Fauci says early reports encouraging about omicron variant

[Omaha Steve]

Source: AP

By GENE JOHNSON

U.S. health officials said Sunday that while the omicron variant of the coronavirus is rapidly spreading throughout the country, early indications suggest it may be less dangerous than delta, which continues to drive a surge of hospitalizations.

President Joe Biden’s chief medial adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN’s “State of the Union” that scientists need more information before drawing conclusion’s about omicron’s severity.

Reports from South Africa, where it emerged and is becoming the dominant strain, suggest that hospitalization rates have not increased alarmingly.

“Thus far, it does not look like there’s a great degree of severity to it,” Fauci said. “But we have really got to be careful before we make any determinations that it is less severe or it really doesn’t cause any severe illness, comparable to delta.”



FILE - Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaks during the daily briefing at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2021. U.S. health officials said Sunday, Dec. 5 that while the omicron variant of the coronavirus is rapidly spreading throughout the country, early indications suggest it may be less dangerous than delta, which continues to drive a surge of hospitalizations. President Joe Biden's chief medial adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN's “State of the Union” that scientists need more information before drawing conclusion's about omicron's severity. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-lifestyle-health-travel-ef7c250c58b90b9835a972d7ebd9556b

[Bleacher Creature]

1. Fauci wouldn't say something like this unless he were fairly confident in the statement.

He obviously left himself some wiggle room and it's still VERY early, but I'm pretty sure he's not just speaking off the cuff based solely on anecdotal evidence.

[wnylib]

2. I respect Fauci, but I wish that he would not

say something like this so early. If it turns out to be as bad as or worse than delta, people will accuse him of being misleading or backtracking. That will be their excuse for not listening to him in tbe future.

I am hoping that omicron is at least not worse than delta. But, since it is so infectious, and causes more breakthrough infections, the death rates will go up due to more vulnerable people getting breakthrough infections - seniors, diabetics, pregnant women, transplant and cancer patients. It looks like it will not be much of a problem for younger, healthy adults. But children under 5 are more likely to get it since they are not vaccinated and omicron is so infectious.

[AZLD4Candidate]

3. The mark of a scientist is to take all existing data, make a hypothesis, and see if you're right

That's what he did when he said "thus far," meaning the hypothesis might be wrong when more data is found.

Science is not always exact because there are always variables that are both known and unknown that could change everything.

I really see nothing wrong with what he said because of his statement "thus far."

[KS Toronado]

5. I agree

Although RW media will ignore the "thus far" when referring to his statement in the future.
Anything to paint him as an evil scientist who hates Rs is their game plan.

[wnylib]

9. You're preaching to the choir regarding

the development of a hypothesis and collection of data. I understand that process. But many people in the general public do not. They think in either/or terms without hearing qualifiers and nuances.

[AZLD4Candidate]

19. Republicans only think in binary. Yes/No, Right/Wrong, Right Wing/Communist

They really must have done terribly in any high school science or social studies class.

[yaesu]

6. Initial symptoms reported have been fatigue with no loss of smell or taste, I am becoming

fairly optimistic that this strain may be the deathknell of deadly covid. Even if more contagious I'm hoping it will become no more of a hazard than the common cold to those with underlying conditions.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. He is NOT the only one saying "early reports are encouraging"

As to you writing

since it is so infectious, and causes more breakthrough infections, the death rates will go up due to more vulnerable people getting breakthrough infections

... that does not follow logically.

The flu is more infectious than Covid. Covid kills more.

The common cold is more infectious than the flu. The flu kills more.

[wnylib]

10. I disagree about whether my statement is logical.

We know that seniors, diabetics, pregnant women, and cancer and transplant patients are more vulnerable than the general population to developing serious to severe cases of covid if they get infected. Therefore, a variant that is more infectious and results in more breakthrough infections is more likely to be contracted by people in the vulnerable populations that I mentioned.

Also, the flu is not covid so the comparison is not valid.

[IronLionZion]

8. It's very likely this variant mutated within vulnerable people

as in it adapted to not kill them so that it can spread more easily. While it is true that young healthy people and children have been hospitalized with Omicron in South Africa, no one has died from it yet.

[progree]

12. In U.S. for example, 809k deaths out of 49,979k cases, or 1.6% host death rate

Doesn't seem to me that a 1.6% host death rate would be much of a hindrance to its survival and spreading. I don't believe that the difference between past and existing variants' 1.6% host death rate -- and a strain (Omicron) with a (so far as we know) 0.0% host death rate -- explains more than a tiny bit of the apparent far-superior reproductive success of Omicron.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Edited to add - nevertheless, am glad to read that it appears to be a lot milder -- the below is more than one doctor's impression:

Early data from South Africa hints Omicron variant may cause less severe Covid, but more research is needed, STATNEWS, 12/4/21

https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data

Strikingly, most hospitalized patients who tested positive for Covid did not need supplemental oxygen. Few developed Covid pneumonia, few required high-level care, and fewer still were admitted to intensive care.

The report included an analysis of 42 Covid patients in the hospital on Dec. 2 which showed that most were actually hospitalized for other medical reasons; their infections were only detected because hospitals are testing all incoming patients for Covid. Many did not have respiratory symptoms. And the average length of hospital stay was 2.8 days, far shorter than the average of 8.5 days recorded in the region over the past 18 months, the report said.

“The relatively low number of Covid-19 pneumonia hospitalizations in the general, high care and ICU wards constitutes a very different picture compared to the beginning of previous waves,” said the report, authored by Fareed Abdullah, director of the SAMRC’s office of AIDS and TB research.

[IronLionZion]

13. It's much higher death rate for immune compromised people

so it may have adapted to not kill immune compromised people. We'll see once there is more data.

[progree]

15. And much lower death rate (fraction of a percent) for the non-elderly non-immune-compromised people

so I think the average metric is a relevant one.

Maybe there is some data coming out that will show that a near-0 host death rate strain is overwhelmingly reproductively better than a 1.6% host death rate on average, but I strongly suspect that other factors are much much larger in explaining the fast spread of Omicron (like some of those 30 mutations in the spike protein).

But I will grant that the meme that current strains are shooting themselves in the foot (with a 1.6% average host-kill rate) and so are going to inevitably be overtaken by something less lethal is an extremely very popular one on message boards. I've never read/heard that point being made by an epidemiologist or other expert about Covid-19 -- that existing strains' lethality is dooming it to milder competition -- but maybe I missed it.

[IronLionZion]

16. Transmissibility is the key factor in a new variant taking over

see how quickly Delta took over globally more than the other variants. So a more transmissible variant could overtake Delta.

[progree]

17. That I definitely agree with. Even the omicron optimists are saying it is spreading much faster

than delta. I read one today (I don't know his credentials) that said the rest of the world will be where South Africa is in about 9 weeks. I just don't think that the host kill percentage difference is more than a very small part of its superior transmissablilty. I haven't heard any epidemiologist who thinks otherwise, but again I could have missed it.

[soldierant]

4. Assuming it's accurate, it's still

not =necessarily good news. In terks of evolution, "more contagion with less severity" is the way for a disease to transition from pandemic to endemic. Not that we have a choice, but do we really wany CoViD to become endemic? We already have the common cold and the seasonal flu (the latterof wich is noteorthy for continuing to mutate.) Of course, as I already noted, it's not like we have a choice.

[oldsoftie]

11. Its pretty much accepted that it will become endemic.

Dont really see how it could be totally eliminated with the characteristics it has

[Ace Rothstein]

14. There is no way COVID doesn't become endemic.

I don't think anyone has been talking about zero COVID as a possibility since the spring.

[soldierant]

18. Good point.

I just worry, when it's endemic, how crazy the next mutation will be.