U.S. Inflation Reached 30-Year High in October

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Wed Nov 10, 2021, 02:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

ECONOMY * U.S. ECONOMY

U.S. Inflation Reached 30-Year High in October

Consumer-price index rose at 6.2% annual rate, while core index was up 4.6%

By Gwynn Guilford
https://twitter.com/sinoceros
[e-mail]
Updated Nov. 10, 2021 8:52 am ET

U.S. inflation hit a three-decade high in October--rising at a 6.2% annual rate--as pandemic-related supply shortages and continued strength in consumer demand continued to push up prices.

The Labor Department said the consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, increased at the fastest annual pace since 1990. Inflation also topped 5% for the fifth straight month.

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Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-october-2021-11636491959

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Edited, because The Wall Street Journal. knows what an annual rate is.

Please, CNBC, the increase was NOT 6.2% in October. It was 0.9%.

Here's the original post:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

ECONOMY

Consumer price index surges 6.2% in October, worse than expected and the highest since Decmber 1990

PUBLISHED WED, NOV 10 2021 8:31 AM EST UPDATED MOMENTS AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528

@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

Inflation across a broad swath of products that consumers buy every day was even worse than expected in October, hitting its highest point in more than 30 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, which is a basket of products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 6.2% from a year ago. That compared to the 5.9% Dow Jones estimate.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

-- -- -- -- -- --

Here are several placeholder articles:

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MARKET INSIDER

Consumer prices likely surged last month at their fastest pace in about 30 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/consumer-prices-likely-surged-last-month-at-their-fastest-pace-in-about-30-years.html

PUBLISHED TUE, NOV 9 2021 3:07 PM EST UPDATED TUE, NOV 9 2021 3:33 PM EST

Patti Domm

@IN/PATTI-DOMM-9224884/
https://linkedin.com/in/patti-domm-9224884/

@PATTIDOMM
https://twitter.com/pattidomm

KEY POINTS
--Economists expect the consumer price index rose 0.6% in October and 5.9% on a year-over-year basis, the most since 1990.
--The CPI is hotter than economists initially expected it would be, and they now see it staying elevated into next year.
--"What we're seeing is there's this second wave of inflation that appears more broad based, and it's also backed up with a sharp increase in wages," said one economist.

The consumer price index is expected to have risen nearly 6% in October, the most in three decades. Inflation could remain elevated into early next year, as rents and other costs continue to increase.

The Labor Department will report the latest CPI reading Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a jump of 0.6%, or a year-over-year gain of 5.9%. On a core basis, excluding food and energy, economists expect a gain of 0.4% or 4.3% year over year.

"There's a risk it could be even higher," Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said.

"We've got some unusual distortions with used car prices, airfares going up and hotel room rates rising," she added. "You could get some surge prices in services, at the same time you had a snapback in used car prices and new car prices also went up because demand went up with the flooding" from summer hurricanes.

Used car prices were a culprit behind rising inflation in the spring. They fell down in the summer and declined last month, but they could begin to rise again, Swonk said.

If the CPI reaches 5.9%, it would be the biggest year-over-year gain since December 1990. Consumer prices were 5.4% in September year over year.

{snip}

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Yahoo Finance
Stock market news live updates: Stock futures drift lower ahead of inflation data
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-10-2021-231156781.html

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Wed, November 10, 2021, 7:49 AM

Stock futures fell Wednesday to hold below record levels, with investors fixing their attention on a key inflation report due later in the morning.

Contracts on the S&P 500 dipped, extending declines after the index closed out its first session of losses following eight straight days of gains. The Dow and Nasdaq had each also ended the session lower to pause after a record-setting run-up.

One of the most closely watched reports due for release Wednesday morning will be the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. This report is expected to show consumer prices rose 5.9% in October compared to last year, accelerating from September's 5.4% year-over-year rate. If the report comes in as expected, it would represent the fastest annual rise in consumer inflation since 1990.

The staying power and magnitude of inflationary pressures has become a critical question for market participants, with companies across industries reporting rising input costs and price hikes in order to pass on these expenses and preserve margins. While third-quarter earnings results have showed that S&P 500 companies have largely been able to navigate these cost pressures, the possibility remains that lasting inflation could exert a greater impact, especially if consumers ultimately prove unwilling to pay higher prices.

{snip}

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Economic Report
Coming up: U.S. consumer price index for October
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-consumer-price-index-for-october-11636550300

Published: Nov. 10, 2021 at 8:18 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash

Consumer price index forecast to rise 0.6%

The U.S. consumer price index is forecast to increase 0.6% in October, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The core PPI is seen rising 0.4%. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Inflation has risen at the fastest pace in 30 years owing to broad shortages of supplies and labor.

{snip}

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ECONOMY
U.S. Inflation Likely Reached 30-Year High in October
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-october-2021-11636491959

Economists estimate prices rose at the fastest pace since 1990 as supply constraints kept boosting costs

By Gwynn Guilford
Nov. 10, 2021 5:30 am ET
PRINT
TEXT
U.S. inflation likely hit a three-decade high in October, pushed up by pandemic-related supply shortages and continued strength in consumer demand.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate the Labor Department will report the consumer-price index--which measures what consumers pay for goods and services--rose 5.9% in October from the same month a year ago. That would mark the fastest pace since 1990 and the fifth straight month in which inflation topped 5%.

{snip}

[gab13by13]

1. Hey, going to get a real raise next year for my SS.

Page 2, likely eaten up by Medicare premiums and deductibles.

[Rebl2]

7. Yep it will be

[madville]

17. And what's left will have less buying power

It’s kind of depressing, wages finally going up, significant raises in some benefits, and at best they are worth the same as before. Possibly worth less with the current and expected inflation.

[progree]

20. Yes, real average hourly wages of production and non-supervisory workers have been sliding for

more than a year. But still above 2019 levels (there was a huge jump in this number at the beginning of the pandemic as it was mostly the lower wage people that lost their jobs). But as you say elsewhere, people care about what is happening lately.

("Real" means inflation-adjusted).

Average hourly wages of production and non-supervisory workers (seasonally adjusted)

Real Hourly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032

In the below, "nominal" means just the simple ordinary dollar amount, i.e. *not* inflation adjusted. These are seasonally adjusted:

Nominal Hourly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008

[Deb]

2. This puts a hurting on fixed income folks

So thankful our farm shares filled the freezer and pantry for the winter with enough to share.

[PoliticAverse]

23. Social Security COLA for 2022 is now fixed at 5.9% already behind by .5%. n/t

[I-Scream]

25. Just wait till the market tanks too.

It's been climbing for so long it's well past due for correction. Nevertheless, timing will lay it at the feet of Biden. If that happens, a perfect storm of inflation, job loss, investment loss and diminished tax revenue could really knock everyone for a loop.

Fixed income folks could find themselves in a better situation than many others at that point.

[doc03]

3. This will lose the House for us next year, it is going to be ugly nt

[Calista241]

13. 100%. People are about to begin their holiday shopping, and this is all we'll hear about.

If inflation lingers in Q1 and into Q2, even if it begins to subside, it'll be over for us in November.

[doc03]

18. That's all I hear and not just from Trumpists. Gas prices,

food prices and of course nobody wants to work. The nobody wants to work isn't going to help the BBB plan pass. Employers have to pay more to attract workers
higher wages doesn't help anyone if inflation eats it up.
Inflation is especially hard on us retirees with a fixed income. We went though that back in the 70s it was ugly.
It gave us Reagan and the middle class has suffered ever since.

[rockfordfile]

24. That's not going to happen this time

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. I can't update this. I keep getting "403 Forbidden"

[BumRushDaShow]

5. I was just about to ask how you managed to get that big an OP in without a 403

and you confirmed that once it did "take", you got the 403 trying to edit it.

EarlG has an OP with a poll in GD about the issue - https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216033466

[mahatmakanejeeves]

6. I managed to update the "guidance," but not the "regulation."

Last edited Wed Nov 10, 2021, 11:29 AM - Edit history (1)

I'll keep trying. Yes, CNBC misspelled "December" in the original article.

Eventually I'll make this right. They added a few paragraphs. They keep the same address for the news as for the placeholder article, just like Yahoo!

[BumRushDaShow]

9. I have an older OP that I regularly update

and it wouldn't even let me go in to fix a URL (literally remove a space from it) and preview just that change, without giving me a 403.

When I finally went into it again as a test and "removed" about 1/3rd of what was originally there (i.e., cut that much out and pasted the cut portion in a temp spot just in case), and then previewed what remained, no 403, and no problem doing any other edits in that OP.

I didn't make that test cut/edit permanent for that OP pending some (hopeful) other fix.

[Rebl2]

8. I have

been getting that occasionally too when I just try to go to DU.

[progree]

10. CPI ANNUALIZED rates: Last 2 years (Oct 2021/Oct 2019): 3.69%. Since Feb 2020: 4.31%

Regular CPI: CPI-U: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
October 2019: 257.387,
October 2020: 260.462,
October 2021: 276.724

February 2020: 258.824

February 2020 was the CPI peak before the pandemic began lowering prices for a few months.

Some argue that year over year (i.e. October 2020 to October 2021) exaggerates the CPI increase because 2020 was a pandemic era year that had 3 months of price drops. So that's why I show 2 year CPI changes. And the change from the pre-pandemic CPI high.

While the pre-pandemic comparisons aren't as bad as the headlines, its clear there is a problem, Houston.

And yes, the CPI has energy and food (as opposed to the core CPI which doesn't)

Edited to add: the BLS's CPI news: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. Hey, thanks. Good morning. I'll link to the BLS page if I can ever get it past "403 Forbidden." NT

[progree]

12. In the meantime, here it is (just the link)

The BLS's CPI news: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. I just noticed that CNBC said the increase was 6.2% in October.

"Consumer price index surges 6.2% in October, worse than expected and the highest since December 1990"

It was actually 0.9%. Maybe I can find a source that is more carefully worded. Probably TWSJ.

[progree]

16. Yeah that's sad. They mean October 2021 / October 2020 or 12 months ending October

or vs. year ago or somesuch

Regular CPI: CPI-U: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Oct 2020: 260.462
Oct 2021: 276.724
+6.2%

[madville]

15. Some can argue an exaggerated effect all they want

But independent voters have short memories and care about what is happening in the present to their wallet and what’s being done about it right now.

People see the CPI that includes energy and food everyday at the grocery store and gas pump, trying to rationalize that by saying the core CPI that excludes that isn’t as bad will fall on deaf ears to most.

[progree]

19. I agree entirely. What most people are going to take away from this is CPI is up 0.9% in the past

month and 6.2% in the past year. As they should. (The regular CPI that includes food and energy).

[Deminpenn]

27. It's gas prices

That's what most people look at because they're now out and about or driving every day. We forget that during the height of the pandemic, gas prices were about $2/gal (in PA with it's 50+ cent gas tax) for months.

Looking at my basic utility bills (gas, water, electric, sewage, trash), they haven't gone up much at all. Even unlimited cell phone and data service costs are coming down. Food is a bit more expensive, but some of that is probably due to higher wages (a good thing) being paid to workers up and down the supply chain.

[madville]

28. Utility prices usually aren't immediately affected

I work for an electric generating utility, for example we buy large units of natural gas well in advance so that prices are locked in and costs can be projected. Even if natural gas was suddenly double what it was last week, it won’t affect electric bills in the short term.

Natural gas is double the price now that it was in April 2021. If that trend continues or increases into next year, we’ll start to see electric rate increases as utilities account for increased costs.

[Deminpenn]

30. Utilities are also regulated

nt

[madville]

31. Yes, they have to request permission to increase rates

And they are frequently approved if it is justified, like the price of natural gas doubled, had to completely rebuild infrastructure after a major storm, build or upgrade a power plant/transmission lines, or just plain old cost of living rate increases/inflation.

[progree]

32. For many electric utilities like Xcel Energy, they have a fuel clause adjustment, fuel costs are

passed straight on to customers.

I don't know what the situation is with natural gas utilities around here (Minnesota).

[Evolve Dammit]

21. With soaring costs and stagnant wages we have been on a greased rope for years. Every menial pay

increase is totally negated by health care, Rx alone. Never mind everything else. Been going backwards for 20 years or more. Pretty depressing really. But you know what they want for meds to treat that??

[madville]

29. $15.00 an hour is basically what $7.50 an hour

Was 10 years ago. It’s a nice that wages have gone up but it’s break even at best.

The convenience store near my job has a big hiring sign out front, $17 an hour for cashiers and I’m in a fairly rural area outside a city of 100k in the southeast.

[andym]

22. Inflation has caused voters to think the economy is sick according to recent articles

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/inflation-concerns-democrats-hope-biden-spending-bills-win-over-voters.html
"Inflation is making voters unhappy with the economy – Democrats hope their infrastructure and social bills"

https://www.axios.com/economy-inflation-stocks-good-pessimism-biden-997e1f94-f600-4475-8cc3-811fd5cf247c.html
"The economy is great, but voters don't believe it"
"-By the numbers: Economic strength is undeniable, both in the country overall and at the household level. The economy is expected to grow 5.7% this year.
-Almost 6 million jobs were created just between January and October; the unemployment rate is now just 4.6%. The quit rate, the standard barometer of workers' optimism, hit an all-time record high of 2.9% in August.
-Average earnings are up 3.5% this year and 4.9% annually, to $31 per hour.
-Checking accounts are 50% fatter than they were pre-pandemic, while the bottom 50% of the population now has more than $3 trillion in household wealth — up 32% just in the first half of this year, and up 55% from before the pandemic.
-Stocks hit a new record high every day last week (and yesterday, too), and are up more than 30% year-t0-date.
-Yes, but: 56% of voters think the country is on the wrong track, up from 39% in June, per the Harris Poll; 57% think the economy is weak, up from 43% in June.

The Gallup economic confidence index is now at -25, down from positive territory in June."
----------------
The good news is that economists predict that inflation should start to recede as the supply issues resolve and oil production and shipping increases. The impact of high inflation probably hurt Democrats at the polls last week, but if the economy remains strong and inflation dissipates, that should really help next year.

Also there is a real opportunity to claim that Biden's bills helped "fix" the economy next year (though the ecoomy is actually strong right now anyways, it's what people beleive that counts): we would have "Biden's Miracle", just like "Ronnie Miracle", but with benefits to Democrats this time.