An alternative analysis of the New Hampshire Primary

[lees1975]

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2024/01/an-alternative-analysis-of-new.html

For the amount of attention and news coverage that has been focused on Donald Trump since he left office in 2020, the number of votes he has picked up in the two early nomination contests, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary, have been surprisingly low. For all of the triumphalist declarations of victory, it has become clear that there is a significant segment of the GOP that is not going to support Trump even if he is the GOP nominee. And while I don't want to give the media coverage in general too much credit, he's been so over-exposed that it is possible a lot of Republicans have come to the realization that giving him another term in the White House would be a political disaster for them.

In New Hampshire last night, 45% of those who showed up to cast a ballot in the GOP primary, including independent voters who went for Haley by massive margins, did not vote for the guy who has been proclaimed as savior, the "only" one who can resolve America's problems, and the god of the whole MAGA world. And in exit polls and analysis of both Iowa, where the state GOP is ultra-conservative and far to the right, and New Hampshire, where it is less so, but still relatively conservative and sometimes effective in electing candidates to office, a third of Republican voters are declaring that they will not support Trump if he is the party nominee.

But, putting this in perspective, and using it to build analysis that is reliable in predicting the outcome of a nationwide election, this is really bad news for a candidate like Trump, who once held the office he is running for, and so has a sort of "incumbent" advantage. If he's hit a ceiling within the Republican party, then the numbers will not add up to an electoral college advantage. He lost the independent voters who showed up to vote in the GOP primary by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. And for all of his blabbering about unifying the party, as the other candidates dropped out of the race, and endorsed him, it was Haley who benefitted from their absence, not him. That had to hurt.

[2naSalit]

1. A lot of hype goes along with...

This turd polishing attempt.

[Jilly_in_VA]

2. Even as a a write-in

Biden beat the Slobfather, although only by a few percentage points, 54.4% to 54.2%. However, considering that Joe didn't campaign and was only a write-in, I consider that pretty good news.

[70sEraVet]

3. I was comparing the numbers of the Iowa caucus and NH primary.

And i agree with your statement about Haley benefitting from the absence of the other candidates. Which implies that a large percentage of those Republican voters are looking for ANY alternative to Trump.
The Republican leadership has to be scared sh-tless at the prospect of disillusioned voters staying home!

[lees1975]

4. That's where the polls blew it.

They were claiming that the voters for the other candidates were going to go to Trump more than to Haley. Didn't materialize. His predicted total came down several percentage points.