far contest, every time. So they make it unfair. nt SunSeeker Aug 2021 #31
Seriously. Every time a Dem governor is elected out there, he is recalled. It's bullshit. n/t CousinIT Aug 2021 #13
Only one governor has been recalled since 1913. quaint Aug 2021 #29
It's ridiculous that ... VMA131Marine Aug 2021 #9
I'm so sick all all of this. bamagal62 Aug 2021 #10
Exactly. You're being made sick of this by design. ancianita Aug 2021 #22
This Elder moron will be your Bruce Rauner if he steals this recall farce, CA. roamer65 Aug 2021 #11
The main thing jml510 Aug 2021 #32
I'll be voting, like a bastard with bells on... The Unmitigated Gall Aug 2021 #14
Heaven forbid seta1950 Aug 2021 #15
Majority of the republicans are unconcerned about climate change .... Lovie777 Aug 2021 #16
If Newsom wins the recall vote... Rollo Aug 2021 #17
They won't get away from it here in California JohnSJ Aug 2021 #19
They will not get anywhere. BradAllison Aug 2021 #28
...we need to change this screwed up recall process... TomCADem Aug 2021 #30
There are Democrats that aren't happy with Newsom ripcord Aug 2021 #33

JohnSJ

(92,190 posts)
3. All registered voters get a mail in ballot here in California, postage paid. All they need to do is
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:56 AM
Aug 2021

fill it out and put it in the mail

In other words there is no excuse

I also am very skeptical of these polls, since they seem to be less and less reliable

They said the change came from the same undecided voters. Are they polling the same group of people?

It also said that the 54% of California Hispanics were in favor of the recall, and I say bullshit to that

Something doesn’t smell right, and that the most extreme right winger would be their prime choice

Either the sampling is screwed up or someone is lying to the poll taker





PortTack

(32,767 posts)
5. Very skeptical...just saw a poll yesterday that 36% of voters supported the recall
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:10 AM
Aug 2021

Dems make up 64-65% of the voting populous in CA. Dems aren’t going to vote to recall him

Is this more msm hype? Tune in for updates? Seems like it might

ancianita

(36,055 posts)
21. You're right to be.
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 11:49 AM
Aug 2021

Follow the money (which is impossible for us but doable for legal forensic investigators) behind this recall and you'll see that this is dark money harassment of a Democratic governor.

LeftInTX

(25,327 posts)
24. My fear: A lot of people won't vote
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:51 PM
Aug 2021

They like Newsom and just assume they don't need to vote to keep him in office

reACTIONary

(5,770 posts)
18. Here is the Emerson College Polling news release....
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 08:15 AM
Aug 2021

... with an overview of the methodology used:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/newsom-clings-to-lead-in-recall-while-crime-becomes-a-top-issue-for-ca-voters

The California Emerson College/Nexstar Media Group poll was conducted July 30-August 1, 2021. The sample consisted of California likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected via a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, a landline sample using IVR, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.


There are links on that page to a fuller explination.

Mz Pip

(27,445 posts)
23. I got a notice yesterday
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 12:03 PM
Aug 2021

telling me my ballot was coming. There’s no excuse not to vote. None.

The Mouth

(3,150 posts)
27. Elder has a show on AM Hate radio
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:44 PM
Aug 2021

also much more organization than any of the other loonies running.

JohnSJ

(92,190 posts)
6. Every other state has a minimum of 25%, California has 11% signatures. This is also the third
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:10 AM
Aug 2021

attempt the repukes have tried to recall Newsom, and the only reason it got enough signatures this time is because a jackass judge extended the time to get signatures by three months


JohnSJ

(92,190 posts)
12. It would be difficult for them to win going through a normal election, so they try the back door
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:28 AM
Aug 2021

Last edited Wed Aug 4, 2021, 06:33 PM - Edit history (1)

quaint

(2,563 posts)
29. Only one governor has been recalled since 1913.
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 03:09 PM
Aug 2021
Since 1913, there have been 179 recall attempts of state elected officials in California. Eleven recall efforts collected enough signatures to qualify for the ballot and of those, the elected official was recalled in six instances. One recall effort is currently qualified for the ballot to be held on September 14, 2021.

CASOS

VMA131Marine

(4,139 posts)
9. It's ridiculous that ...
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:19 AM
Aug 2021

while Newsom could lose the recall vote by 49-51 and be ousted from office, his replacement could be elected with 23% (Elder’s current level of support) of the vote.

bamagal62

(3,257 posts)
10. I'm so sick all all of this.
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:19 AM
Aug 2021

If it’s not Newsom it’s Cuomo. And, although, I have to believe the women that spoke out against Cuomo, I still think it stinks to high heaven. There something wrong. Was someone set up?

ancianita

(36,055 posts)
22. Exactly. You're being made sick of this by design.
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 11:54 AM
Aug 2021

Sure as hell it's a setup and it's supposed to look mysteriously wrong. It's a dark money hype -- attack all Democratic governors and keep the party distracted so that the House gets further divided and demoralized.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
11. This Elder moron will be your Bruce Rauner if he steals this recall farce, CA.
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 01:21 AM
Aug 2021

The one term puke POS that squatted in the Illinois governor’s mansion for 4 years. Constant battles with the Democratic controlled state legislature.

The same woes will beset CA.

At least you will have veto proof majorities to constantly override his vetoes, if the unthinkable happens.

jml510

(10,893 posts)
32. The main thing
Sat Aug 7, 2021, 03:10 AM
Aug 2021

that worries me about having a Repub governor is that s/he would be able to replace Feinstein with a Repub if something were to happen to her as far as her health is concerned.

The Unmitigated Gall

(3,812 posts)
14. I'll be voting, like a bastard with bells on...
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 02:21 AM
Aug 2021

But if somehow this fuck Elder wins, I’d like to see the CA legislature strip the governorship of it’s powers. Taste of their own puketard medicine.

Lovie777

(12,262 posts)
16. Majority of the republicans are unconcerned about climate change ....
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 06:54 AM
Aug 2021

majority of Democrats know it's real.

My opinion, Newsom will not be recalled.

Elders is a typical evil republican.

Majority of Californians support Newsom regarding COVID-19 safety procedures. Our economy is coming back.

Rollo

(2,559 posts)
17. If Newsom wins the recall vote...
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 07:04 AM
Aug 2021

I would not be surprised if the Trumpers then launch a major effort to invalidate the results.

They'll probably say it was "rigged".

Where have we heard that before?

TomCADem

(17,387 posts)
30. ...we need to change this screwed up recall process...
Wed Aug 4, 2021, 03:30 PM
Aug 2021

…that allows a very small, well funded percentage of the electorate to trigger a an off cycle special election where only a fraction of voters will vote. Worse, because a replacement candidate only needs a plurality, the process rewards extremists who can distinguish themselves from mainstream candidates.

ripcord

(5,396 posts)
33. There are Democrats that aren't happy with Newsom
Sat Aug 7, 2021, 11:03 PM
Aug 2021

For some reason they are blaming him for the past 14 months.

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