11 Mar: Ukrainians Ruin Russian Urgent Deployment of Troops - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 381: March 11

The Russian command realized that even if they suppressed the revolt and forced the marines to conduct another offensive operation, it would just be another catastrophe. They decided to urgently relocate a rifle brigade in this region and separate Wagner forces detachments, when Ukrainians conducted an extensive HIMARS strike and destroyed the main transportation center that connected east and south.

Recent social media footage confirmed that the Russian command decided to replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade with the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade. It looks like they understood that the demoralized soldiers that watched half of their brigade die over the course of 3 weeks would not be capable of conducting prolonged offensives.

Nonetheless, their problem did not end here because the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade started demanding Russian military command to provide them with more artillery shells and ammunition before they replaced the marines. However, even if they receive all the necessary supplies, armor and ammunition, this one-for-one replacement does not represent a Russian reinforcement of the offensive effort.

Internal dynamics within the Russian military is likely driving the potential resumption of costly offensives in the short term. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reportedly ordered Eastern Military District commander Muradov to take Vuhledar at any cost to settle widespread criticism about the lack of progress and significant losses in the Vuhledar area.

It looks like Muradov managed to convince Shoigu during their recent meeting that they need significantly more manpower and equipment reserves to follow through on Shoigu’s reported instructions and that a mere substitution of one brigade with another does not represent a notable fraction of the reinforcements required because locals continue reporting about the increased movement of Russians forces in the Mariupol area.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces would need to advance upwards of 24km from the current frontlines around Vuhledar for this offensive to support operations elsewhere in the Donetsk region. In order to achieve it, Russians continued relocating troops to this region.

As you might have noticed, Russians are always using columns with civilian buses in order to transfer their manpower from Donetsk to Mariupol. This is because there is no railway connection between these two points. There is one railway, but it goes right along the front line, which makes it inoperable.

In order to constrain the Russian transfer of troops, Ukrainians conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian transport hub in Volnovakha. Their main target became an auto transport enterprise with a lot of buses. Geolocated imagery confirmed that Ukrainians inflicted severe damage to the building and, according to Russian sources, destroyed at least 10 buses. This is almost half of the potential column that Russians usually use for relocating forces.

Today Ukrainians have also reportedly conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian base in Mariupol. Geolocated footage indicated that the target of the strike became the base located in the western part of the city, near the airfield. Around a week ago, Ukrainians destroyed here several ammunition depots, so it is highly likely that today's target became forces concentrations, especially given that the Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor recently stated that Russians established a lot of camps where they stationed the newly arrived troops.

Overall, Russian attempts to resume costly offensives around Vuhledar signal that Russians continue to misallocate already degraded forces to an operation that they are unlikely to carry out. The Institute for the Study of War pointed out that to make operationally significant gains, Russians would need to achieve a rate of advance that Russian forces have not achieved since the first months of the full-scale invasion. But because of personal motivations of the commanders involved, Russian forces in the area may resume these operations nonetheless.