Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in Britain, US

[brooklynite]

Source: AP News

Scientists are seeing signals that COVID-19?s alarming omicron wave may have peaked in Britain and is about to do the same in the U.S., at which point cases may start dropping off dramatically.

The reason: The variant has proved so wildly contagious that it may already be running out of people to infect, just a month and a half after it was first detected in South Africa.

“It’s going to come down as fast as it went up,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle.

At the same time, experts warn that much is still uncertain about how the next phase of the pandemic might unfold. The plateauing or ebbing in the two countries is not happening everywhere at the same time or at the same pace. And weeks or months of misery still lie ahead for patients and overwhelmed hospitals even if the drop-off comes to pass.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/omicron-wave-britain-us-160ded1ce8d82075057630e11b610358

[BootinUp]

1. hybrid says you getting ahead of the story. nt

[Sherman A1]

2. Yeah, Posted this last night and opinions were not real positive that this would occur

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216236416

[Alexander Of Assyria]

7. The opinions of the scientists in this thread post much preferred over those opinions, in my book.

[IronLionZion]

3. It might be regional for the US

where urban hotspots now might see a drop off soon with a combination of strict measures and fewer new people left to infect. But rural areas will make COVID great again with little or no measures and lower vaccination rates.

[geardaddy]

10. This

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Here in Philly, the Health Dir. had a weekly COVID-19 press conference yesterday

and noted a slight leveling off here although she didn't want to be definitive until more data comes in through (with possibilities being that this might mean there were less "get togethers" at New Year's and the post-Christmas surge is waning without an added potential boost from New Year's activities).

Of course there is the issue that Delta is still in circulation.

[YP_Yooper]

9. On the other side of PA in Pittsburgh this past week

COVID is exploding even over Nov/Dec, especially in what you can guess-timate with the unreported cases indicative with the very high positivity rate, but the hospitalizations and deaths aren't

23,459 infections

60% vaccinated
40% not vaccinated
9% reinfection (recovered over the past 2 yrs, not classified vacc/non-vacc)
0.2% death rate

Infection rate up over 35%
but COVID as a primary factor taking up only 10% of 4,700 beds

A much different picture from earlier variants, and very good news

Data from Allegheny Alerts and Johns Hopkins
[link:https://alleghenycounty.us/Health-Department/Resources/COVID-19/COVID-19.aspx|
[link:https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map|

[BumRushDaShow]

11. So far here in the immediate city

the hospitalizations haven't completely overwhelmed the city hospital systems yet. And being a large city, we do often get people in from the surrounding counties (and the states of NJ & Delaware) at those hospitals (particularly if any are specialized).

We are at 72% 12+ full vaxxed.

This is what they reported yesterday -

Link to tweet

Philadelphia Public Health
@PHLPublicHealth
January 11, 2022 COVID-19 vax update:

969,924 residents fully vaxxed
78.1% of adults fully vaxxed
72.4% of residents 12+ fully vaxxed
95+% of adults have at least 1 dose
92.0% of residents 12+ have at least 1 dose
29.4% of 5-11 have at least 1 dose

➡️ http://ow.ly/Kkqn50F9Zr0
Image
12:30 PM · Jan 11, 2022

Link to tweet

Philadelphia Public Health
@PHLPublicHealth
January 11, 2022 COVID-19 update:

4,833 new cases
242,544 Philadelphians diagnosed with COVID-19
4,258 Philadelphians have died from COVID-19
33.2% positivity rate

For more information: http://ow.ly/oD5Q50F9ZpR
Image
12:30 PM · Jan 11, 2022

But adjoining Delaware County is getting hit big time and one of their hospitals had to divert ER patients. They were also a County that had been GOP dominated for decades and gradually became purple and finally more blue after 2018 and for the first time, Democrats held all 5 County Council seats after the 2019 election (the 2021 election saw 2 seats go back to the GOP). But during the GOP stranglehold, they were also the largest county (by population) in the state that had no Health Department. During the pandemic, they were forced to rely on Chester County's Health Department to cover them (despite Chester County have much less population). So since 2019, the County has been planning and is finally about to stand up a brand new Health Department this month once the state gives its final okay.

NYT's tracker (here - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/pennsylvania-covid-cases.html) shows the current PA hotspots for cases (the "Philadelphia" name overlay is actually sitting over Delaware County for some reason and should have been pushed up some ) -



and the current per capita (clip is of the top 15 Counties) -

[Blues Heron]

5. exponential growth is ultimately unsutainable so it has to come down at some point

that doesnt mean dropping you guard though, so keep masking like your life depends on it.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

6. If a distinguished professor of health metrics SCIENCE says so I believe him and do not need

to do research on Twitter or Facebook.

[quakerboy]

8. That should turn out well

I mean, this is the USA. Im sure that a significant portion of the population couldn't possibly take a drop in rates as a sign that covid is over and they should actively expose themselves to others without restraint, leading to a following resurgent peak of Delta, or whatever variant comes next, or both.

That would NEVER happen, right?