Nate Silver: The Impact of the 47% Comment

[Stuart G]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate Silver
September 28, 2012, 8:30 am

After a secretly-recorded videotape was released on Sept. 17, showing Mitt Romney making unflattering comments about the “47 percent” of Americans whom he said had become dependent on government benefits, I suggested on Twitter that the political impact of the comments could easily be overstated.

“Ninety percent of ‘game-changing’ gaffes are less important in retrospect than they seem in the moment,” I wrote.


But was this one of the exceptional cases? A week and a half has passed since Mr. Romney’s remarks became known to the public — meaning that there’s been enough time to evaluate their effect on the polls.There’s a case to be made that they did damage Mr. Romney’s standing some.
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Nate has raised his prediction for Obamas win..it is now 83 % chance of winning
.....look at these charts included in this column...
According to him, the lead is widening dramatically...

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. I posted the chart here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251110724

[gcomeau]

2. I'm just waiting...

...to see if the Now Cast hits 100. It's sooooo close...

[dsc]

3. it won't

until the day after the election.

[Ash_F]

4. The Romney voters I know didn't even blink

I guess when you're committed, you're committed.

[tclambert]

6. Somebody is changing their mind. Romney's support has slipped.

It isn't just undecideds deciding to go with Obama. Romney's poll numbers have gone down.

[Stuart G]

7. There are so many stories here at DU that account for those Republicans who have change thier mind.

These stories of course are thw word of the person who posts them..
But, if they represent 2 to 3 percent of voters that will indeed vote and have always voted Republican, that will
indeed account for the descrepency..So many hundreds of thousands of Republicans were turned off by the 47 percent
comment, that if votes are counted fairly, it will be a landslide in my opinion.

This comment, about 47percent, has gotten more coverage than I ever thought ...I think that is a game changer..and for good.
Those people's minds are made up, they will not vote for Romney.

[Ash_F]

8. Yeah, I guess I am in super red land.

When I brought up that Romney's Yacht flew a Cayman Islands flag one of them said "I sure he has a lot of other Yachts that fly American flags."

You can't make this up.

[tclambert]

5. RealClearPolitics shows 265 electoral votes leaning Obama's way

versus 191 leaning Romney's. Five more!

Without toss-ups, it goes to 347 to 191. Every toss-up state shows Obama with a slight edge.