What's Happening in the Persian Gulf Explained

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http://motherjones.com/politics/2012/01/whats-happening-persian-gulf-explained

The basics: Iran and the United States appear to be heading for a showdown in the Persian Gulf. Amid already-high tensions over Iran's advancing nuclear program, the US has imposed harsh new economic sanctions on the regime in Tehran. The sanctions have throttled Iran's economy, and the country has responded by threatening to shut down the Gulf to all shipping traffic. Iranian officials have also threatened military action against the United States and its allies in the region if they don't back off. Two US aircraft carriers are en route to the region.

How has the situation escalated? Over New Year's weekend, the Iranians announced that they'd made their first-ever nuclear fuel rods, a major step forward in building a nuclear bomb. Then they test-fired three anti-ship missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, a 34-mile-wide choke point in the Persian Gulf through which approximately 20 percent of the world's crude oil is transported. An Iranian admiral told state TV that the shots were a warning to America: "The control of the Strait of Hormuz is completely under our authority [too]," he said, warning that Iran would attack "any enemy" that endangered Iranian interests. In response, the US has sent two aircraft carriers steaming toward the Gulf to replace the USS John C. Stennis, which just ended its own Mideast deployment. "Iran advises, recommends and warns them [the US] not to move its carrier back to the previous area in the Gulf because Iran is not used to repeating its warnings and warns just once," a general told state media.

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Will Iran actually shut down the Strait? It doesn't seem likely. While Iran could certainly cause problems, closing down the Strait would in fact be difficult for it to do. According to Reuters, "Iran would not be able to sustain a line of ships to block the Strait because it mainly has smaller boats that do not have the ability to stay in open waters in a coordinated formation for days." Meanwhile, both Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Navy have since backtracked on the threat. Mahmoud Mousavi, a Deputy Commander in the Iranian Navy, told state media Sunday that Iran "does not intend to impede maritime shipping in the area." Threats to close the Strait are also nothing new; Iranian officials for years have claimed that they would shut down the Strait (it's never happened). As Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a candidate for Iran's parliament, told the Washington Post: "Our threat will not be realized. We are just responding to the US, nothing more."

How does this affect me? Expect the price of gas to stay high. Crude oil futures jumped significantly Tuesday on international jitters over the brinkmanship, and some analysts are predicting that even a short Gulf blockade could send the cost of a barrel of crude over $150, a 40 percent spike from current levels. "The ever-growing frequency of intense sabre-rattling and muscle flexing between Iran and the US should keep the markets jittery and vulnerable to sudden price jumps," market analyst JBC Energy reported Tuesday. Volatility in prices could get even worse in light of zero spare capacity among big oil producers such as Saudi Arabia.

[tabatha]

1. There is actually a lot more.

Russia, Syria and Iran - there are problems in Russia where citizens are inspired by the Arab Spring; Syria also inspired by the Arab Spring; Iran whose own Arab Spring was crushed mercilessly, does not want to see the changes in Syria and Russia that the citizens do. I read on another blog that the missile firing and rod announcement was just a BS distraction from Syria.

It is quite interesting that "pundits" write stuff on other countries without really knowing what is going on.

[Old and In the Way]

2. While I tend to agree that neither Iran nor the US will start the conflict purposely,

the potential for some individual to initiate a strike - by accident or by intention - could escalate things at a pace that would preclude rational over-rides.