BTRTN 2018 Senate Snapshot #3: The Most Complete State-by-State 2018 Senate Election Round-Up

[tgards79]

The latest Senate 2018 midterms update from the BTRTN election analysis crew:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-2018-senate-snapshot-3-most.html

"While on the surface this looks reasonably promising for the Dems, the odds continue to be strongly in favor of the GOP maintaining control of the Senate. There is a path to success for the Dems, and just as Trump found the 78,000 votes he needed to prevail in 2016, so could the Dems in 2018. But right now we peg those odds at a mere 20%. Why so low when the races themselves are adding up to 50 to 50? Basically, there are 12 races “in play,” where the margins are either miniscule (“toss ups”) or close (“leaning”) – and we have the Democrats leading in 8 of these 12. It is a daunting proposition to pull off such a feat, and the odds are against it..."

[Farmer-Rick]

1. All the while little Putin is rigging the numbers

To think you can win this clearly rigged system by playing it straight is crazy.

We aren't going to win crap until we get Russia out of our voting systems. How has such an awful, corrupt and nonsensical party been able to take control of everything? It wasn't because of their good looks or their unpopular platform. How has a party bent on destroying democracy been so successful in a democratic country? It wasn't because they played the voting game straight.

[lagomorph777]

2. Putin's rigging the numbers, but Trump's over-the-top scariness is driving Dems to the polls.

It's a tough call!

[tgards79]

3. The point is...

...we have to work for a win, no one is going to make it easy for us, and if we don't turn the House we have no one to blame but ourselves.

[reggieandlee]

4. Excellent analysis!

Congratulations on a comprehensive and highly analytical assessment of the challenging prospects for winning the senate. More people need to understand how close this is, how crucial it is, and how their votes and their volunteering can be vitally important.