Democrats Moved the Filibuster Overton Window

[Uncle Joe]

Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema may be the last in their party to support maintaining the procedure.

(snip)

But a series of events over roughly the past week suggest that by forcing the voting-rights fight to a climactic, if doomed, vote, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has accelerated the development of a new consensus position in the party. These rapid-fire developments include:

(snip)

It’s difficult to identify any plausible Democratic senate candidate this year who has not endorsed rolling back the filibuster, at least for voting rights, and many of them for other issues. “It does feel like the world is changing so much that the Manchin stance isn’t going to make sense for anybody, anywhere,” Kristin Ford, NARAL’s vice president of communications and research, told me.

That consensus extends from 2022 Senate contenders who identify with the left, such as Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes and Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, to those who identify much more with the center, such as Representatives Conor Lamb and Val Demings, who are seeking Senate nominations in Pennsylvania and Florida, respectively. It also extends from the challengers running in purple swing states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to candidates in Republican-leaning terrain, including Demings in Florida, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, Representative Tim Ryan in Ohio, and Abby Finkenauer in Iowa. “This is no longer just a progressive issue—it is a consensus Democratic position,” Zupnick said.

(snip)

The irony is that while Senate Republicans are now professing their fealty to the filibuster, Democrats and many academics who study Congress believe that the GOP is highly likely to retrench or revoke it if it blocks their agenda the next time they hold unified control of the House, Senate, and White House. That prospect suggests that whichever party gains the electoral advantage in the next few years, Manchin and Sinema are only delaying the inevitable. In fact, by blocking any federal response to the voter-suppression legislation advancing across so many red states, the two Democratic holdouts are increasing the chances that it will be Republicans who next seize unified control of Washington. And when Republicans hold that power, few would be surprised if McConnell, who has repeatedly discovered new Senate “rules” that advantage the GOP, finds another timely justification to reverse his unflinching defense of the filibuster this week.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/01/manchin-sinema-democrats-filibuster/621298/

[FBaggins]

1. We won't know that until November

nt

[Uncle Joe]

2. We won't know that we will wake up tomorrow morning until we do but

most of the time, plans are still made for it.

The filibuster will be changed or eliminated one way or the other, whether it be the Democratic Party or the Republicans.

There is simply no going back.

[FBaggins]

3. So... failing to pass something is proof that it's going to pass?

I don't think there's much evidence for that.

If it hurts us in November, it may not come up again for a very long time.

[Uncle Joe]

4. Do you honestly believe that voting against democracy in favor of the filibuster

will help the Republican Party in November, particularly after all the hearings from January 6th?

[FBaggins]

5. Yes

It will help in some cases and hurt in others… but given the specific seats that are in play, it hurts us this year in the senate.

[Uncle Joe]

6. I believe

after public hearings of the January 6th insurrection combined with the fact that all Republican Senators voted against democracy in favor of the filibuster will enable the Republicans to get their ass handed to them in November.

[FBaggins]

7. I hope to eat crow

But it doesn’t appear likely.

There’s also a huge hole in your theory. If they really were “voting against democracy” - then November will be even worse than I expect… because democracy just lost

[Uncle Joe]

8. They voted against Democracy just as they voted against it in those states

in which they made voting more difficult and more at risk, however the modern Republican Party as a whole has always been against Democracy at least since Nixon/Reagan so in one sense it's nothing new.

Having said that actually voting against democracy in favor of the filibuster particularly after the insurrection attempt of January 6th has made that party too toxic for too many Americans.

Even Republicans are running away from the party, remember Reagan's doctrine, "no Republican to speak ill of another" that has been their mantra for decades but they left it behind when they waged an attempted coup against the United States Government.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/11th-commandment-gop-republican-reagan-trump-214982/

[FBaggins]

9. So every poll for the last few months has been lying?

Too much wishful thinking - likely based on the assumption that how we see things is how most people see them.

I’ve learned that painful lesson too many times.

[Uncle Joe]

10. I'm saying political reality will go through a major shift as the year progresses.

Last edited Thu Jan 20, 2022, 09:11 PM - Edit history (2)

There are simply too many adverse dynamics going against the Republican Party.

Why do you believe the Republican Party is so desperate to take the responsibility of counting the votes from neutral election officials and give it to partisan state legislatures.

They know that Trump was a lying sack of shit but they also know he and his ilk left them in an untenable political situation.

The Republican Party is not stupid, just corrupt to the core.

[FBaggins]

11. So you aren't denying the current political reality...

… you just have faith that it will all get better in the next few months?

Well… I can only say that I hope you’re right. But it would be the largest/quickest turnaround in history.

[Uncle Joe]

13. That's correct I don't deny that November is not current political reality insofar

as any polls or corporate media prognostication are concerned.

I'm also not promoting blind faith but strong confidence based on current and likely future events.

[in2herbs]

12. I watched an interview with AOC and she vented about Schumer not bringing bills to the

floor for a vote unless there's enough votes to pass. Since the failure of the filibuster, why doesn't Schumer require a voice vote on all bills that are scheduled for a vote? Then all the Ds who are campaigning for the senate would have to do is cite the gov web site where these stats are kept --- or they could post a link to the gov website on their web site.

[Uncle Joe]

14. I believe momentum will dramatically increase in the Senate to have votes

for if nothing else public accountability purposes.

Public accountability being sacrosanct in any well functioning democracy.