R. Bitecofer's Detailed Explanation of Her Current Election Projection (Spoiler, Huge Win for JB)

[appalachiablue]

'Bitecofer Back, w Detailed Explanation of Her Current Projection' (Spoiler Alert: 88% Biden Win), Daily Kos, 10/10/20.



You can go here, for her very detailed explanation of her projection, but a couple of points:
https://thecycle.news/news/september-2020-election-update

1. Unlike the pulled projection, this time the various battleground states are assessed in the context of co-variance, and she goes into a great deal of detail about how that was done. Beyond my ability to explain in brief, so suggest you go read and see if you think it makes sense. I did tweet her and her co-author as to whether this was a “seat of the pants” formula or based on historical analysis, but haven’t seen a response back yet.

2. Consistent with her view of hyper-partisanship, she points out that a Quinnipiac poll from December, 2019, before the early Biden primary melt-down and subsequent recovery, that showed Biden with a 9 point lead over Trump, and compares that with a September, 2020 Q poll which showed about the same lead (10 points) to demonstrate the locked in nature of things, explaining that all of the variance in between was mainly due to the distortion of the primary race & then the craziness of everything that has happened since then. But it does help remind us that a cult is a cult is a cult.

3. Her 88% probability puts her in the middle of the pack as far as percentage win likelihood, with The Economist now being in the low 90s and 538 at 85%.

- As to senate and house, here are her images related to those arenas:







- MORE,
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/10/1985464/-BiteCofer-Back-w-Detailed-Explanation-of-Her-Current-Projection-Spoiler-Alert-88-Biden-Win

- Rachel Bitecofer, American political scientist
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Bitecofer

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. that is one long, good read. tons of details!

[appalachiablue]

3. Very thorough & I like her results

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. her assessment, the 538 aggregate, Sam Wang, Charlie Cook - all are aligning

on a solid victory.

The one thing that should worry us all is the shit that the trumpers can pull - voter intimidation, issues with voting (voter suppression), cheating, etc - the one thing that the right wing is good at (cheating).

But it will be very obvious if there is funny business, I think.

[appalachiablue]

6. They're a plotting all out now, be prepared, resolved

[elleng]

2. THANKS!

[appalachiablue]

4. Not much longer before Victory!

[Indykatie]

7. Bitecofer Analytical Work is A+++ - She May Have Been Only One Who Correctly Projected 41 Seat

net gain for Dems in the 2018 mid-terms. I'm less impress with her punditry though. She held the position for some time that Biden needed to put Abrams on the ticket to ensure a win. Why anyone would think a novice politician who had never won a state wide race was the best option Biden baffled me.