Midterm Election Indicators Daunting for Democrats

[brooklynite]

Source: Pew Research

With the midterm elections six months away, Democrats are burdened by an uneven economic recovery and a stubbornly unpopular health care law. Perhaps equally important, Barack Obama’s political standing is in some respects weaker than it was at a comparable point in the 2010 campaign, which ended with the Republicans gaining a majority in the House.

A national survey by the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY, conducted April 23-27 among 1,501 adults (including 1,162 registered voters), finds that 47% of registered voters support the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 43% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. The trend over the past six months in the so-called generic ballot shows that Democrats have lost ground. In October, Democrats held a six-point lead (49% to 43%) in midterm voting preferences.

While a majority of voters (54%) say that Barack Obama will not be a factor in their vote this fall, more (26%) see their vote as a vote against the president than for him (16%). In February 2010, 24% of voters saw their vote as for Obama while about as many (20%) considered it a vote against him.

At this early point in the campaign, Obama inspires far less enthusiasm among Democratic voters than he did four years ago. Only three-in-ten Democratic voters (31%) think of their vote as being “for” the president. In February 2010, 47% of Democratic voters saw their vote as an expression of support for the president.

Read more: http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats/

---

Anyone who dismisses data like this as an attempt by the "Mainstream media" to depress Democratic turnout is being as foolish as the "skewed polling" folks in 2012. We can be successful in November, but it's going to be a hard slough, and understanding where things realistically stand is the first step.

[davidpdx]

1. It is not good news, but as you said if we work hard

The Senate is going to be extremely close. I think we have to pick off either Kentucky or Georgia to make sure we keep the Senate.

[bigdarryl]

2. Sick of all these polling outfits and the media talking about the democrats are DOOMED!!

I don't remember all this doom and gloom news about the rethugs losing the midterms the last time they lost OR won.Notice how they say Obama isn't a factor in there voting in 2014 BUT at the same time they say he doesn't inspire that many people. GO FIGURE!!!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. I agree

it's extremely aggravating! It's like how voters trust Dems more on the issues but then they have polling showing that most people are going to vote for Republicans anyway!

At the end of the day, all we have to do is get out and vote. An "unenthusiastic" vote is equal to an "enthusiastic" one. One thing that nobody seems to mention is that the GOP base may not wind up being very "enthusiastic" either, particularly now that the GOP has all but thrown in the towel on ACA and will come up "snake eyes" again on #BENGHAZI!

[lostincalifornia]

15. That and the medias constant Democratic and Obama bashing. If there is a validity in this, and

women, labor, the elderly, the working poor, the unemployed, the educators, and so many others demographics who have been helped by Democratic policies allow this to happen, and then wonder why what they took for granted starts to fade away, they have no one to blame but themselves.

Yes, there is a difference between republicans and Democrats,

[Jemon]

33. Are you suggesting that Pew should pretend its poll results were different?

What exactly is it that Pew did wrong here?

[90-percent]

3. I found this news deeply disturbing

I wonder what the strategy of our Oligarch's is to release such news? To discourage Dem turnout? Or make Repubs overconfident so they will stay home? Got me. I just know that's how the game is played these days with our 100% corporate corrupted MSM.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251362635

-90% jimmy

[woo me with science]

9. It may be that the oligarchs who have purchased into both parties now

have decided it's time for a Republican this time.

The incessant bashing of Democrats by the Third Way in our party, and their ostentatious support of even the most predatory policies coming out of Washington, make me wonder if that's not the real goal.

It's not as though the major policies change anymore depending on which party is in power. Both parties are ramming through a corporate agenda. What changes, and what they seek to manage, is the quality of the opposition they will face. There's a lot of rumbling and anger out in the country, and they may have decided it's time for a change.

Depending on which corporate assaults they plan to ram through next, they will decide which party they can most effectively dupe into circling the wagons around their predation, and which party's opposition they'd rather face.

[lostincalifornia]

18. The accuracy of the poll is not as much of a point as the constant negative news that the media has

leveled against the Democrats and this administration for at least 75% of the time. How much of that negativity has been misrepresented, or in a lot of the cases outright false? No one can tell me there isn't any good news about Democrats or Democratic policies, and yet it is extremely hard to find. From my observation the media goes out of its way to avoid any positive news related to Democrats, and that to me is the telling sign that other forces are at work here.

[woo me with science]

4. This is what happens

when Democrats push mass spying, assaults on journalism and whistleblowers, handing over the internet to corporations, corporate education, drilling and fracking, kicking the poor off our major highways, Stay-Out-of-Jail Free cards for bankers, austerity for the masses, and predatory trade agreements that will destroy jobs and slash wages.

The era in which you can claim to represent the 99 percent and then turn around and bash them over the head repeatedly, and then demand votes because the other guy would have bashed you harder, is ending.

People are sick and tired of not being represented by either party.

[dotymed]

6. +100

and maybe a real Progressive party...

[NorthCarolina]

14. That is EXACTLY the situation right there. You can add offering up

chained CPI for Social Security to that list of third-way goals. All they have had for decades now is "who would you rather have making SCOTUS nominations". It worked for a while, but I believe that is no longer a sufficient trade to offset their conservative agenda as you have so completely laid out in your post.

[lostincalifornia]

20. yeah, that is why they are willing to hand it right to the republicans according to the poll

that will show them corporatists.

We gee, maybe ralphy boy can make another run for it as he did in 2000, and we can see how well that worked out. Oh I know, it wasn't his fault, it was the supremes. Only problem with that, is he made enough of an impact in close states to turn the election.

There is a difference in supreme court nominees between Democrats and republicans. There is a difference on women's rights, gay rights, and labor between Democrats and republicans.

Ignore the fact that the Democrats inherited a mess in 2000, and even though they controlled congress, they did not control the blue dogs. A lot of people cannot seem to understand that a Democrat in a blue state cannot win in a red state. Howard Dean understood that, and that was the purposes of his 50 state strategy. Progressive change in red states takes years, decades to change.

[1000words]

30. "lost," indeed.

Even threw Nader in there.

[sorefeet]

5. Depends on what day it is

I'm sick of the bullshit myself. Romney thought he had it in the bag too. I think we are more democrat and we just need the democrats to get their lazy ass out and vote.

[dotymed]

8. But we want to vote

for legislators who will actually represent US.

[lostincalifornia]

21. really? you believe that Bernie Sanders could win in a red state?

[dotymed]

31. If he spent more time here

and his voting record and political stance is given a lot of publicity.

Most Progressives and many Democrats in the South have come to believe that their votes do not count.

Many would be surprised... especially IF their votes counted.

[Helen Borg]

7. It exploits people's ignorance about stats

All these articles are produced by media outlets that have to generate something newsworthy 24/7. So, they end up overinterpreting noise. The best medicine is to step back, and only look at patterns that unfold at a slower time scale. Ignore the day-to-day hysteria.

[riqster]

10. We need to GOTV.

[seabeckind]

11. Oh bullsh!t.

Where do these people get credibility.

They break down the poll by district and then say that indicates that democrats are in trouble in that district.

No sh!t. My district was gerrymandered long ago and hasn't elected a democrat since then. To extrapolate this into a national "trend" is where the bullsh!t comes in. This poll result looks a lot like the distribution in the HOR.

Duh.

Overlay this result with the map of critters in safe districts and what do we see?

How about they ignore all the results from any safe districts and treat the others like what they really are...swing.

Secondly, don't you ever say that if we gotv in my district we'll swing the thing... the only way this district will switch is if we do voter id and get rid of any gop voters. No wait...the Indiana legislature already did that the other way.

The "primary" in most local and national districts in this state are very conservatives against batsh!t crazy conservatives.

Now if you want to start changing these trends, getting people out to vote the way they would usually vote doesn't do a f'in thing. NOTHING!

We need some education in this state and I'm NOT talking about door-to-door. All that does is upset the neighbors. There's a reason for no soliciting signs and a lot of people consider religion and politics to be soliciting.

How about the democrats do an information campaign. Just what the f' do we stand for? Make the gop argue against women's rights. Make that fat-assed bigot face an informed wife...not a barefoot pregnant one.

You know, maybe a democratic platform? One we put out before the popularity contest? Maybe one we can use to judge OUR candidates?

Stop it.

</rant>

[seabeckind]

13. Addendum

A pet peeve of mine is that I cannot comment on stories in the local paper, a USA Today echo chamber. And that is true of quite a few liberal commentors. As soon as we voice a comment that is unacceptable to the fox crowd, that commentor is removed using FB means.

Why isn't there a democratic voice, maybe more than one, in that paper? I'm sure there would be volunteers. I sure would.

But I'm not going to pay for a subscription. I got a disposal as an alternative to wrapping garbage long ago.

And I don't like using my personal FB presence for that.

So here I sit, broken-hearted...mad as hell.

[lostincalifornia]

23. You are right. As far as the Senate is concerned it depends on different factors. Today it would

be very hard if not impossible for a liberal to win in a Senate race. That is why those who jump against blue dogs in red state do not understand Howard Dean's 50 state strategy. The kind of change to get progressives in red states takes years to achieve.

Personally, I think we will retain the Senate. For example, Mark Pryor is not liked by many progressives in other states, but he is NOT representing those other states, he is representing Arkansas?

Just based on the seats that are up, and the layout of those states we probably will lose some Senate Seats, but I believe the lose of the Senate is absolutely wrong.

[heaven05]

16. daunting maybe

the fear mongering, doom and gloom is bullshit. When the vote comes in, the faux newsies will have voted for the worst teahadist possible,true. Yet wit all the ammunition Democrats have, the ACA signup numers, real stories of how it has helped previously hopeless people, Rand Paul and colven bundshit and his miltia, fascist and teahadist backers, Issa, Texas and the attacks on Wendy Davis, the showing of how RW voter suppression is designed to minimize leftist voting numbers even the laziest democrat will be voting. Our democratic leadership just has to step up to the plate and hit that home run called the honest truth of the RW and their fascist masters. Really hit back hard. Just my take.

[davidthegnome]

17. I won't say that polls don't mean anything

What I will say is that it's the votes that count - and the people that count the votes. The primary issue, I think, is to gain a lot more registered voters and push for candidates who are progressive, who have demonstrated courage, compassion, and a willingness to go against the flow. Elizabeth Warren, Dennis Kucinich, Bernie Sanders - people who speak the truth, who are strong enough to be liberal and not to be ashamed of this.

Of course, this is going to require a whole heck of a lot of media coverage and advertisement as well. The TRUE face of the democratic party is better represented by these people (even an independent like Sanders) than it is by many of our more mainstream and blue dog dems.

Let's stop holding our noses and start voting for people we believe in - and if we don't have enough, maybe it's time to run ourselves. I'm sick of letting the oligarchs rig the game, we have the power to stop them, if we're willing to stand up.

I won't dismiss the data - but there is no such thing as an accurate crystal ball with which to tell the future, even scientific methods of polling often turn out to be somewhat inaccurate. We have time, and more importantly, we have the right people on our side.

[ananda]

19. This poll and viewpoint is very biased bs.

The ACA is very popular. In fact, people in red states are screaming for it
and Medicaid.

[global1]

22. I Don't Believe This.....

The Repubs are on the wrong side of every issue. Their major players are out on the talk shows lying and making up stories and embarrassing themselves and that is rubbing off on the People out their that call themselves supporters and have voted for them in the past. Again - Repub friends and neighbors that I talk to are embarrassed to now call themselves Repubs. I'm hearing they will either sit out Nov or will vote for the Dem.

Talk to Repubs for yourself. Ask them if they are embarrassed to call themselves Repubs. In most cases that is what you will hear.

These polls to me are just the opposite of what I'm hearing directly from People that previously were staunch Repubs.

They are "Embarrassed" to call themselves Repubs. The key word here is 'embarrassed'. Use it - it is effective.

[lostincalifornia]

24. I think we will retain the Senate, but with a smaller majority.

[yallerdawg]

25. There's only one thing worse than a Democrat not voting.

That's letting a Republican win because you didn't vote.

[Botany]

26. Unemployment is down (not enough), 17 million people have insurance, and the market is at ...

.... an all time high.

What can the republicans/ corp. media do?

Polls show democrats are doomed and did you hear about Benghazi.

[Shivering Jemmy]

27. Don't dismiss. Do average.

[olegramps]

28. I can only hope and pray that the Democrats get out and vote.

If the Republicans take over the Senate and House it could be catastrophic for the Republic. The only weapon that Obama would have is a veto and if they win big enough that may be overridden. The working class better wakeup to the fact that every program including, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, minimum wage laws, public education, tax laws and voter protection laws will be on the chopping block. I am too old and won't be around to see the Glorious Revolution when the working class has been reduced to desperation.

[L0oniX]

29. Thank you Obama.

The record shows aggressive, proactive pursuit of a corporate agenda...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3152360

...in every policy area important to the One Percent.

This list does not show the President trying to enact a more liberal agenda and being obstructed. It shows him working aggressively and proactively, over and over again, to install corporatists into his administration and to enact a corporate agenda.

Corporate and bank-cozy appointments, over and over again, including major appointments like:
A serial defender of corrupt bankers for the SEC; the architect of "Kill Lists" and supporter of torture, drone wars, and telecom immunity for the CIA; and a Monsanto VP who has lied and been involved in extremely disturbing claims regarding food safety for the FDA. An Attorney General who has not prosecuted a single large bank but wages war against medical marijuana users and *for* strip searches and warrantless surveillance of Americans. Tim Geithner. And now Penny Pritzker.
Bailouts and settlements for corrupt banks (with personal pressure from Obama to attorneys general to approve them),
Refusal by Obama's DOJ to prosecute even huge, egregious examples of bank fraud (i.e, HSBC)
signing NDAA to allow indefinite detention,
"Kill lists" and claiming of the right to assassinate even American citizens without trial
Expansion of wars into several new countries
A renewed public advocacy for the concept of preemptive war
Drone campaigns in multiple countries with whom we are not at war
Proliferation of military drones in our skies
Federal targeting of Occupy for surveillance and militarized response to peaceful protesters
Fighting all the way to the Supreme Court for warrantless surveillance
Fighting all the way to the Supreme Court for strip searches for any arrestee
Supporting and signing Internet-censoring and privacy-violating measures like ACTA
Support for corporate groping and naked scanning of Americans seeking to travel
A new, massive spy center for warrantless access to Americans' phone calls, emails, and internet use
Support of legal immunity for telecoms/warrantless wiretapping
Support of legislation to legalize massive surveillance of Americans
Militarized police departments, through federal grants
Marijuana users and medical marijuana clinics under assault,
Skyrocketing of the budget for prisons.
Failing to veto a bipartisan vote in Congress to gut more financial regulations.
Passionate speeches and press conferences promoting austerity for Americans
Bush tax cuts extended for billionaires, them much of it made permanent
Support for the payroll tax holiday, tying SS to the general fund
Support for the vicious chained CPI cut in Social Security and benefits for the disabled
Social security, Medicare, and Medicaid offered up as bargaining chips in budget negotiations, with No mention of cutting corporate welfare or the military budget
Advocacy of multiple new free trade agreements, including The Trans-Pacific, otherwise known as "NAFTA on steroids."
Support of drilling, pipelines, and selling off portions of the Gulf of Mexico
Corporate education policy including high stakes corporate testing and closures of public schools
Entrenchment of exorbitant for-profit health insurance companies into healthcare, through mandate
Legal assault on union rights of hundreds of thousands of federal workers
New policies of targeting children and first responders in drone campaigns,
New policies of awarding medals for remote drone attacks,
Appointment of private prison executive to head the US Marshal's office
Massive escalation of federal contracts for private prisons under US Marshall's Office


Chilling Legal Memo From Obama DOJ Justifies Assassination of US Citizens
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101654954

Study: "Trade" Deal Would Mean a Pay Cut for 90% of U.S. Workers
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023661805

Obama Appoints Bain Capital Consultant Jeff Ziets to Top Post
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023662209

Obama selects former Monsanto lobbyist to be his TPP chief agriculture negotiator
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023662210

White House: No Subsidies for Union Health Plans
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014594512

Wall Street Deregulation Garners Bipartisan Support Despite Devastating JPMorgan Report
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/19/wall-street-deregulation-_n_2910168.html

The USDA’s Reckless Plan to Decrease Food Safety
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023670859

This is a complete list of Wall Street CEOs prosecuted for their role in the financial crisis
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3653154

Wall Street will get away with massive wave of criminality of 2008 - Statute of Limitations
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022516719Obama seeks longer PATRIOT Act extension than Republicans (December 2013)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x380450

When it comes to civil liberties, apparently Democrats are just as bad as Republicans.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022101960

NSA's Massive New Spy Center to Track Your Emails, Internet Activity, and Phone Calls
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101620852

Obama Quietly Signs Abusive Spy Bill He Once Vowed to Eliminate
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022104861

Obama repeals Magna Carta, asserting powers our forefathers denied to Kings
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101655620

Obama's Memo on Killing Americans Twists 'Imminent Threat' Like Bush
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101654919

Obama no better than Bush when it comes to security vs. civil liberties.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022355307

Obama Admin Seeks Permission TO LIE In Response To FOI Requests - Even To The COURTS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2185303

NDAA on trial: Obama Administration fights ban on indefinite detention of Americans
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101748688

Obama administration complicit with private prison industry: President Obama's IncarcerNation
http://www.nationofchange.org/president-obama-s-incarcernation-1335274655

Obama, Democrats Push to Make Bush Spying Laws Permanent
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022084702

NDAA, signed by Obama, is a direct attack against legitimate protest and dissent
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022064803

NSA Whistleblower: All Americans under constant surveillance, all info. stored, no matter the post
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002193487; http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021935289

Bipartisan Congress Disgracefully Approves the FISA Warrantless Spying Bill for Five More Years
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022087323

While Public & Media Focused on 2nd Amendment, 5th Amendment Quietly Dismantled
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022390581

How the Obama administration justifies extrajudicial killing of Americans,
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022318187

Judge Says Under Law Executive Branch Can Commit Acts That Sure Do Seem Unconstitutional
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022122464

Obama Justice Dept. says wiretap lawsuit should not proceed
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014337039

NDAA Lawsuit- Hedges v. Obama, The Last Thin Line of Defense
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022357078

Federal authorities step up efforts to license surveillance drones for law enforcement
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022383596

Big Banks and FBI worked together vs Occupy
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022095056]

FBI Investigated 'Occupy' As Possible 'Domestic Terrorism' Threat, Internal Documents Show
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022061578

FBI Documents Reveal Secret Nationwide Occupy Monitoring (Updated the OP)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022057064

Public Buses Across Country Quietly Adding Microphones to Record Passenger Conversations
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021965291

Street artist behind satirical NYPD 'Drone' posters arrested
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021920967

The Obama DOJ urged the Supreme Court's endorsement of strip searches.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002521527

Obama Administration Fights to Allow Warrantless GPS Tracking
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1074474

Anonymous to FBI: hey, dudes, maybe you could take a break from...investigating activists....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022145621

Half a billion dollars for drones to spy on Americans
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021876414

From Bradley Manning to Aaron Swartz -- The Government's Inhumane Persecution of Brave Truth Tellers
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022276941

The sight of Army helicopters and the sound of gunfire...on Houston's south side
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022276742

Kiriakou and Stuxnet: the danger of the still-escalating Obama whistleblower war
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022275570

Can the DEA Hide a Surveillance Camera on Your Property?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022237059

Social Media and the Stasi
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021888029

Homeland Security Wants to More Than Double Its Predator Drone Fleet Inside the US, Despite Safety/Privacy Invasions
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014312823

CIA Behind Bizarre Censorship Incident At Alleged 9/11 Plotters’ Gitmo Trial
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022280285

“I Am Wearing My Conviction As A Badge Of Honor.”
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022275128

Meet the Contractors Turning America's Police Into a Paramilitary Force
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12525281

How Secrecy Corrodes Democracy
http://election.democraticunderground.com/101655009

Obama Quietly Issues Ruling Saying It's Legal For The FBI To Break The Law
http://election.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7545687

US Pulls Plug on Iran Cable News (Press TV)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014394770

DHS Watchdog OKs 'Suspicionless' Seizure of Electronic Devices Along Border
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022339091

The Untouchables: How the Obama administration protected Wall Street from prosecutions
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022246632

Obama Orders Pay Raise For Congress
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022095402

Why is Social Security Under Attack from Obama, when it ADDS NOTHING to the deficit???
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022065493

The Untouchables: How the Obama administration protected Wall Street from prosecutions
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022246632

Guess what? Chained CPI is the bright idea of Third Way, the (Corporate) Dem "policy shop."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022021626

...Obama explicitly campaigned on opposing Social Security cuts -- and he just endorsed them (AGAIN)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022019860

Obama's Promises on Social Security: His OWN WORDS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022031544

Bernie Sanders: Chained CPI: An Economic and Moral Disaster
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022381690

wall street pulls the strings: social security under attack in february
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022155427

Obama signs bill cutting 2.2 billion from food stamps
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x309

Obama's New Treasury Secretary Pushes Austerity That Spreads Global Misery
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022652850

Obama appointed Alan Simpson & Erskine Bowles to his goddamned catfood commission...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022633714

Why does President Obama keep Appointing Monsanto Shills to Key Gov. Positions?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022592785

Penny Pritzker..The Subprime Queen...Obama's Pick for Dept. of Commerce
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101665148

Obama's Betrayal of Public Education, Arne Duncan and the Corporate Model of Schooling
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x366410

How can we NOT feel betrayed? These are just ONE day's headlines:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x366410

Obama Approves New Cross-Border Pipeline Benefiting Canadian Oil Sand Producers
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112758698

Pres. Obama: Why are you pushing the Koch Supported Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023563816

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Global Attack by the One Percent
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101634573

TPP: A pact designed to increase the wealth and power of crony capitalists
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023936342

The Obama administration's legal battle against whistleblowers, federal unions.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022672473

Obama’s Escalating War on Freedom of the Press
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023312251

Why Is President Obama Keeping a Journalist in Prison in Yemen?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023300531

Former Top NSA Official: “We Are Now In A Police State”
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024197266

Obama administration asserts that NSA spying cannot be challenged in court
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023296209

The Obama administration is aggressively growing private prisons
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=2670142

When you hear "Third Way", think INVESTMENT BANKERS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024127432

The Rightwing Koch Brothers fund the DLC -- article from '06
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x498414

You do know how the DLC/Third Way was formed? (corporate money, corporate infiltration)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024150961

Third Way VP indicates they fear Elizabeth Warren's influence on the party.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024168867

Majority of Third Way support from Wall Street
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024164622

The Democratic Party's deceitful game
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3928692

[Doctor_J]

32. Somehow a vocal segment of DU is unable to correlate this to election losses

none so blind as those who refuse to see.

[Psephos]

42. Epic post. n/t

[erglerbergler]

34. Caveats

Looking a little more in depth at the poll...

It has 17% of black voters voting Republican (hah!),

and says the sample of Hispanic voters is not shown due to insufficient sample size... considering how Hispanic voters make up a relatively significant portion of the electorate, any random variations in the sample would be magnified when extrapolating to the population as a whole. The fact that they do not supply the Hispanic voter preferences hurts the credibility of the poll.

So a fairly flawed poll.

[Jemon]

35. What percentage of black voters voted Republican in 2010?

In the midterms. That is, the last election where Obama did not run.

I also want you to tell me if the Hispanic vote in 2010 was significantly higher than 6.5%,which is the percentage of Hispanics in this poll (75 out of 1162).

[AnalystInParadise]

39. Actually

the Latino Vote in 2010 was only 8% of the total. I gotta be honest, I live in the El Paso/Las Cruces area, not many here are even talking about voting.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2010/nov/03/us-midterm-elections-2010-turnout-says-a-lot

As for black votes the Teapublicans got about 9-11% depending on whose metrics you look at.

[AnalystInParadise]

40. If Hispanics only made up 8%

in 2010, 6.5% is not that big a stretch, I agree it is too low, but it is not outrageously too low. Michael Tomasky only has the hispanic vote at 8% in 2010 and the African American vote at 10%, plus 4% Asian/other. 22% minority voters with us winning about 16.5% of that vote is not a great place for us to start. If white voters vote 60% or better of the remaining 78% of the electorate (IF this election resembles 2010 at all), we have problems.

It is not much better if we reduce the white vote to 75% of the overall total and keep them at the 2008 level of support at 58%. If we do that and split the minority vote the exact same the Teapublicans still get 49.7%. Close enough for shenanigans. Bottom line if the Pubs get more than 58% of the white vote and the electorate is anything other than the 2008 electorate we have problems.


For us to win back the House and keep the Senate we need an electorate that resembles 2008. Without that, we have a very hard climb ahead of us. It is not impossible but anyone thinking we have this in the bag, or thinking we are better than even money right now is just not paying attention.

GOTV

Tomasky math from 2010:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2010/nov/03/us-midterm-elections-2010-turnout-says-a-lot

[Jemon]

41. One figure has Hispanic turnout as 6.9% in 2010

This 2011 article says Latinos: "also were a larger share of the electorate in 2010 than in any previous midterm election, representing 6.9% of all voters."

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2011/04/26/the-latino-electorate-in-2010-more-voters-more-non-voters/

[Evasporque]

36. Years of gerrymandering and voter obstruction are paying off...

GOP is confident and bringing out the crazy this election cycle.

[LongTomH]

37. We need to get out the vote -- especially women, young people, minorities

In 2012, I walked a mostly black precinct for the Democratic party -- I'm an old, white guy. We need to get out the demographics who will support us.

And, yes, I do support turning the Democratic party back to its populist, progressive roots; but, letting Republicans win elections is no way to do that.

[silvershadow]

38. Whatever. My money is on a great Democratic turnout and results. nt

[Ash_F]

43. Democrats should have been working on 2014 since 2008

"OK we won, commence caving to Republicans for 2 years"

Then 2010 happened.

It is getting a little late to steer this ship back on course now.

[stevenleser]

44. Different polls show different results. Some recent polls show Democrats up.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2014.htm