History Tells Us: Winning Iowa Doesn’t Mean Jack

[GoLeft TV]

Every candidate is hoping to leave Iowa with the Iowa bounce – a wave of support that victors typically experience after coming in first during the first caucus. But in recent years, that bounce hasn’t carried the winner of Iowa to the White House. For example, in the 2012 Republican caucus, Rick Santorum took Iowa. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won for the Republicans, and in 2004, Dick Gephart took the title for the Democrats only to later drop out when it became clear that John Kerry was the favorite.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

1. Certainly less than 50%

Since only one candidate can win the WH, and one from each party will win Iowa. So pointing to those 3 Iowa winners in years the OTHER party won the WH seems particularly pointless.

[Jarqui]

2. When you're coming from the place where Sanders started

and the media has largely ignored your campaign, I think making a good showing in Iowa is more important.

[Plucketeer]

3. +1000 nt

[CoffeeCat]

4. You are absolutely incorrect. Not even close

First off, Dick Gephart did not win the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 2004. John Kerry won. Gephart came in fourth.

Secondly, the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses has gone on to win the Dem nomination 80 percent of the time:

Obama on the Iowa caucuses in 2008--He won the Dem nomination.
Kerry won the Iowa caucuses in 2004--He won the Dem nomination.
Al Gore won the Iowa caucuses in 2000--He won the Dem nomination.
Walter Mondale won the Iowa caucuses in 1984--He won the Dem nomination.
Jimmy Carter won the Iowa caucuses in 1980--He won the Dem nomination.

1992--Tom Harkin, senator from Iowa won. Bill Clinton did not compete in the Iowa caucuses that year because it was obvious that Harkin would win.

Edited to add: You cannot compare the Democratic caucuses to the Republican caucuses. Iowa Republicans are Evangelical nut jobs. They rarely pick the candidate who goes on to win the Republican nomination. Those cats are a different breed. They've picked: Santorum, Huckabee, and Pat Robertson came in second once. Yikes!

[Uben]

5. Dem nomination?

The way I read it, it said they didn't go on to win the whitehouse, not the dem nomination. Other than Obama, none of the ones you listed did.

[lame54]

6. but the goal is to win the nomination...

the guy in the vid conveniently moved the goal post

[CoffeeCat]

7. The caucuses are about winning the Democratic nomination

I don't think the Iowa caucuses (or anything about the primary process) should be held accountable for what happens in the GE.

Regardless, the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses has gone on to to win the Democratic nomination 80 percent of the time.

[Bubzer]

8. Proving that the Iowa caucuses do matter

[Tiggeroshii]

9. Kerry won Iowa in 2004

Oh shnap, AND he got the nomination. There are definitely exceptions tot he rule, but they are few and far between. Huckabee is one of them. There is also a consistency that if a candidate were to win both of the first two states, they will most likely go on to the nomination. Again, there are exceptions to the rule, but they are few.