John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term 'the Jeane Dixon effect', which references a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions.[1] Many of Dixon's predictions proved erroneous, such as her claims that a dispute over the islands of Quemoy and Matsu would trigger the start of World War III in 1958, that American labor leader Walter Reuther would run for president of the United States in the 1964 presidential election, that the second child of Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and his young wife Margaret would be a girl (it was a boy), and that the Soviets would be the first to put men on the moon.[20][21]

Economists and financial gurus do the same thing.

Archae

(46,344 posts)

11. Jeane Dixon was a triumph of PR over facts.

Reply to raccoon (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2021, 07:41 PM

Feb 2021

Just like Sylvia Browne.

She didn't "predict" JFK's death, she said the President may be killed, in his second term, and that labor would be the big issue.
She also said Nixon would win.

Her "predictions," those that weren't really vague or totally obvious, were always dead wrong.
Always.

keithbvadu2

(36,887 posts)

12. Start with 200 people

Reply to raccoon (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2021, 10:16 PM

Feb 2021

Start with 200 people

Tell 100 that stock A will go up. Tell 100 that A will go down.
Whichever way it goes, you have 100 that ‘know’ you were right.

Tell 50 that stock B will go up. Tell 50 that B will go down.
Whichever way it goes, you have 50 that ‘know’ you were right.

Same for 25 and 25.

Same for 12 and 13.

Same for 6 and (6) 7.

You wind up with 6 (7) that will give you a glowing recommendation for your financial wisdom.

keithbvadu2

(36,887 posts)

13. Headline you never see: Psychic wins lottery AGAIN! 10 in a row.

Reply to raccoon (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2021, 10:19 PM

Feb 2021

Headline you never see: Psychic wins lottery AGAIN! 10 in a row.

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