Payrolls rose 311,000 in February, more than expected, as jobs growth stays hot

[Joe Cool]

Source: CNBC

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 225,000 in February, while the unemployment rate was projected to hold at 3.4%, according to Dow Jones.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/jobs-report-february-2023.html

[gab13by13]

1. That probably pisses off Jerome Powell

[Lovie777]

4. Better yet....................

shithole and comrades will take credit for it

[Doodley]

2. Wage inflation only 0.2% -- half of the forecast rate. This is great news for inflation!

[IronLionZion]

3. Ready for more rate hikes?

It's great for folks who are earning interest. But not so great for folks trying to buy a home or car or something else through financing. Which is the point, but still.

[durablend]

5. Powell isn't going to be pleased

"JACK UP THOSE RATES!!!! NEED MORE UNEMPLOYED PROLES!!!!!"

[progree]

6. Unemployment rate went from 3.4% to 3.6%, still very low, Labor Force up 419,000

Last edited Fri Mar 10, 2023, 11:03 AM - Edit history (1)

which is very good news as the labor force has been flat since about March of last year or so, despite the big payroll jobs gains of 2022 and January 2023, and today's.

Not in Labor Force declined 269,000, also good

The labor force participation rate has been dwindling from a high point of about 67.3% in 2000 to 62.5% now (BLS's February report). (It was 62.4% in March 2022, so there has been only a 0.1% increase in the past 11 months).



Labor force participation rate: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Labor force in thousands: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

The labor force = employed + officially unemployed as per the BLS's monthly Household Survey

The officially unemployed are jobless people who have looked for work in the past 4 weeks (must be more than just looking at job listings). That's why they are counted as part of the labor force: either employed or actively looking for work. BTW, the officially unemployed is not a count of people claiming unemployment insurance, it has nothing to do with that (a common myth unfortunately).

How the Government Measures Unemployment http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

===================================================

The entire BLS jobs report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

[progree]

7. LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Table A - Summary of Household Survey (produces unemployment rate, labor force participation rate) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
    # Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
    # Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
    # White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . The Data Series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
. . . . . . Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789

Data series finder: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.

[Ray Bruns]

8. This Biden recession is killing me!

[progree]

9. Prime age (25-54) Labor Force Participation Rate at the PRE-PANDEMIC PEAK, highest since 2008

Last edited Fri Mar 10, 2023, 01:22 PM - Edit history (1)

The February 83.1% participation rate matches the pre-pandemic peak level of January 2020, which in turn was the highest level since 2008 (it was previously higher, peaking at 84.6% at the dot-com high point)

Table and Graph: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
YEAR JAN FEB MAR etc.
2019 82.5 82.5 82.5 82.3 82.2 82.2 82.1 82.5 82.7 82.8 82.8 82.9
2020 83.1 83.0 82.5 79.9 80.6 81.5 81.2 81.3 80.9 81.2 80.9 81.0
2021 81.1 81.2 81.3 81.4 81.3 81.7 81.9 81.7 81.6 81.7 81.9 81.9
2022 82.1 82.3 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.4 82.4 82.8 82.6 82.5 82.3 82.4
2023 82.7 83.1

[republianmushroom]

10. good

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. Links to earlier reports:

Fri Mar 10, 2023: Links to earlier reports: (this one)

Wed Mar 8, 2023: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 3, 2023: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 3, 2023: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jan 7, 2023: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 5, 2023: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Dec 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Nov 30, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Nov 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Nov 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 7, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Oct 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 31, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Aug 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 3, 2022: ADP has suspended its report until September.

Fri Jul 8, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jul 6, 2022: ADP has suspended its report until September.

Fri Jun 3, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jun 1, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 6, 2022: Links to earlier reports

Wed May 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Apr 1, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 30, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Mar 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Feb 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 12, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Sat Dec 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Dec 1, 2021: Links to additional earlier reports:

Fri Nov 5, 2021: (I had to split the links into two posts, due to "Forbidden 403" issues)

Links to earlier reports:

Links to additional earlier reports:

Wed Nov 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2023: (this one)

Fri Mar 10, 2023: Payrolls rose 311,000 in February, more than expected, as jobs growth stays hot

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2023:

Wed Mar 8, 2023: Private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, better than expected, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2023:

Fri Feb 3, 2023: Payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2023:

Wed Feb 1, 2023: Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2022 (this one):

Fri Jan 7, 2023: Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in December, as strong jobs market tops expectations

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2022:

Wed Jan 5, 2023: Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2022:

Payrolls rose by 263,000 in November, more than expected despite Fed rate hikes

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2022:

Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2022:

U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2022:

Private payrolls rose 239,000 in October, better than expected, while wages increased 7.7%, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2022:

Jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 263,000 in September, unemployment rate falls to 3.5%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2022:

Businesses added 208,000 jobs in September, better than expected, ADP reports

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2022:

August jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 315,000 last month

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2022:

Private payrolls grew by just 132,000 in August, ADP says in reworked jobs report

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2022:

Employers added 528,000 jobs in July, as the hot labor market powers on

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2022:

ADP has suspended its report until September.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2022:

June jobs report: Payrolls rise by 372,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2022:

ADP has suspended its report until September.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2022:

May jobs report: Payrolls rise by 390,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2022:

U.S. Treasury yields fall as data show slowest job growth in pandemic recovery

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2022:

April jobs report: Payrolls rise by 428,000 as unemployment rate holds at 3.6%

[ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2022:

U.S. Companies Added 247,000 Jobs in April, ADP Data Show

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2022:

U.S. economy adds 431,000 jobs in March

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2022:

Private payrolls rose by 455,000 in March, topping expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2022:

February jobs report: Payrolls rise by 678,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.8%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2022:

Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February, topping expectations: ADP

[mathematic]

12. Another solid month of job growth, despite the anti-fed prognosticators

I'm sure Powell's glad that the "soft landing" still appears to be on the table. If he nails this he'll go down as the greatest central banker in history. CPI's projected to be on the high side though, so we'll see when it gets released on tuesday.

[DemocraticPatriot]

13. New jobs are suddenly much less important,

when Democrats are in the White House....


Democrats have delivered.

Republicans never did, no matter how much they promised jobs before an an election, or 2, or 3 or 4....