Syrian Army, Backed By Jets, Launches Assault On Homs

[Purveyor]

Source: REUTERS

By Dominic Evans

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces launched a major offensive on Saturday against rebels in Homs, a centre of the two-year-old uprising, in their latest drive to secure an axis connecting Damascus to the Mediterranean.

Activists said jets and mortars had pounded rebel-held areas of the city that have been under siege by Assad's troops for a year, and soldiers fought battles with rebel fighters in several districts.

"Government forces are trying to storm (Homs) from all fronts," said an activist using the name Abu Mohammad.

--CLIP
Syrian state media said the army was "achieving great progress" in Khalidiyah but the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an anti-Assad monitoring group, said there were reports that rebels had destroyed an army tank as troops tried to penetrate the Old City in the centre of Homs.

Read more: http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCABRE95S06K20130629

[Comrade Grumpy]

1. Controlling Homs is critical to Assad's survival strategy. Stay tuned.

[formercia]

2. Apparently, the attack has failed

The FSA reportedly killed 'scores' of Hizbullah and Regime troops and captured APC's and a substantial amount of ammunition.
No link yet. This was a report from someone there.

[Comrade Grumpy]

4. Yeah, maybe like Qusayr, where we heard about the dozens of Hezbollah casulties...

...but not so much about the hundreds or thousands of dead rebels.

I doubt this will be a one-day affair.

[formercia]

16. ....

[Comrade Grumpy]

22. The opposition put the rebel dead at Qusayr at 431 to more than 500.

The Syrian government said more than 1,200.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_al-Qusayr_(2013)

Who's laughing now? Not the rebels in Qusayr.

[joshcryer]

25. I'm sure you approve of US drone attacks against terrorists.

Since it murders so many.

Hint (big one): for every one killed 2 or more are created. Think about it, your home country, your loved ones, they're fighting for what they believe in, you think they're a bit anal or a bit radical. They then get killed. Do you decide that they fought for nothing? In most cases, no, you say, "huh, that person I knew, I think they were on the right side and were fighting for a just cause."

This is the radicalization of war. It happens time and time again.

[Sand Wind]

31. His only perspective is : "good or bad for Israël". He is ready to sacrifice people and logic

for this, and support any dictator, so you can make a deduction for your question about the drone.

[Comrade Grumpy]

32. Wow. Two consecutive non sequitur responses.

[Sand Wind]

33. We don't have to accepte your premises. Nt

[Comrade Grumpy]

35. Sure. But you don't get to just make them up, either, which you just did.

You seem to think that my position is motivated by what's good for Israel. What reason do you have for thinking that?

[Sand Wind]

3. Assad’s forces which are being backed by Lebanese Hezbollah militants

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/29/Syrian-army-launches-offensive-in-Homs-city.html

[Comrade Grumpy]

5. Yeah, and there may even be a few Syrian rebels in among the Algerians, Brits, Belgians, Chechens...

...Libyans, Qataris, Saudis, and Turks they're fighting. You know, all those folks so concerned about Syrian democracy that they rushed there to install a fundamentalist Islamic caliphate.

[jzodda]

6. I doubt democracy is on the list of concerns right now

Maybe surviving is enough when you are under siege. I am sure the Syrian rebels would welcome anybody who would come and fight with them.

If we were at war in this country and I was under constant threat of death I would not be too picky with who my friends were either.

[rpannier]

20. I'm sure the government forces which are backed by minority groups

within Syria appreciate the support the government is getting.
Given how well they were treated in Iraq, Egypt and Libya, if I were a refugee who had fled to Syria from Iraq or a member of a minority group born in Syria I'd be supporting Assad

[pampango]

7. According to the Center for American Progress, Syrians make up about 95% of the rebels.

The foreign fighters number around 6,000 or about 5% of the total.

You know, all those folks so concerned about Syrian democracy that they rushed there to install a fundamentalist Islamic caliphate.

Those 6,000 are certainly not fighting Assad out any concern for Syrian democracy, but my guess is that you could say the same about the Hezbollah fighters helping Assad (who may number over 6,000 by the way).



http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2013/05/14/63221/the-structure-and-organization-of-the-syrian-opposition/

[indio55555]

8. 6,000 eh? It depends on where you get the data from.

Video below states that 95% of Syrian rebels are NOT Syrians.

[Sand Wind]

10. RT, lol, who cite an imaginary report, lol, that nobody can found, lol.

The real report said that :


German intelligence estimates that “around 90? terror attacks that “can be attributed to organizations that are close to al-Qaeda or jihadist groups” were carried out in Syria between the end of December and the beginning of July, as reported by the German daily Die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). This was revealed by the German government in a response to a parliamentary question.

[Purveyor]

13. That's right. It isn't 'real' new unless Fox news says it is eh? eom

[Sand Wind]

14. RT and Faux News are the two sides of the same stupid coin. Nt.

[Purveyor]

15. Not from where I sit as I have RT streaming in the office at least 4 hours a day. eom

[pampango]

30. Aren't you the first one to bring FOX news into this discussion? Sand Wind did not.

It would be more "real" if there were a link to the report or a direct quote from it rather than a Russia Today interview with a guy who quotes a statistic he says he read in a German intelligence report.

If the information in this report is unclassified and, apparently, suitable for public release it would be helpful to see it or, at least, an "unclassified" summary of it. The republican tactic of selecting a bit of "convenient" information from a study that no one has seen and cannot be revealed is no more believable when a Russian does it than when Boehner or McConnell do it.

[jzodda]

12. LOL thats the Foreign Minister of Syria

Of course he is going to say that! Lol

[pampango]

17. If you trust Russia Today more than the Center for American Progress then we disagree

on that.

The creation of Russia Today was a part of a larger effort by the Kremlin intended to improve the image of Russia abroad. RT was conceived by former media minister Mikhail Lesin, and Vladimir Putin’s press spokesperson Aleksei Gromov.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_Today

It is not surprising that RT would present an image of the Syrian opposition that "improves the image of Russia abroad" since it is the main weapons supplier for Assad.

The Center for American Progress is a progressive public policy research and advocacy organization. Its website states that the organization is "dedicated to improving the lives of Americans through progressive ideas and action".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_American_Progress

FYI the Center for American Progress opposes US involvement in the Syrian civil war. It does so using facts to arrive at policy recommendations, not by deciding on a policy and then manufacturing the "facts" that make it look good.

If you find a link to the German intelligence service report referenced in the RT story, I would love to see it. I had no luck finding it. More facts are always a good thing.

[joshcryer]

26. Thanks as always pampango for your insightful commentary.

It's good that the center for American Progress opposes US involvement.

[jzodda]

11. Thanks for this!

n/t

[John2]

18. You really want to know

want to know what is so funny about your report. The casualties and captured rebels tell the whole story. Not many rebels from syria have been killed or captured by the Syrian Army, and the have killed thousands, and captured just about as many. So you still want to claim 95 percent of the rebels are Syrians? And they have documented 800, just from one country. There are people right now in syrian jails trying to get released. The Syrian Government has information on how these people were recruited and trained also by secret operations and covert activities by other countries. They also have evidence from Syrian civilians that have been recently freed about coercive tactics by these individuals to terrorize them if they didn't act a certain way. These Goverrnments better come clean because the truth always have a tendancy to come out. That is why transparency pays off. And another thing, do you have an update report on dead Hezbullah fighters? Are they still burying them in Lebanon?

[pampango]

23. It is not MY report. It was done by the Center for American Progress.

The casualties and captured rebels tell the whole story. Not many rebels from syria have been killed or captured by the Syrian Army.

Is there a link to this? Has a outside organization verified this or is the Syrian government the only source? If this has been verified by a reputable organization that would, of course, change my view of the CAP's analysis.

They also have evidence from Syrian civilians that have been recently freed about coercive tactics by these individuals to terrorize them if they didn't act a certain way.

I do not doubt that one bit. Of course, the same can be said about the treatment of civilians by the Syrian government. Amnesty International has concluded that the "vast majority" of human rights abuses and war crimes have been committed by the government not by the rebels.

... do you have an update report on dead Hezbullah fighters? Are they still burying them in Lebanon?

No. Do you? I don't know where they are being buried. Do you?

Or is it that you do not believe Hezbollah is actually fighting with the Syrian army against the opposition in Syria?

[Sand Wind]

24. People read bullshit from RT and Press TV, read report that do not exist,

And speak about that like if its real, and just forget where they are taking that : in the sewer of the Iranian and Russian propaganda. Two totalitarian countries with no independant institution and research.

[Comrade Grumpy]

21. A couple of things:

1. Assuming that all the foreign jihadis are in Al Nusra probably understates their presence. There are other foreign jihadi groups present in Syria, including Al Qaeda in Iraq (which wants to take over Al Nusra and is squabbling with Zawahiri over that). And there are likely foreign fighters in other of the fighting formations, such as the Syrian Islamic Front.

2. All these numbers are estimates, as the report's author concedes. I haven't gotten around to looking at the endnotes, but I would be curious to see where they pulled them from.

3. Okay, three things. While I don't want to deny that there was a democratic upswelling to which the government responded harshly, I have to wonder how much of that is left in these various rebel factions. From all the accounts I've read, including this one, which is rather anodyne, the FSA is pretty much a fiction, it's every commander for himself, and it has devolved to pretty much little more than warlordism, with a good dash of what would be called terrorism anywhere else thrown in.

[joshcryer]

27. To point 3 it's probably fubar'd.

Unfortunately sectarianism was able to be fostered in Syria by outside groups.

So in that vein I agree FSA is "pretty much a fiction." But some parts of FSA probably do have a just cause and a just reason to fight and I would support them.

The reason I'm not doing daily updates and threads about Syria is that it's simply impossible to root out those FSA fighters who want what's right for Syria and want the regime ended and democracy to flourish. It's too split up and divided.

The protracted nature of support for Syrian groups possibly did this. Had a strong "we will support you if you support democracy" element emerged early on, and been implemented harshly (ie, drone attacks against groups that didn't behave properly), perhaps the situation would be different.

For what it's worth all freedom fighters are terrorists by internationalist language and law. It's a simple fact.

[pampango]

29. Good points. My response:

1. "probably understates", "there are likely ..."

Since their numbers are rough estimates, it is certainly probable that they are high in some cases and low in others. If there are other studies done by reputable organizations, they should be part of the conversation as well - whether they show numbers similar to CAP's or significantly different ones.

2. "All these numbers are estimates, as the report's author concedes."

Quite true. I would not expect accurate numbers in the middle of a civil war. (I would not want to be a census worker in Syria right now).

I respect CAP as a progressive organization and think they have done their best to inject facts into the policy discussion - even when "facts" are just the best estimates they can make.

It is not like they are using republican tactics of making up "facts" to support a predetermined policy choice. CAP opposes foreign, particularly American, intervention as more likely to make things worse rather than better. Like most liberals (and liberal organizations) they try to rely on facts (or as close as they can get to them) rather than on fear, emotion and "convenient facts" that happily support the policy that one prefers.

3. "While I don't want to deny that there was a democratic upswelling to which the government responded harshly, I have to wonder how much of that is left in these various rebel factions."

I largely agree with you. I think the "democratic upswelling" is still there but it gets pushed far into the background (hopefully not extinguished) in the middle of such sustained violence. The longer this civil war has gone on, and the longer it continues into the future, the less of a factor the "democratic upswelling", which I agree was present at the beginning, becomes.

While I believe that foreign involvement will make things worse not better for the Syrian people, it does bother me that Assad's "harsh" response to the outbreak of democratic sentiment in 2011 will prove to be a "successful" tactic - not the Syrian people, of course, but for Assad's continued rule.

His tactic proves to other dictators that if you use the army to put down democracy movements, particularly in the Middle East, you may be unpopular at the beginning but, as time goes on, the repression will bring out the most violent wings of the domestic opposition to you and attract "really bad characters" from elsewhere.

Voila! You are no longer the bad dictator opposing a "democratic upswelling" but a great sectarian leader opposing religious fanatics. Now that you have won the PR battle, all that is left is for the army to win the military battle. With a continuing supply of tanks, planes and ammunition that should not be too hard. There is a lesson here for dictators everywhere.

[joshcryer]

36. Bingo. Syria proves if you crush the democracy movement early...

...then you win the PR war by other elements that will eventually foster. At least in the middle east (but this may apply elsewhere).

(It also, incidentally, proves that left-internationalism can turn a blind eye to such events if said dictator rules from the supposed left, because eventually those other elements will come in and "prove" that it's "not a democratic movement now." All they have to do is wait for those seedy elements to materialize, and suddenly they're on the correct side of the argument.)

[PaulKersey]

9. Just hope we stay out of this mess

[quadrature]

19. why use jet aircraft? artillery would be more helpful. nt

nt

[joshcryer]

28. Jets are more precise.

I would approve of jets over artillery any day.

[EX500rider]

34. With competent well trained pilots using modern munitions yes...

.....with poorly trained MIG-21 pilots doing ground attack with non-precision weapons maybe no....or even worse, pushing homemade bombs out the back of cargo planes and helicopters.....in those case arty with a spotter may be a safer bet to be on target.

[cgrissomb]

37. Another gas pipeline proxy war brought to you by Peak Oil, climate change, and energy geopolitics.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/may/13/1

[David__77]

38. Consolidating Damascus and Homs is key to the government.

If I were advising the government, I would not try to take additional areas in Aleppo or north or Idlib. I would try to clear Homs and Damascus, and especially to put a stop to the random shelling of civilian areas by insurgents. Restoring normal economic life to Damascus would be a key factor. Assad has no need to grasp the whole country, but only to gather close to him a coalition of 1) minority sects and religions, and 2) a portion of left-leaning and secular forces in order to remain in power indefinitely. The secular Afghan government in the 80s, even with the terrible Soviet occupation, never held more than a strand of territory/roads containing a handful of population centers - and that war went on for 13 years. I could certainly see Assad consolidating Damascus, Homs, Daraa, and of course the coastal region.