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Tue Oct 27, 2020, 07:59 AM

BTRTN: The Short Answer: Is This 2016 All Over Again?

Born To Run The Numbers provides a comprehensive perspective on the question all paranoid Democrats are asking: is the 2020 election going to be a replay of 2016?

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-short-answer-is-this-2016-all.html

Excerpts: "There is one question that soars above all the others at this point among Democrats: are we on the verge of repeating 2016? Might the robust lead enjoyed now by Joe Biden somehow morph into another nightmare when all the Electoral College votes are counted? The circumstances on the face of it all seem eerily similar.

"The chart below (posted at BTRTN site), in a nutshell, gives rise to the Democrats’ angst, summarizing polling in the six states that Trump flipped in 2016 to win the election. Biden’s lead over Trump in those states right now is virtually identical to that of Clinton four years ago. And yet she lost each of those states, a 4-point lead on average in the polls on October 26, 2016 somehow becoming a 3-point loss on November 8, a downward swing of 7 points. Might it all blow up again?

"But the short answer is that a Biden collapse, while it could happen, is very unlikely. We are living in different times; these are different candidates; and the race dynamics are completely different. Here are seven reasons why a late Biden meltdown is far less likely than the Clinton one that shocked us all..."

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