BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in 2018? An Analytic Look

[tgards79]

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/can-dems-take-house-in-2018-analytic.html

"...What does all this mean for Donald Trump? Trump’s current profile – just over 10 months from the mid-terms – closely resembles that of Clinton and Obama (see a subset of the chart, below). His party is firmly in control with 241 seats, like Clinton (258) and Obama (257). He himself has a wretched approval rating, (using Gallup, for consistency with past presidents’ data) at 38%, well below even the low levels that Obama (45%) and Clinton (46%) held at the time of their midterms.

And Trump’s generic ballot is extremely negative, more negative than even that in Clinton’s time (-7) or Obama’s (-9). There have been a slew of generic ballot measures of late 15 in the month of December), and on average the Dems hold a breathtaking +11 point lead over the GOP (and the one poll that was done after the tax bill was signed showed only a +1 point improvement for the GOP)..."

[old guy]

1. A year from now we will know for sure.

Until then it will all be speculation.

[tgards79]

2. Yes, but...

...at least we have a tool to see how realistic a takeover will be as we follow along the way the next ten months!