"The Day After Russia Attacks What War in Ukraine Would Look Like--..." by Alexander Vindman

[Budi]

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The Day After Russia Attacks
What War in Ukraine Would Look Like—and How America Should Respond
By Alexander Vindman and Dominic Cruz Bustillos
January 21, 2022
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks

have not moved any closer to a diplomatic solution or a reduction of tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border. Although Russia has not completely abandoned diplomatic pretenses, the chasm between Russian and Western expectations has been laid bare. Russian officials have made clear that they are not interested in proposals focused solely on strategic stability or on military exercises, or even on a moratorium on NATO membership for Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks nothing short of the complete dismantling of Europe’s post–Cold War security architecture and a rollback of fundamental international agreements governing states’ rights to self-determination—an outcome the United States and its partners and allies will never accept.

Meanwhile, despite assurances that Russia has no plans to “invade” Ukraine—the Russian military has been occupying Ukraine’s territory and fighting a war on Ukrainian soil since 2014—the military buildup along the Ukrainian-Russian border has continued unabated. Most recently, military equipment from Russia’s Eastern Military District has been moving westward while attack and transport helicopters as well as support units have been moving into place for a full-scale offensive. Russia also justified a military buildup north of Ukraine by announcing that it will stage joint military exercises with Belarus that will run through February 20. Russian forces are already being concentrated near the southern and southeastern borders with Ukraine. Additional steps remain before an operation will commence, but the live-fire drills and exercises that are currently taking place and the arrival of logistics units are indicative of a force preparing for action.

Earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden predicted that Putin would ultimately decide on some form of invasion or incursion. “Do I think he’ll test the West, test the United States and NATO, as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will,” the president said at a press conference. “My guess is he will move in,” Biden added.

CONTINUED...

[Budi]

1. CONTINUED: "A major military conflict in Ukraine would be a catastrophe"..

A major military conflict in Ukraine would be a catastrophe.
It is an outcome that no one should crave.
But it is now a likelihood for which the United States must prepare.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Presuming that diplomacy fails, there are three scenarios that could play out.

Which one comes to pass will depend in large part on how Putin decides he can best achieve his ultimate goals: crippling Ukrainian military capabilities, sowing turmoil in the Ukrainian government, and, ultimately, turning Ukraine into a failed state—an outcome that Putin seeks because it would bring an end to the threat of Ukraine as an intractable adversary and increasingly serious security challenge.

Putin loathes the prospect of a thriving and prosperous democratic model in the cradle of East Slavic civilization, a development that could provide Russian citizens with an increasingly palatable and inspiring framework for a democratic transition in their own country. Faced with declining influence and control over Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy, the Kremlin can achieve its objectives only with military force.
MORE...
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks

[Budi]

2. Putin will move forward until he gets what he wants or some force stops him.

[Ray Bruns]

3. That is what happened the last time a man started demanding

territory in Europe that wasn't his. It ended after six years, Europe lay in ruins, and 60 million dead.

Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

[Budi]

5. Yup. Vindman spoke clearly & honestly about the consequences

He sugar coated nothing & that is how the message of battle needs to be spelled out.

[question everything]

4. He was on Nicole Wallace earlier today and was frightening in his prediction

of certainty that we will fight the Russians.

[Oneironaut]

6. If Russia attacks, most Conservatives will support Putin.

That will be our biggest roadblock. They’ll do anything to destroy Biden, even if it means helping Putin win the propaganda battle.