Putin can't take much more of this: What lies ahead, defeat or apocalypse?

[marmar]

Putin can't take much more of this: What lies ahead, defeat or apocalypse?
With the sinking of the Moskva, Putin's war has become an almost unthinkable disaster. That increases the danger

By LUCIAN K. TRUSCOTT IV
PUBLISHED APRIL 16, 2022 8:00AM


(Salon) Well, the Big Lie, Russian style, has begun. It's not exactly like losing an election — that's never going to happen in Vladimir Putin's Russia — but losing a guided missile cruiser, the Moskva, the most important warship in Russia's Black Sea fleet is, let us say, just a little hard for the big guy to stomach back at the Kremlin, or the dacha, or whatever bunker he's keeping himself in these days.

But not to worry! Russki spinners were on it before the big ship even hit the bottom! Uh … hmm … I've got it! A fire broke out on board! It spread to the ammunition stores! There was an explosion! That's the ticket!

Anything but the obvious: it was sunk by two Neptune anti-ship missiles fired from Ukrainian soil. So what does Putin do? Why, he has one of his factotums deliver a diplomatic protest known as a démarche from the Russian embassy in Washington to the Department of State threatening "unpredictable consequences" unless the U.S. stops shipping advanced weapons to Ukraine.

The Russian threat came on the heels of a warning by CIA Director William J. Burns that Putin might resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons to counter his losses on the battlefield and now the high seas. "Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they've faced so far, militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons," Burns said in answer to a question from former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, who was one of the architects of the agreement that removed nuclear weapons from Ukraine and other former Soviet client states 30 years ago. (You remember that jewel: Russia would take the nukes from Ukraine and the rest of the vassal states in return for providing their security.) Burns is a former ambassador to Russia who dealt directly with Putin while serving in Moscow and is the Biden administration official most familiar with his thinking.

....(snip)....

Which makes you wonder why Putin hasn't learned any lessons over the last 50-plus days. He appears to be readying a new offensive in eastern Ukraine that will be a carbon copy of the one he launched against Kyiv and Kharkiv in February and March. The Pentagon is being very open about what it is "seeing" on the ground in both Russian staging areas and in Ukraine itself, as it was before the invasion on Feb. 24. If the Pentagon was correct the last time about both Russian intentions and movements — and it was — the chances are very strong it's correct this time as well. It would be safe to assume that the Ukrainian response to the new Russian offensive in the east will be at least as effective as it was before, given the new weapons systems that even now are making their way to Ukraine's army. These include attack helicopters, long-range artillery and ground-to-ground rocket launchers, and the MIG-29s from Poland that are finally going to join Ukraine's air arsenal. ...........(more)

https://www.salon.com/2022/04/16/putin-cant-take-much-more-of-this-what-lies-ahead-defeat-or-apocalypse/

[HUAJIAO]

1. The MIGs.. I hope this is true and it happens ASAP.

[lagomorph777]

16. +1000 and the artillery and rockets.

[empedocles]

2. What lies . . . ahead

' . . . The Times of London reported on Monday that Putin had fired as many as 150 officers in the Federal Security Bureau (FSB) Fifth Service, a department of the Russian intelligence service set up to operate within countries of the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine. The purge included jailing Sergei Beseda, the former head of the Fifth Service, in Lefortovo prison in Moscow, a facility long used by the KGB to interrogate and punish political prisoners in Soviet times. Putin appears to be scapegoating the FSB for the intelligence failures that have led to the disaster in Ukraine as the war heads into its third month with no real military gains he can point to as victories. . . . '

https://www.salon.com/2022/04/16/putin-cant-take-much-more-of-this-what-lies-ahead-defeat-or-apocalypse/

[My guess is that many officers/officials know that there will be scapegoating, imprisonment or worse. Seems like all the predictable, various defensive maneuvers by these personnel - will create further disorder and incompetence, up and down the russian/putin, command chains - everywhere

[KS Toronado]

7. When I first read about Putler firing 150 officers from the FSB

I wondered if there was a coup taking shape or if Putler was simply paranoid about one.
Time will tell I guess, probably only after he's out of power.

[lagomorph777]

17. Putin punishing his people for telling him what he wanted to hear...

will, as you say, only create further chaos within his ranks.

[empedocles]

18. TY. Every rusker may blame everyone else. Hope those habits, plus the

spring mud, keep the ruskers wheels spinning.

[dutch777]

3. The risk of RU using tactical nukes is probably very real. With no care for civilians...

...why not? Yes, the West said there will be "serious consequences" if chemical or nuclear weapons are unleashed but if you are Putin, what do you care? More sanctions? Really, and I turn off the gas to the EU. Military incursion or No Fly zone put in place? Highly unlikely because dead NATO troops cannot be stomached and, oh yeah, RU turns off the gas. I am honestly surprised that Putin did not nuke Kyiv when the offensive stalled. Take out Zelensky and the operational elements of Ukraine governance, and assuming he could get the RU troops to actually move forward while the shock of a nuke strike was still being processed by the West and Ukrainians are reeling from the blow, he has access to the heart of the country. This is a dangerous game indeed.

[Eyeball_Kid]

4. There would literally be "blowback" if Putin uses any kind of nuke.

Why? Because of the Prevailing Westerlies. UKR is WEST of Russia. Any nuclear fallout from the use of nukes, especially in the Donbas region, will naturally drift into RUSSIA and contaminate farmland, cities, and towns.

This would, in normal times, be considered a VERY BAD DECISION by Russia.

But let's not assume that reasonable people are in charge of war. Were there an ounce of reason involved, Russia would never have invaded.

One of the other kinds of fallout from the war is that Putin has destroyed all of the gravitas that he's carefully cultivated since he's been the ruling autocrat in Russia. He had far right political factions in Europe eating out of his hand. Fascist movements sympathetic to Putin were, and perhaps still are, on the rise. But all of that is changing as Putin demonstrates what he would have in store for any kind of political dissent if he had power over other jurisdictions. As an autocrat, he'd simply kill the opposition and rule with an iron hand. His behavior shows those who are marginally sympathetic to autocratic rule that they're either all in or they are targeted for elimination. There's no middle ground with Putin.

[stopdiggin]

5. thank you. Russia's reputation is in the toilet

and sinking fast. And Putin has squandered any 'standing' (either for himself or the state) that he may have garnered on the international stage. And that - (for this poster child of megalomania) - undoubtedly burns like fire.

20 years on, Russia (and it's people) will be poorer, more isolated, and more backward. (quite the opposite of their grandiose visions) This is a lesson that has staying power. And it's going to be hung around his neck like a bell on a cat.

[flying_wahini]

6. Putin won't live forever.

Yes, His people will suffer for decades unless somebody takes out Putin.
I think there will be an attempt on Putin’s life that may trigger more attempts as the Ruskies grow more desperate. I am hoping sooner rather than later.

[True Blue American]

8. Your post reminds me of what this country will be in 20 years

If Republicans gain control again. You can see how far we have regressed under Republican Governors and their Key Stone Kops bills and actions.

[empedocles]

9. Part of this current extremism, is the upcoming far right primary season.

[fierywoman]

12. And let's remember that in 2022, 25% of Russian homes do not have "indoor plumbing"!

[dutch777]

15. I thought about the fallout issue but just not sure he cares. He covers up what is inconvenient.

And while significant and widespread radiation sickness in RU proper would be impossible to cover up, I am just not sure it would worry him that much if he thinks using the nuke option is the difference between "winning" and not. But winds are fickle and fallout could hit Belarus, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and others as well which would be an issue for Putin allies and with NATO. I don't see Donbas as a likely target. Rather Odessa, Kyiv and other cities more solidly in Ukrainian control and key to their functioning as an operational economy and country. And more to shock and break the spirit of the Ukraine people than any other military purpose. I am not sure that the other autocratic styled politicians are as reticent as one would hope. Trump and all too many Repugs and their talking heads don't really seem to be getting it and LePen in France seems similarly ignorant and more than ready to further ignore, downplay or downright continue to enable Putin's actions.

I suppose my bottom line question is, if Putin does go nuclear, what does the West really DO in response? Strike their military staging areas inside Russia, widens the war to probably WW3. Blockade their ports and air access...same issue of broadening. More sanctions...hardly a deterrent. I certainly agree that there is no middle ground with Putin, which makes good options hard to come by.

[jgmiller]

10. I disagree I think that's one step too far

The best use of a nuke is the threat of using a nuke. Once you use them the threat is now reality and the other side won't break.

If he were to use tactical nukes I think the realistic response from NATO would be an immediate cruise missile strike on the Russian ammunition bases where we know their tactical nukes are located and their delivery systems. We would use Putin's own rhetoric against him, he's done this terrible thing now we are going to make sure he can't do it again. We would be very careful not to hit any of his strategic missile sites so he doesn't get the idea we're preparing for a first strike.

Second, clearly we would provide air cover in Ukraine to the ground forces and third I think the rest of the Black Sea fleet would join the Moskva.

Would this stop Putin? No not at all and he would probably try something else but it would give even more of his remaining generals more to worry about and think that maybe they should stop following his orders.

[ChazInAz]

13. Wouldn't it be terrible

If Red Square and Lenin's Tomb were turned into a large, smoking crater? Just in case Vlad got frisky.
That could be done with conventional cruise missiles.
It would be so sad.

[wnylib]

11. Not nukes. I think it will be cyber attacks

or assassinations.

[Farmer-Rick]

14. A warning to all future warring dictators

One man can not successfully win a war today. No matter how much control he thinks he has.

Look at all of Putin's failures. He made all those bad decisions himself. His Generals don't give him advice they followed orders. It's the same reason why TFG's coup plot failed. One brain is never enough for such complicated rapidly moving event such as a modern war or overthrowing a crumbling democracy.

Even Hitler who was more successful than most warring dictators, failed in the end. Most successful warring dictators start out with very trusted very capable co-conspirators some more than others. Eventually these once trusted supporters are killed or sidelined. Trump never had smart, capable co-conspirators...maybe Barr was the best of all of them. But TFG mostly got other stupid people to do his bidding. TFG was never able to get smart people to do what he needed done....though they frequently gave him their money.

Putin, TFG and most warring dictators are doomed to fail. But until they are crushed by their own incompetence, they can create some really awful horrors.

[NJCher]

19. In addition to

Tfg never having smart or capable coconspirators, he failed to take the American governmental bureaucracy into account2 million employees, all of whom are accustomed to a democracy, not an authoritarian regime.