The Shocking Cost to Taxpayers of a Shutdown
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/09/30/Shocking-Cost-Taxpayers-Shutdown?nopaging=1
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Morgan Stanleys Vincent Reinhart and Ellen Zentner estimated the shutdown would have a direct impact on gross domestic product growth.
"Compensation of non-defense employees and civilian defense employees makes up about one-fifth of real federal spending and about 1.5 percent of GDP. Eliminate a third of that in a shutdown as non-exempt workers stay home, and GDP is haircut 0.5 percent. Annualized, this reduces quarterly GDP growth by around 0.15 percentage points per week of shutdown," they wrote in an analysis of the shutdown.
Meanwhile, Mark Zandi of Moodys Analytics believes that a shutdown lasting three to four weeks would cut growth by 1.4 points. Without a shutdown, Zandi predicts that the economy would grow by 2.5 percent for the year. A prolonged shutdown would slide that growth to 2.3 percent.
According to the Congressional Research Service, the last government in 1995 and early 1996 shutdown, which lasted 26 days, removed $1.4 billion from the economy ($2.1 billion in todays dollars). Federal government contractors were hit especially hard, CRS found.
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