Jobless claims push off five-year lows last week

[coalition_unwilling]

Source: Reuters (via Yahoo)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits bounced off five-year lows last week, pulling them back to levels consistent with modest job growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims figure was unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected claims to increase to 350,000.





Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-push-off-five-133118083.html

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Let's be clear here. The number of Americans claiming first-time UE benefits last week jumped 10% (from 330,000 to 368,000). Combined with the news yesterday that GDP shrank 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012, the news again underlines that under Rape-publi-scum leadership, the economy is in a dead-cat bounce.

See also: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384951

Time for Obama to start campaigning for 2014 mid-terms NOW. Campaigning against the Do-Nothing Congress. Time for the Dem Party to look to mount strong competitors in EVERY House district.

ETA: First paragraph is one of the worst I've read in a long time. When first-time UE claims climb 10% in a single week, that does NOT point to 'modest job growth'. For fuck's sake. That Yahoo editor should be fired.

[coalition_unwilling]

1. One self-kick for the mid- and late-morning crew. - n/t

[Morganfleeman]

2. Can't look at one week

Numbers tend to be volatile in January

[coalition_unwilling]

3. You most certainly can look at #s for one week, especially

when consensus forecast was for increase to only 350,000. (Economists and analysts do this all the time.)

Yipes.

[DallasNE]

4. Headline Numbers Can Be Misleading

Yes, GDP did shrink modestly. Two of those factors were the volatile defense spending numbers that pulled back sharply in the 4th quarter and an unexpected slowing in inventory buildup in the face of fairly strong consumer spending. Both of those events are likely tied to the uncertainty caused by the dysfunctional House taking the fiscal cliff down to literally the last hour. And kicking the can down the road for 3 months does little to address the issue of uncertainty. It would also be helpful to look at the regional numbers as one suspects that Sandy hammered GDP in the Northeast.

Jobless claims are always volatile so that is why one should only look at the four week moving average because that smooth's out those numbers and gives a clearer picture of what is happening. Friday we will have the January jobs numbers and I fully expect they will show modest job growth.

We are on the same page about the do-nothing Congress that is an unmitigated disaster. Obama has announced that his campaign team is being transformed into a permanent campaign. I also believe that Howard Dean's 50 State strategy worked and Democrats need to get back on board with that strategy.

[coalition_unwilling]

5. I was going to say it's the one-two punch (of contracting GDP and increases

in UE claims).

Then I realized it's actually a perfect trifecta (to quote our illustrious prior occupant of the WH):

Contracting GDP in Q4 2012
Increasing claims for UE in Week 4 of January 2013
Collapse in Consumer Confidence in December, 2012

Any of these taken in isolation might be dismissed as a one-off. Even two taken together could be dismissed as normal seasonal volatility. But all 3??? Does not bode well for near-future macroeconomic trends.