Russian president to attend informal talks with CIS leaders

[Iterate]

Source: Vestnik Kavkaza

7 May 2014 - 2:08pm
Russian President Vladimir Putin will have an unofficial meeting with the leaders of Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan tomorrow, ITAR-TASS reports.
Putin will hold bilateral talks with the leaders. Collective security will be the main topic of their meeting, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
The leaders will also observe the training process of the Russian Armed Forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will have an unofficial meeting with the leaders of Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan tomorrow, ITAR-TASS reports.

Putin will hold bilateral talks with the leaders. Collective security will be the main topic of their meeting, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

The leaders will also observe the training process of the Russian Armed Forces.

Read more: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/54900.html

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[msongs]

1. Putin's message: You're next nt

[Iterate]

2. Both Belarus and Kazakstan had refused to support the invasion and annexation of Crimea.

Belarus Refuses To Support Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
At a meeting of presidents of the Customs Union on 5 March, Putin desperately tried to gain support on for Russia's invasion of Ukraine from his closest allies, Belarus and Kazakstan.

All his efforts, it would seem, appear to be in vain, as neither Lukashenka nor Nazarbaev publicly voiced support for Russia's aggression in Crimea. For both individuals, it became a dangerous precedent which showed the true nature of Russian politics in the post-Soviet space.

Now, the Belarusian authorities are attempting to re-launch their cooperation with the EU and preparing to host the Ice Hockey World Championship, they know full well that any involvement in the crisis in Ukraine could destroy their painfully reconstructed relations with the West.​
http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-refuses-support-russias-invasion-ukraine-17082

I should point out here that this is one of the rare occasions when dissidents in Belarus were in complete agreement with Lukashenka.

[Iterate]

3. Lukashenka had spoken in support of Ukrainians and Ukrainian unity

and has stalled the signing of the EEU pact. At the occasion of his annual address on April 22nd he said this:

Before the Q&A session President Lukashenka limited the issue of Eurasian integration to a few formal remarks. But when an MP asked him about the prospects for the Belarusian economy after the launch of the Eurasian Economic Union in January 2015 Lukashenka made quite a strong statement.

He said that he would sign the founding treaty only after the removal of all limitations and exemptions from the free trade regime was concluded: “if you want to sign the treaty on the economic union today and lift these limitations in 15 years, as Putin suggests, then we will sign the treaty in 15 years”.
http://belarusdigest.com/story/lukashenkas-state-nation-address-top-5-messages-17618

and more recently...

Lukashenko: Belarus cannot enter the Eurasian Economic Union on an unequal footing
BORISOV, 3 May (BelTA) – Lukashenko: Belarus cannot enter the Eurasian Economic Union on an unequal footing to the detriment of its own interests. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko made the statement while talking to employees of the Belarusian-Chinese car company SZAO BelGee, BelTA has learned.
http://www.news.nom.co/lukashenko-belarus-cannot-enter-the-9299143-news/ (cached)

The EEU agreement signing seems to be continuously postponed. The expense of the Crimean annexation seems to have cut into the amount available to aid potential EEU partners.

But Lukashenka will sign eventually.

[Adrahil]

4. USSR Mk 2 otw... or at least Warsaw Pact, the Next Generation.

They certainly have the right to do it, I guess, but I'm really not looking forward to Cold War II.

[NuclearDem]

5. TNG? I guess Putin's the bald Premier.

[Adrahil]

6. Make it so...... or ELSE! NT

[Iterate]

7. Lukashenka fails to hit jackpot

Lukashenka fails to hit jackpot


30.04.2014

The host of the the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council summit tried to look cool on April 29, but didn't achieve what he wanted.

Moscow is not ready to demonstrate generosity for the sake of the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Crimea has hit its economy. Another reason is that the malcontent allies have nowhere to escape to from the Russian submarine. They will have to sign the treaty, observer Aliaksandr Klaskouski writes on the website Belorusskiye Novosti.

The Belarusian ruler made a bold remark at the beginning of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting: If the parties are not ready to implement the arrangements, the issue of the EEU should be discussed in ten years.

It was an effective cold shower for the high-ranking Russian guest. Vladimir Putin, who agreed there were some differences and proposed to look for a compromise, didn't look bright in this context. However, the professional KGB officer has his own methods to press on opponents, the politologists says.

more...
https://charter97.org/en/news/2014/4/30/96769/

[Iterate]

8. After Gazprom Takeover, Southern Kyrgyzstan Marks 24th Day Without Gas

Meanwhile, in Southern Kyrgyzstan relations are chilly.

After Gazprom Takeover, Southern Kyrgyzstan Marks 24th Day Without Gas
May 7, 2014 - 6:55am, by Murat Sadykov Inside the Cocoon

When Russian state energy giant Gazprom took control of Kyrgyzstan’s gas network last month, the prime minister called the transfer a “historic event.” Gazprom chairman Aleksey Miller promised his company "guarantees a stable gas supply.”

Neither seems very reliable to residents of southern Kyrgyzstan today, the 24th day the region has been without gas.

Four days after the formal transfer ceremony, Uzbekistan cut gas supplies to southern Kyrgyzstan. Residents of Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second-largest city, complain they have been forced to use expensive electricity or cook over wood or dung stoves. Fortunately, the weather is warm. One resident describes a previous cut-off, during winter, when he used seven candles to boil water to make tea for his children.

Gazprom was meant to end such outages. Under the deal, which the Kyrgyz parliament approved in December, for a symbolic $1 Gazprom snapped up Kyrgyzgaz and its property and gained rent-free use of land any facilities stand on. In exchange it took on Kyrgyzgaz’s estimated $38 million debt and pledged some $600 million to improve Kyrgyzstan’s crumbling gas grid. In the long-term, the Kyrgyz hope Gazprom can streamline energy supplies and ease the dire power shortages the country experiences every winter.

more...http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68347

It gets even better, but I can only cite the four.

[Iterate]

9. Moscow not interested in long-term guarantees for Lukashenko

06.05.2014
President Lukashenko’s efforts were in vain – the Kremlin has neither supported his (and the Kazakh President’s) proposal to create a single energy market, nor to abolish oil duty exemptions. Belarus has been prompted to start bilateral negations with Russia on oil supplies, putting her economic, foreign policy, and military independence at further risk. With each new stage, Eurasian integration fails to bring any financial benefits for Belarus, the costs only rise.
...

The SEEC Summit in Minsk was the last decisive trilateral meeting, during which the presidential ‘troika’ was anticipating to close all controversial issues before signing the Eurasian Economic Community’s founding treaty in Astana on May 29th. The Eurasian Economic Community’s founding treaty is scheduled to take effect on January 1st, 2015. However, during the Summit, the allies could not agree on oil duty exemptions, the most sensitive issue for Belarus.

If exempt from paying oil duties, Belarus would earn additional USD 3-4 bln. The Belarusian government could use this money to minimise risks during the 2015 presidential campaign, amid reduced social guarantees for the population.
...

When the time comes, the Belarusian government will sign the EEC founding treaty in a timely manner and on the Kremlin’s terms. Moscow reserves the right to control Minsk’s foreign policy by providing ‘hands-on’ support to Belarus, i.e. in small doses at the last moment.

more...http://belarusinfocus.info/p/6270

That last paragraph seems a bit puzzling.

With the latest planned signing of the EEU on May 29th, a failed Ukrainian federation vote, however invalid, plus any overt military action in Ukraine, would have overshadowed the signing. Any later signing would make the Jan 1 start date for the EEU nearly impossible. An invasion would have made it difficult for Lukashenko to proceed in particular, especially since he's courting EU cooperation and could have simply claim the EEU details were still incomplete. Lukashenko may be a dictator, but he's somewhat constrained and the latest revelations about the Crimean vote can't have helped.

Plus there was this, which certainly would rattle cages in Minsk if it continued to be a topic:

SBU has evidence of Russia's involvement in preparation of 'referendum' in eastern Ukraine with already known results
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has received irrefutable evidence of the Russian side's preparing for and coordinating measures on the holding in the eastern regions of Ukraine of the so-called "referendum" on the creation of the "Donetsk People's Republic," with already known results, the SBU press center reported on Wednesday.

SBU released the audio recording of a conversation between the leader of the Russian Unity movement, Alexander Barkashov (Moscow), and the leader of the unregistered Orthodox Donbass organization, Dmytro Boitsov (Donetsk).

During the conversation Boitsov asks for Russian military support for the successful holding of the so-called referendum on May 11. Barkashov, in turn, proposes falsifying the results of the referendum.

SBU also released audio files with subtitles in Russian, English and German.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/203821.html

Obviously a glorious victory and coronation in Astana were preferred.

[Iterate]

10. Belarusian authorities tighten grip on opposition during World Hockey Championships

Belarusian authorities tighten grip on opposition during World Hockey Championships
06.05.2014
In preparation for the World Hockey Championships scheduled to take place in Minsk on May 9th - 25th, 2014, new hotels and sport facilities have been built, and visa requirements have been lifted for international fans.

The Championship is an important image-making and political event for President Lukashenko who aims to improve the outer world’s perception of the Belarusian authorities, and boost his own ratings inside the country. The Belarusian authorities count on people’s diplomacy and on impressing foreigners with Minsk’s cleanliness and order, and good event organisation. Meanwhile, the authorities have no plans to relax their grip on the opposition, and continue to ignore EU and US demands. Ahead of the presidential ‘troika’ Summit, Belarusian security forces have detained a few opposition activists. Some will be held in custody until the Championship is over.
http://belarusinfocus.info/p/6272

I should have mention this earlier, because it relates to the CIS meeting and matters that follow. For Belarus this has become as big an event for national image as the Olympics would be elsewhere. The occasion has also become an excuse for rounding up activists. Here are two of them:

State Border Committee: Martin Uggla expelled as “he doesn’t like hockey”
8.05.2014

The State Border Committee revealed why the Swedish human rights activist had been denied entry to the country.

The Swedish human rights activist is in Vilnius now, BelaPAN was told by the spokesperson of the State Border Committee Alyaksandr Tishchanka.
...
In January Martin Uggla wrote in his blog that Belarusian visas and accreditation hinder the Ice Hockey World Championship, and specifically that foreign journalists who want to be given accreditation for the championship in Minsk should write about sports only. “All journalists who want to cover the topics not related to the Ice Hockey championship, should seek accreditation from the Foreign Affairs Ministry of the host country, and it is a much more complicated and bureaucratic process,” Uggla wrote.

The Swedish human rights organisation Östgruppen is among the initiators of "Don't Play with the Dictator" campaign aimed against holding the Ice-Hockey World Championship in Minsk.
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2014/5/8/97891/

Coordinator of initiative “Stop drinking, you need to live” detained in Homel
The police detained Dzmitry Karashkou, a coordinator of the Homel-based initiative “Stop drinking, you need to live”, on the morning of May 7.

The reasons and details of the detention are unknown. The man told his friend Kanstantsin Zhukouski on the phone that he had been detained by the police, and policemen wanted to take away his cell phone. Dzmitry Karashkou's phone is switched off now. There's no new information about him, Viasna human rights centre reports.

On May 2, he received several phone calls from the men who introduced themselves as officers of Homel's Savetski district police department and insisted on meeting. “I didn't agree to go anywhere without a summons. They then began to threaten that they would find me. Those who introduced themselves as police officers wanted to talk about unsanctioned events I allegedly organise,” Dzmitry Karashkou said on May 2.
...

On March 11, Dzmitry Karashkou and Stanislau Bulla were detained in Minsk near the Russian embassy with the posters “Putin is enemy of Ukraine and Russia” and “Putin, hands off Ukraine, no war”. Dzmitry Karashkou was sentenced to 15 days in custody, Stanislau Bulla got 11 days in custody.
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2014/5/7/97692/

[Iterate]

11. Kazakhstan Skips CSTO Meeting in Moscow Today(Thursday)

A number of experts are noting that Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev was not present at tonight's emergency meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow, nor did he send representatives to the massive display of Russian armed forces, including the simulation of an ICBM launch on the eve of 9 May Victory Day celebrations.

Instead, he met with Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, the second-highest ranking American diplomat and the Obama Administrator's top expert on Russia.

Thus the CSTO has 5 out of 6 of its members in Moscow including Russia.

Conventional wisdom about the CSTO has said that in order for peace-keeping forces to deploy, which number anywhere from 4,000 to 20,000 in various configurations, a member would have to invite them into their country. Ukraine is not a member.
http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/2698

[Iterate]

12. War Council in Moscow; CSTO Discusses Action in Ukraine

On Thursday evening, an informal meeting took place of of the Moscow-led Collective Treaty Security Organization, Lenta.ru reports. President Vladimir Putin and his fellow heads of state from Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan visited a training session on management of the Russian armed forces. The situation in Ukraine was the main topic of the evening. Observers have speculated that Moscow could use the CSTO in some fashion to run a "peace-keeping operation" in the south of Ukraine with the support of allies in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

The meeting evokes memories of how the Soviet-era Warsaw Pact was used to invade Czechoslovakia to come to the aid of a "fraternal government."

Lenta.ru was formerly an independent website, but recently its editor-in-chief was fired and an editor more compliant with the Kremlin line was installed. Some 39 journalists and editors quit in protest, but the site has remained open and is publishing mainly pro-government news, mixed with some neutral stories on topics like opposition demonstrations. We will continue to monitor the situation.
http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/2696

(the text below is from Lenta.ru and is not a machine translation.)

The visit of the presidents of Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan was not planned in advance. Vladimir Putin summoned Aleksandr Lukashenka, Serzh Sargsyan, Almazbek Atambayev and Emomali Rakhmon to Moscow for emergency talks, the main topic of which was the situation in Ukraine. The invitation had a military sub-text from the outset. The heads of state visited a training about management of the armed forces of Russia. The practice for deflecting and delivering a nuclear strike, in the words of the Russian Commander-in-Chief, went successfully. The Ukrainian question will be discussed today by Putin and in bilateral meetings with his colleagues.
...

In the opinion of experts, escalation of the violence in Ukraine could lead to the necessity of a Russian peace-keeping intervention. Moreover, the preparation of such an operation, essentially, is already underway. Thus, militia have managed to "open" the border in Lugansk Region between Russia and Ukraine for free movement of people and vehicles. Simultaneously, for the last week a group of 20 militiamen managed to destroy several Ukrainian radar stations, thus depriving the Ukrainian army of the possibility of controlling part of its air space. Lt. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems believes that it is necessary to introduce a peace-keeping contingent under the aegis of the CSTO in Ukraine. Aleksandr Sobyanin, director of the strategic planning service of the Association for Border Cooperation is convinced that there is no need to deploy the CSTO for a "peace-keeping operation in Ukraine."

"Russia can announce its decision to introduce a peace-keeping contingent for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from rioting Nazis and appeal with a request to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and a number of other states to support the anti-Nazi position of Russia through participation in the peace-keeping operation in Ukraine," Sobyanin told Lenta.ru.

...

"Events have occurred in Ukraine which do not permit us to quietly sit by the side and watch what is happening there," Aleksandr Lukashenka stated after his meeting with Putin. In the opinion of the Belarusian head of state, above all this concerns the events in Odessa. "This in general leads us to bad parallels. And I see: these parallels have already appeared on the televisions screens. We remember Khatyn, when several hundreds of villages on the territory of Belarus were burned down by the fascists on that very same principle," he said. "Such actions are unacceptable in other countries, and it will be all the more unacceptable if we quietly watch what is going on there. This above all concerns the Russian Federation and Belarus. Naturally, we cannot look at this because those are our people there and they are calling for help and demanding reactions to such things," said Lukashenka, adding that the situation was developing very rapidly.

http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/2696